RSSCategory: College Football Picks

Clemson vs. Alabama BCS National Championship Over-Under Betting Pick from Ray Monohan: January 9th 2017

| January 9, 2017

Clemson Tigers vs. Alabama Crimson Tide
BCS National Championship Over-Under Pick: Over 51 points (January 9th 2017)
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Sometimes there is nothing wrong with a rematch. Last year’s title game won by Alabama was one of the better ones in recent memory with Deshawn Watson almost single handedly leading Clemson to victory.

This time around it looks like he has a lot more help on both offense and defense giving Clemson a great chance to win their second ever national title.

Alabama is certainly not going to roll over though. They once again have the best defense in the nation and their offense, even though it is led by a true freshman quarterback is as diverse as any in the country.

Jalen Hurts has answered every test but this will definitely be his greatest one yet. Clemson has terrific defensive talent too.

All season long there was rumblings that Watson might have peaked last season. He was much more of a running threat last year for sure but this season he has already thrown for more yards and touchdowns than a year ago with one more game to play. Is this a sign of maturity?

Want to improve his draft status?  Who knows but I am confident he will put his legs to good use against Alabama.

Both teams breezed through the semi-finals with Clemson especially having an easy time of it. That kind of performance can’t not influence bettors so maybe there is some value on the Alabama side who was workmanlike in their win over Washington. Makes for some interesting hedging opportunities.

Some trends to consider: Over is 4-0 in Crimson Tide last 4 games in January. Over is 3-0-1 in Crimson Tide last 4 vs. ACC. Over is 4-0 in Tigers last 4 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.

Last year’s game was a thriller but I think this one might be more predictable.

Bama has been beating up on teams all season and are tough to stop once they get rolling.

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Iowa Hawkeyes vs. Florida Gators Bowl Game Point Spread Pick from Jimmy Boyd: January 2nd 2017

| January 2, 2017

Iowa Hawkeyes vs. Florida Gators
Bowl Game Point Spread Pick: Iowa +3 (January 2nd 2017)
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I like the value here with Iowa, who I trust a lot more to show up in this game. Bouncing back from a loss in a conference championship game is really hard to do. That’s not the only factor here that has me concerned with the Gators being motivated.

Florida is  a team that has had a ridiculous amount of players who dealing with injuries. They have 5 players out for the season and another 17 players listed as questionable. It’s hard to take advantage of all the extra practice time with that many players sidelined.

Another key factor here is the Gators lost defensive coordinator Geoff Collins to Temple. While some coordinators stick around until after the bowl, Collins is not with the team. Randy Shannons will take over. Given how much Florida relies on their defense, this is a huge loss that’s getting overlooked.

Iowa has already beat a team very similar to Florida in Michigan, who is a better version of the Gators. Speaking of that win over the Wolverines. That was a major turning point for the Hawkeyes. The followed that up with a 28-0 win at Illinois and 40-10 win over rival Nebraska. Not only are they riding a wave of momentum, this game means a lot.

That awful showing against Stanford last year will serve as a huge motivator for this Iowa team. A lot of the players who were part of that game are back this year. The Hawkeyes also haven’t won a bowl game since the 2010 Insight Bowl.

The other big thing here is that this Iowa defense should be able to keep Florida’s offense in check. The Gators have got some of the worst QB play in the country. The Hawkeyes finished 24th in the country in total defense (352.9 ypg). It’s also a unit that was playing it’s best at the end of the year. They allowed a mere 23 points over their last 3 games combined.

Hawkeyes are 24-9 ATS in their last 33 after allowing 125 or less rushing yards in 3 straight games. They are also 7-0 ATS in their last 7 road games off a SU win. Florida on the other hand is 1-9 ATS in their last 10 after scoring 17 or less in 2 straight games. Take Iowa!

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Kentucky vs. Georgia Tech TaxSlayer Bowl Over-Under Betting Pick from Jack Jones: December 31st 2016

| December 30, 2016

Kentucky Wildcats vs. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
Bowl Game Over-Under Pick: Over 62 points (December 31st 2016)

Two of the top rushing offenses in the country will be on display when Georgia Tech takes on Kentucky in the TaxSlayer Bowl. The Yellow Jackets sit 10th nationally with an average of 257.4 yards per game on the ground. The Wildcats rank third in the SEC and 16th in the country with 241.3 yards per game themselves.

This Georgia Tech offense is led by senior Justin Thomas, who passed for 1,454 yards while also rushing for 562 yards this season. He led game-winning drives through the air against both Boston College and Georgia to close out the season. Freshman Dedrick Mills has rushed for 602 yards and 11 touchdowns in only eight games and should be primed for a huge day on the ground.

