Handicappers Picks

West Virginia Mountaineers vs. Duke Blue Devils
The second of two national semifinals is usually the Final Four’s featured Saturday matchup. Such is the case when West Virginia battles Duke in Indianapolis. Click here to bet on this game at Betus.com

The Week That Was: West Virginia
Basketball junkies could live a long time and not see another game like the one West Virginia played last Saturday at the Carrier Dome in Syracuse, N.Y.

Placed in the East Regional final against the Kentucky Wildcats, coach Bob Huggins knew that his Mountaineers would have to defend really well in order to knock off the top-seeded Wildcats. As it turned out, West Virginia did play solid defense, but it’s also hard to deny that Kentucky missed many makeable shots. Kentucky crushed West Virginia on the offensive glass, 22-9, and used those extra rebounds to kick the ball to wide-open shooters. However, the Cats were cold in upstate New York. They hit only 4 of 32 3-pointers and missed their first 20 attempts behind the arc. Kentucky hit 19 of 35 shots inside the three-point line, but the long ball didn’t drop. As a result, the second-seeded Mountaineers marched on to Indianapolis, 73-66.

The game was also weird because the Mountaineers did something remarkable in the first half against Kentucky. WVU hit 8 of 15 3-pointers, enabling the Big East Tournament champions to remain competitive despite failing to hit a single two-point shot before halftime. (That’s not a joke.)

The Week That Was: Duke
The Blue Devils and coach Mike Krzyzewski are headed back to the Final Four for the first time since 2004. A gritty, blue-collar effort from a team normally thought of as a bunch of soft, finesse-oriented players enabled Duke to defeat Baylor, 78-71, in the South Regional final on Sunday.

Duke’s Lance Thomas – a very unheralded and sometimes criticized forward – produced back-to-back offensive rebounds which led to game-breaking three-point field goals from guards Nolan Smith and Jon Scheyer. It was because of Thomas that Duke snapped a 61-61 tie inside the four-minute mark of regulation and powered past the Bears down the stretch. Duke did hit big shots, but not before the Blue Devils got to work on the glass and outworked a long and active Baylor team that was playing in Houston, a relatively short commute from its campus in Waco, Tex.

To put the importance of offensive rebounding in perspective, Duke snagged 22 offensive rebounds and converted them into 23 second-chance points. Just as instructively, Duke rebounded 22 of its 39 missed shots, which is better than 50 percent. That’s an amazing performance on the glass, and it carried Coach K to his 11th Final Four at Duke.

Outlook & Pick:
Duke has better pure shooters, but West Virginia is long. The Mountaineers have multiple 6-foot-7 defenders with large wingspans that can clog passing lanes and make it hard for shooters to get clean looks. Duke’s Jon Scheyer will need to get free against the 1-3-1 zone WVU coach Bob Huggins is likely to throw at him. On the other side of the divide, West Virginia – despite its three-point shooting festival in the first half of the Kentucky game – is not a good shooting team. The Mountaineers’ best offense is often a missed shot followed by an offensive rebound. Considering the fact that Duke used its own rebounding prowess to defeat Baylor, it’s safe to say that offensive rebounding will be a very big key in this national semifinal. Ultimately, West Virginia has been living on the glass for larger portions of this season. Give the Mountaineers a very slight edge.

College Basketball Betting Pick: West Virginia
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Butler Bulldogs vs. Michigan State Spartans
The 2010 Final Four tips off Saturday evening at Lucas Oil Stadium, as the hometown Butler Bulldogs will take on the Michigan State Spartans in a very even matchup. Click here to wager on this game at Betus.com

The Week That Was: Butler
Butler carried the banner for mid-major programs by working its way to the first Final Four in school history. Coach Brad Stevens, at the young age of 33, led his team to college basketball’s promised land by overseeing a masterful defensive effort in a 63-56 defeat of Kansas State last Saturday. The seven-point win in the West Regional final brought out the very best in a Butler team that wins with a very simple formula: defense, resilience, and late-game composure.

For the third straight NCAA Tournament game, Butler led for much of the proceedings but then fell behind with less than six minutes left in regulation. Just as they had done against Murray State and Syracuse, the Bulldogs faltered as the second half wore on, but regrouped to pull out a close win in the final few minutes.

