Kansas State Wildcats vs. West Virginia Mountaineers Point Spread Pick from Scott Spreitzer: October 1st 2016
Kansas State Wildcats vs. West Virginia Mountaineers
Point Spread Pick: Kansas State +3.5 (October 1st 2016)
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I’m taking the points with Kansas State on Saturday. We had the Mountaineers last week and watched them fail to put away a BYU team that was ready to fold the tent. WVU made late-game mistakes, including a major unforced miscue inside the Cougar 10-yard line in a spot that would have likely wrapped-up the cover. But the Mountaineers have been known to make their share of mistakes, while Bill Snyder-coached teams rarely beat themselves. K-State is 16-for-16 in the redzone this season and brings the better stop-unit to the battle, ranked 7th against the run, and #1 in pass defense and total yards allowed per game. The Wildcats have already traveled to Stanford where they were within six points at 19-13 with less than three minutes to go in the game until a late, Christian McCaffrey 41-yard TD run. Until then, K-State had held Stanford to 231 yards of total offense in 57+ minutes of action. The Wildcats enter on a 20-8-1 ATS record against teams with a winning record, while the Mountaineers have dropped six in a row ATS against teams with a winning record. We’ll back Kansas State as they aim for their 5th straight win & cover over West Virginia. Kansas State plus the points on Saturday. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.
Missouri Tigers vs. LSU Tigers
Football Over-Under Betting Pick: Over 53.5 points (October 1st 2016)
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Ben Burns delivered a PERFECT 3-0 SWEEP at the ballpark on Tuesday. That brings him to a WHITE HOT 16-5 his L21. Long known for his excellence with O/U plays, Ben has currently NAILED EIGHT STRAIGHT TOTALS. In addition to having cashed five of last week’s six college plays, Burns is now 9-4 the L2 weeks in the “pros,” a SUPERB 65-38 ATS his L103!
The LSU offense has under-achieved thus far. Thats led to an 0-4 ATS record and was among the reasons that Les Miles (and offensive coordinator Cam Cameron) just got fired. The struggling offense has also led to an 4-0 “under” mark through four games. With Ed Orgeron taking over on an interim basis and Missouri coming to town, that “under” streak should have an excellent shot at coming to an end on Saturday.
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Orgeron had this to say: “…we’re going to spread the ball around a little bit, do some different things, change the style of play. There’s a lot of things on offense we’ve done well running the football. We want to have a different passing game. We want to be more creative, find ways for the quarterback to get the ball down the field throwing it.”
While the competition wasn’t admittedly pretty weak, Missouri just scored 79 points last week. It was the second time in three games that Missouri topped the 60-point mark. Missouri is averaging 569.5 yard per game on the season. While the number has climbed a little from its opener, I still believe its a little too low. Take a look at the Over.
Burns was 12-3 Fri/Sat/Sun, 9-2 on the gridrion, a PERFECT 4-0 w/ Saturday’s TOP plays. He’s now an EPIC 55-35 ATS w/ his 2016 football. Going back further finds him at an 113-76 ATS, a SICK 60% with his L189 on the gridiron, all against totally unbiased lines. If this “ain’t your first rodeo,” you know how AWESOME those numbers are. Jump pn board and ride the wave!
Minnesota Golden Gophers vs. Penn State Nittany Lions
College Football Pick: Minnesota +3 points (October 1st 2016)
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Penn State is still licking their wounds after an absolute throttling at Michigan last week where Jim Harbaugh never called off the dogs against an injury riddled Lions defense. I exposed this mis-match with a premium play laying 18.5 points and Michigan which was a no sweat winner for anyone who was willing to lay the points and realize Penn State is not at 100% on the defensive side of the ball.
On the other side of the ball for Penn State is an offensive line that is not in sync, and they yielded 6 sacks last week and the offense was woeful to say the least. This is not good news as a veteran and well coached Golden Gopher teams heads to Happy valley this week with a very formidable run game where they are out rushing opponents by 109 years per game, and a capable QB in Leidner who is a dual threat through the air on the ground. It is troubling that Penn State is without all 3 starting LB’s and allowed 365 yards rushing last week that plays right into Minnesota’s strength.
Minnesota is undefeated to date and head into this game as statement game for them with a signature win on the road against a conference opponent, and Penn State is 0-6 against the Las Vegas Line their last 6 conference games. I cannot count on Penn State to rally here with a depleted defense in search of some bodies to stop a solid run unit and a Gopher team who also has a capable QB who can utilize play action passing with success as Penn State loads up to stop the run.
I have no issues with taking points on the road with Minnesota here who should clearly take advantage of Penn States issues on defense and the fact they are a cover machine on the road at 9-3 against the line their last 12 road games.
Minnesota 24 Penn State 20 – Take Minnesota +3
- Tony George and his wares this weekend – a 4-Pack of Winners plus my weekly Hidden gem. CFB at 66% YTD! Also tune in the Tony George Show on SB Nation Radio and Sirius 93 on Sunday mornings 9-11 AM EST for the breakdown and Las Vegas Twist on this Sunday’s NFL Games.
Carolina Panthers vs. Atlanta Falcons
Week 4 NFL Pick: Panthers -3 (October 2nd 2016)
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Setting the scene: Carolina went to the Super Bowl last season, but has gotten out to a poor start so far in 2016/17, coming into Week 3 sitting at 1-2. Atlanta returns home after two straight road victories, most recently pulling away for the 45-32 win at New Orleans on Monday night. We think the “hungry” visitors are the correct call in this matchup.
The Panthers: It’s been a tough start to the year for Carolina. But with three straight divisional contests, starting with Atlanta, then Tampa Bay at home next week, followed by a game at New Orleans before their “bye,” we’re expecting the Panthers and to risk life and limb today. Also note that Carolina is 3-1 ATS in its last four as a road fav of three points or less and interestingly, 6-2 ATS in its last eight games played in the month of October.
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The Falcons: They look primed for a letdown here after their big win over the Saints on national television. And with two tough road games on deck, including at Denver and Seattle, it’s not too hard to imagine the home side getting caught “looking ahead” to that difficult part of its schedule.
The bottom line: Also note that Atlanta is a poor 2-9 ATS in its last 11 following a divsional contest and 0-6 ATS off a win against a division rival. Consider a second look at the PANTHERS in Week 4.