Kentucky features a pair of 1,000-yard rushers in Stanley Williams (1,135 yards, 7 TD, 7.1/carry) and freshman sensation Benny Snell (1,057 yards, 13 TD, 5.9/carry). Stephen Johnson was a steady hand at the quarterback position with 1,862 passing yards, 12 touchdowns and only six interceptions while averaging 8.1 yards per attempt this season. He did a remarkable job after taking over for Drew Barker.

Kentucky averaged 42.0 points per game in its final three contests. It scored 36 points and racked up 635 total yards in a 36-49 loss to Tennessee. The Wildcats also beat Louisville 41-38 in the season finale while gaining 581 total yards against a very good Cardinals defense.

Since both teams prefer to run the ball, the reason I like the OVER here is that both defenses struggle to stop the run. Kentucky allows 225 rushing yards per game and 5.1 per carry on the season, while Georgia Tech gives up 174 rushing yards per game and 4.8 per carry. Kentucky’s opponents only average 190 rushing yards per game and 4.7 per carry on the season, so it is giving up 35 yards and 0.4 per carry more than they average. Georgia Tech’s opponents average 164 yards per game and 4.3 per carry, so it is giving up 10 yards and 0.5 per carry more.

Kentucky is 7-0 to the OVER in non-conference games over the last two seasons. The Wildcats are also 7-0 to the OVER off an upset win as an underdog. The OVER is 12-4-1 in Yellow Jackets’ last 17 non-conference games.  The OVER is 4-1 in Wildcats last five vs. ACC opponents.  Look for plenty of offensive fireworks in this game Saturday.  Bet the OVER in the TaxSlayer Bowl.

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Indiana Hoosiers vs. Utah Utes Foster Farms Bowl Point Spread Pick from Jack Jones: December 28th 2016

| December 28, 2016

Indiana Hoosiers vs. Utah Utes
Bowl Game Point Spread Pick: Utah -5.5 points (December 28th 2016)
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The Indiana Hoosiers are a mess right now. Kevin Wilson resigned amid allegations of player mistreatment on December 1st, and these players will miss their leader. By all accounts, Wilson was a demanding head coach, and he would have kept the players focused for this bowl game. I think that is a big question mark now as these players will treat this more like a vacation right now instead of a business trip.

The Utes always treat their bowl games like business trips. In fact, they are 15-4 in their last 19 bowl games, including 9-1 under Kyle Wittingham, which is the best winning percentage (90%) amoug coaches in NCAA history. The Utes have gone 5-1 in their last six meetings with Big Ten opponents, which includes two wins over Indiana dating back to 2001.

“The biggest factor in our bowl success is the way our players approach the game and the work they put in,” Whittingham told reporters. “Our guys are excited to head to California which is right in our recruiting footprint.”

Indiana didn’t exactly look like it wanted to go to a bowl game in its season finale against Purdue. The Hoosiers survived a 26-24 scare as 21-point home favorites against the Boilermakers, who were one of the worst teams in the Big Ten this season. That effort really has me questioning their motivation for this game as well.

The Hoosiers managed just 269 total yards while committing four turnovers against an awful Purdue defense. They turned the ball over at least four times in four games this season, and QB Richard Lagow threw 16 interceptions on the year. Now they’ll be up against a Utah team that thrives off of turnovers, getting 28 takeaways on the season. Indiana’s offensive line will be overmatched by a dominant Utah defensive line led by All-American DE Hunter Dimick, who led the conference with 14.5 sacks.

Utah was better than its 8-4 record would indicate. The four losses came by a combined 19 points this season. The Utes’ offense got a huge boost when senior RB Joe Williams came out of retirement. He registered five 100-yard games en route to 1,185 rushing yards, which is the seventh-best mark in single-season Utah history despite missing four games. Another weapon is punter Mitch Wishnowsky, who won the Ray Guy Award with the best net punting average in the nation (44.9).

The Utes are 41-20-2 ATS in their last 63 non-conference games. Utah is 6-0 ATS in its last six vs. Big Ten opponents. The Utes are 5-1 ATS in their last six bowl games. The Hoosiers are 0-4 ATS in their last four neutral site games. Indiana is 5-18 ATS in its last 23 games on two or more weeks of rest. Utah is 31-13 ATS in its last 44 when playing with two or more weeks of rest.  Bet Utah in the Foster Farms Bowl Wednesday.

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