In this game against second-seeded Kansas State, the fifth-seeded Butler boys trailed, 52-51, with just under five minutes left. Then, they clamped down on defense and held KSU to just two points in the next four and a half minutes. Butler’s guards held the Wildcats’ top two scorers – Jacob Pullen and Denis Clemente – to just 32 points on 11-of-30 shooting.

The Week That Was: Michigan State
The Spartans, behind legendary coach Tom Izzo, are headed to their sixth Final Four in the past 12 seasons, an absolutely remarkable feat in the frail and extremely competitive world of major college basketball.

Michigan State punched its ticket to a second straight Final Four by topping Tennessee, 70-69, in a thrilling Midwest Regional final last Sunday in St. Louis. The one-point win carried the fifth-seeded Spartans past the sixth-seeded Vols in a game that looked like a matchup of evenly-seeded teams.

Neither team ever held a double-digit lead, as MSU and Tennessee fought until the final horn to see who would advance to Indianapolis. Tennessee had a chance to take the lead with 12 seconds left, but UT’s Scotty Hopson missed a tiebreaking free throw attempt. Michigan State rebounded the ball and sped downcourt. Forward-turned-ballhandler Draymond Green made a nifty pass to teammate Raymar Morgan on the right low block. Morgan drew a foul and hit a free throw to give Sparty the lead with 1.8 seconds left. After a timeout, Tennessee missed a halfcourt heave at the buzzer, and Michigan State had done the deed again.

Outlook & Pick:
Both of these teams were number five seeds in their respective regions, so they’re evenly matched. Butler is playing in its home city and is healthier than the Spartans, who will be without point guard Kalin Lucas and will have two players – forward Delvon Roe and guard Chris Allen – in great pain on Saturday. (Both Roe and Allen will play.) Michigan State’s big advantage comes from its coach. Tom Izzo has earned a reputation for being the best March coach of the past decade, better than Duke’s Mike Krzyzewski, who will be coaching the second game on Saturday in Indianapolis. This game should be played in the 50s and be very close. If Michigan State has a chance to take the lead in the final seconds, Izzo will draw up a set play that will get the job done. Sparty will win by a single basket.

College Basketball Betting Pick: Michigan State
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Purdue seems to in fine shape after surging past Texas A&M in the second round. Even without Robbie Hummel, the name most often used in March Madness betting debates, injured for the entire tournament the fourth-seeded Boilermakers have been making plenty of noise in the South Region. If they can somehow find a way to muscle past Duke, everyone will stop thinking that this team can’t make it to the promised land without the versatile Hummel.

Small ball almost never wins in March Madness betting, but has successfully rolled out a lineup that boasts a lineup of guys under 6-foot-6 to victory. Entering the tournament with a 0-6-1 ATS record did nothing to bolster any hopes that Purdue would be any match for their opponents in the tournament or the oddsmakers.

But here they stand at 2-0 SU/ATS overcoming a +2.0 line against them in a 63-61 victory over a sternly talented Aggies team. They’ve shown the type of resolve that you’d hope and expect out of a champion, and all the while they’ve done so with a chip on their shoulder.

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Yet Duke has been a team that has feasted on teams that don’t pose any true threat in the frontcourt. While it’s easy to hope that Purdue will keep the good times rolling for their basketball betting backers, their March Madness championship dreams are headed towards nightmare territory. The Blue Devils are matchup nightmare for any team that wishes to play small ball with them.

The biggest threat to Purdue’s continued perseverance stands at 7-foot-1 and is named Brian Zoubek. The vindictive center for the Blue Devils scored 14-points and hauled down a game-high 13 rebounds against the California Golden Bears. Zoubek’s mere presence is going to make the thought of dishing the ball underneath, or driving the line, unthinkable.

Zoubek isn’t alone in the height department. Brothers Mason and Miles Plumlee, along with forward Ryan Kelly, all stand at 6-foot-10. Rebounding will be a struggle for the Boilermakers. They ranked just 259th in the country with only 32.2 rebounds per game on foreign territory.

So if Purdue wants to make this a shootout, they’re going to have to be red hot. Senior guard Jon Scheyer is a very capable point man, and he’s a lethal shooter when he gets going. Though he’s only averaged 10.0 points per game in March Madness, he hasn’t really needed to take over games since Duke is playing so damn well. They’ve beaten both of their opponents so far by an average margin of 22.0 points.

Duke is also 2-0 SU/ATS thus far in the tournament and the oddsmakers have just missed the mark when pegging a betting line for the Blue Devils. Scheyer and company covered a -24.5 point line in the first round with a score of 73-44. Then they more than doubled the spread against California, a -6.5 point line that was cleared by +8.5 points.

As far as bets go, Duke looks like one of the best bets thus far. They have a pancake South Region to compete in and have decimated all comers so far. With Hummel, this would be a completely different lineup, but until Duke give me a reason to doubt them in March Madness betting, they clearly have my vote.

Furious Free Pick: Duke -8.5 (OVER)
Article Written By: Tim Furious
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West Virginia vs. Washington
Free Pick: Under 141 (March 25th 2010 – Jimmy Boyd)
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Plays Under on neutral court teams where the total is between 140 and 149.5 points, WVU in this case, after allowing 60 points or less 3 straight games, against an opponent that has scored 75 points or more 2 straight games, are 26-7 since 1997, 16-4 the last 5 seasons and 13-2 the last 3 seasons. We are only seeing 135.3 total points scored in these games on average. West Virginia’s defense has really tightened its screws, holding its last 5 opponents below 60 points. The Mountaineers have also held 5 of their last 6 opponents to below 40% shooting from the field. WVU’s defense has even succeeded against good shooting teams this season. In fact, WVU is 6-0 Under when playing away from home against good shooting teams, like Washington, who make 45% or more of their shots, after 15+ games this season. Take the Under.

North Carolina vs. Mississippi State
Free Pick: North Carolina +7.5 (March 20th 2010 – Wunderdog Sports)
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The Tar Heels are not used to the NIT, but with a talented youthful team, it isn’t a bad spot for them to get some experieince, and an 8 point win over a talented William & Mary team that beat Wake Forest this season, shows they have come to play, not go through the motions. The Bulldogs were shunned by the NCAA tournament committee and they are not happy to be here. They played a lackluster game vs Jackson State, but won on pure talent alone. This one won’t come as easy. The Tar Heels have owned the SEC, where they are a perfect 10-0-1 ATS in their last 11 encounters, and overall 43-19 ATS in non-conference games. The Bulldogs might squeeze out a win here, but the Heels are capable, and certainly are the odds on favorite to get out of this one, inside a big number. I’ll go with North Carolina here.

Louisville vs. California
Free Pick: California (March 19th 2010 – Doc’s Sports)
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Free Play from Doc’s Sports. #838 Take California over Louisville (Friday 9:55 pm CBS) California played a brutal schedule to open the season but they have finished strong winning six of their last seven games. The PAC-10 was bad this year but Cal has talent, experience, size, and coaching. Louisville had a major drop-off in talent this year and if they do not make shots from the arc, I see them losing this game by double-digits. The Cardinals shot under 45% this season from the field. As good of a coach as Rick Pitino is, Mike Montgomery is no slouch either. Louisville is just 1-4 ATS in their last five NCAA Tournament games. California is 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall. Don’t forget to sign-up for Doc’s NCAA Tournament Game of the Year which goes on Friday!

Purdue vs. Siena
Free Pick: Purdue -4 -110 odds (March 18th 2010 – Matt Fargo)
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When the matchups came out on Sunday night, one team that stood out to me was Siena. This is a very veteran team that has won in the tournament before. In 2008, the Saints defeated Vanderbilt by 21 points before losing to Villanova. Last year, they defeated Ohio St. in overtime before falling to Louisville. My opinion changed once the lines came out a few hours later however. I expected Siena to be catching at least eight points against Purdue but the number came out anywhere between 3.5 and 4.5 depending on the shop. As of Tuesday morning, the number sits at 4 pretty much across the board and this is a huge overreaction to the Purdue situation. The Boilermakers lost Robbie Hummel for the season back on February 24th against Minnesota and he is no doubt a huge loss which likely takes Purdue out of making any sort of big run during this tournament. There was talk of a possible number one tournament seed before Hummel went down and his absence was definitely taken into consideration when these seedings were announced. It did not help that the Boilermakers lost to Minnesota by 27 points in the Big Ten Tournament but I still think the seeding is a spot lower than it should be. This is still a very solid team that returned four other starters from last season and it will be up to center/forward JaJuan Johnson to pick up the slack in the post. The frontcourt was thin to begin with and it is even thinner now but the matchup here should not matter much. The backcourt is loaded and this time of year, a solid backcourt is key to making a tournament run. E’Twaun Moore is the only double-digit scorer up top but the depth of the backcourt more than makes up for the lack of another viable scorer. Purdue has a 1.28 assist/turnover ratio and the top three guards are all hitting better than 72 percent from the free throw line, another huge advantage. Taking nothing away from what Siena did this season, but it is lucky to be here. It won in overtime over Fairfield in the MAAC Championship thanks to a big second half comeback and after two years of NCAA Tournament upsets, it will not be sneaking up on anyone. The Saints defeated no other notable team this season as it went 0-4 against other tournament teams. Siena is once again going to be a public choice but the value clearly lies on the favorite. 3* Purdue Boilermakers

Northern Iowa vs. UNLV
Free Pick: UNLV -1 (March 18th – John Ryan)
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The 8/9 matchups are always very competitive games and very hard to predict consistently. The sports handicapping model shows a 5* graded play on UNLV. Supporting this graded play is a series of game dependent angles based on the model projections. Here is just one, but under scores the theme that UNLV will be able to run and shooting above 40%. UNLV is 8-4 ATS this season, 24-9 ATS the past 3 seasons, and 67-39 ATS since 1997 when shooting between 40 and 46%. UNLV HC Kruger is also very good at preparing his team for an anticipated close game. Note that he is 31-12 ATS (+17.8 Units) when the line is +3 to -3; 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) in road games versus teams who average 6 or less steals/game on the season after 15+ games in all games he has coached. UNLV is also in solid roles based on their recent schedule and results. UNLV is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) in road games after playing a game as favorite this season.

Based on the projections I also like a 3* amount on the first half line. There is no doubt in my mind that UNLV will want to put as much pressure on the Ni defense as possible. By looking run on every possible transition fatigue will become a factor and NI defenders will get out of position allowing for high percentage shots by UNLV. NI did very well in conference play and statistically has a very strong defense. The emphasis is on the word statistically as they will have enormous difficulty defending the quickness and athleticism of the Rebels. Here is a first half system that under scores these points and more. It has gone 50-20 ATS for 71.4% winners since 1997. Play against neutral court teams versus the 1st half line after allowing 65 points or less 5 straight games facing an opponent after a loss by 10 points or more. Take UNLV.

Northeastern vs. Connecticut
Free Pick: UConn -7.5 (2010 NIT Tournament – Tom Stryker)
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Off four consecutive straight up losses including an embarrassing first round blemish to St. John’s in the Opening Round of the Big East Tournament, Connecticut will bounce back nicely tonight at home in the NIT matched up against Northeastern.

As stated, the Huskies dropped a 73-51 decision to the Red Storm in their last game and that crushing defeat places them in an automatic “play on” situation. Since the 1990-91 season, NIT 1st Round hosts that enter off a blowout loss of 20 points or more are a respectable 21-5 SU and 17-9 ATS including a solid 16-2 SU and 14-4 ATS in this role carrying a won/loss percentage less than .640. With those two parameters applied and our host favored by -4′ or more, this system tightens up to a rewarding 8-1 SU and ATS mark! UConn applies to all three parameters of this angle.

To help our cause, Big East home teams have dominated the 1st Round of the NIT Tournament posting a solid 20-3 SU and 15-7-1 ATS mark provided they check in off a straight up loss. If our BEAST team spots a won/loss percentage less than .590, this conference situations improves to a superb 11-0 SU and 9-1-1 ATS! On the flip side, since the 2005 season, Northeastern has struggled against teams from the Big East notching a woeful 1-9 SU and 2-8 ATS record.

The Northeastern Huskies participated in the CBI Tournament last year and found a way to pull off an upset win at Wyoming in their first game. Considering these Huskies are just 9-20 ATS priced as a road dog of +5′ or more when matched up against an opponent that holds a won/loss percentage greater than .200, an encore performance against one of the Big East’s better teams isn’t likely to happen. Take Connecticut. Thank you and best of luck, Tom Stryker.

Texas Tech vs. Seton Hall
Free Pick: Texas Tech +9 (2010 NIT Tournament – Matt Fargo)
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In a normal situation, Seton Hall would be worth a look here but this situation is far from normal. The Pirates do not have much interest in playing in the NIT as they were holding out hope to make the NCAA Tournament with their 9-9 regular season conference record and 1-1 record in the Big East Tournament but it was pretty much a guarantee that they had no chance in an at-large bid. Seton Hall was respectable in the conference but it was far from dominant as it defeated only two teams by double-digits and those were against Providence and Rutgers, both of which finished the season under .500. As a favorite of more than five points, the Pirates are 1-6 ATS on the season. Texas Tech started the season very well as it got off to a 9-0 start and was ranked at one point. A 15-point loss at New Mexico turned the season around as the Red Raiders won only seven more games the rest of the way but the fact that it is playing in the NIT is a pretty big reward for a team that went 4-12 in the Big XII during the regular season. I do not think the Red Raiders should be playing in the postseason to be honest but here they are and that makes a bigger difference as motivation now comes into play. An extended season is a huge bonus for a team that even it thought would not happen. The Pirates also have some added turmoil they don’t need as forward Robert Mitchell was dismissed from the team for remarks he made against head coach Bobby Gonzalez. He told a reporter that “it’s hard to stay consistent as a player, when the coach isn’t consistent.” While this may be an isolated opinion, there is the possibility that it is felt by others and Mitchell was the only one who spoke out. This is something you don’t want to hear at any point in the season and even more so during a one-and-done scenario. 3* Texas Tech Red Raiders

Saint Mary’s vs. Richmond
Free Pick: Saint Mary’s -1.5 (2010 NCAA Tournament – Doc’s Sports)
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Free Play from Doc’s Sports. #712 Take Saint Mary’s over Richmond (Thursday 3 pm CBS) A battle between two mid-majors will take place on Thursday in Providence, Rhode Island. The Gaels put any doubt that they would be in this tournament with an impressive performance in the West Coast Conference Tournament Final beating Gonzaga, 81-62. Richmond also reached the finals of the A-10 Tournament but they played two emotional games over the weekend and I do not believe that they will have much left in the tank for the NCAA Tournament. The Gaels have great balance on offense with five players averaging double figures in scoring. They put up close to eighty points per game and that is 10 points per game more then what Richmond is averaging. Richmond did not shoot it well from long range against Temple and Xavier over the weekend going 8 for 26 on Saturday (31%) and 5 for 19 on Sunday (26%). If Saint Mary’s can extend their defense and challenge shots, I expect them to march into the second round. Doc’s Sports has nailed six straight weekend top play winners in college basketball and this Thursday they will release our NCAA Tournament Game of the Year. This is a must have for any big game hunter so sign-up now since Doc has been handicapping college basketball since 1971.

Denver Nuggets vs. Memphis Grizzlies
Free Pick: Under 214 (March 13th 2010 – Jeff Alexander)
Denver isn’t nearly the same offensive juggernaut on the road that it is at home. In fact, the Nuggets are averaging just 102.6 ppg on the road, 5 points below their season average. And Memphis is only scoring 100.7 ppg at home. With this in mind, I’d say we’re getting some pretty good value with the Under with this line. The Under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in Memphis and 7-2 in the last 9 meetings overall. The Under is also 4-0 in the Nuggets’ last 4 road games and 20-6 in the Grizzlies’ last 26 games as a home underdog of 4.5 or fewer points. We’ll take the Under.

Richmond vs. Xavier
Free Pick: Xavier -4 (March 13th 2010 – Big Al McMordie)
At 3:25 pm, our complimentary selection is on the Xavier Musketeers minus the points over Richmond. No other conference tournament in the country has gone as much to the Favorites, as the Atlantic 10 Tournament. This year, the “chalk” is a modest 4-3, but dating back 20 seasons, the Atlantic 10 Tourney has seen favorites go 99-37 ATS when laying less than 13 points if their opponent is not off a win by more than 13 points. This afternoon, Xavier is favored over Richmond, who won its last game by just five points, so let’s lay the small number with the Musketeers on Saturday. Good luck, as always…Big Al McMordie.

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Dayton vs. Xavier
Free Pick: Xavier -2.5 (March 12th 2010 – Rob Vinciletti)
On Friday the Free play is on Xavier. Game 838 at 6:30 eastern. The Musketeers have some solid angles poiting to them in this game. They are 9-1 with revenge for a road loss, including 3-0 since 1997 for a loss of 20 or more. In the last 10 games vs winning teams they have won 8 times. They are 21-2 as a favorite this year and 12-3 with rest of 5 or 6 days. The past few seasons they have delivered as a short neutral court favorite, going 4-0 straight up and against the spread at -3 or less. Dayton is just 1-5 vs high scoring teams who average more than 76 points per game and have lost 6 of 7 times as an underdog this year. Xavier, a solid take tonight. On the Friday card I have a rare 6 unit 31-4 NBA Dominator system + a 98% cutting edge conference tournament TV Blowout system, that leads a solid card. The Big 12 game cashed with Kansas St and the XX-Large play cashed with Northwestern on Thursday. More damage on Friday. For the free play on Friday take Xavier. RV

UCLA vs. California
Free Pick: California -8 (March 12th 2010 – Tom Freese)
UCLA is 15-17 this year. Guard Michael Roll scores 13.6 points a game. Guard Malcom Lee is 12.3 points a a game. Forward Nikola Dragovic scores 12 points a game. Center Drew Gordon scores 11.2 points a game. Forward Reeves Nelson scores 11 points a game. The Bruins score 66.4 points a game. UCLA is 2-10 ATS off an ATS win and they are 2-6 their last 8 neutral site games. California is 21-9 this year. Guard Jerome Randall scores 18.7 points a game while shooting 40.7% from behind the arc. Guard Patrick Christopher scores 16 points a game. Forward Jamal Boykin scores 11.7 points a game. The Golden Bears score 77.4 points a game and they shoot 74.8% from the foul line. California is 5-0 ATS their last 5 games overall and they are 4-0 ATS off a straight up win. PLAY ON CALIFORNIA - BKDX3TTKE8PG

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Illinois vs. Wisconsin
Free Pick: Illinois +8.5 (March 11th 2010 – Doc’s Sports)
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Free Play from Doc’s Sports. #843 Take Illinois over Wisconsin (Friday 2:30 pm ESPN) The Illini are squarely on the bubble and cannot afford to look bad for a second straight game against the Badgers. Wisconsin won by 15 points in Champaign on Sunday and that loss put Illinois on the last four in column with regards to the bracket. That being said, Illinois has better talent then does Wisconsin and if they make shots from the arc they are a tough team to beat. Let’s not forget that this Illini team went into Madison and handed the Badgers their only loss this season at the Kohl Center. Illinois is 20-9 ATS in their last 29 games on Friday. Wisconsin is just 2-5 ATS in their last 7 neutral site games. Desperation leads to excellence for the Illini and it would not surprise me if they win this game straight-up. Getting this many points is just an added bonus. Don’t miss Doc’s Sports Conference Tournament Game of the Year (6-unit pick). This play will go on Saturday and we will be looking for our sixth straight weekend top play winner.

North Carolina vs. Georgia Tech
Free Pick: North Carolina +4 (March 11th 2010 – John Ryan)
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3* graded play on North Carolina as they take on Georgia Tech set to start at 7:00 EST and is an ACC opening round matchup. This is the Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that UNC will lose this game by fewer than 3 points and we wold not be surprised at all to see an upset. Pride is always a very big part of any defending Champion and we believe it will be seen in full force in this game. GT defense has been horrible the past two games yielding 55% shooting to Clemson and 51% shooting to V-tech. UNC has favorable offensive matchups to exploit and we feel strongly that UNC will have a very big game. Based on the model projections rebounding will be nearly equal, but GT is just 1-5 ATS this season and 8-18 ATS the past 3 seasons when final game rebounding stats are +-3. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 30-9 ATS for 77% winners since 1997. Play on neutral court teams as a dog off an embarrassing road loss scoring less than 60 points and is a marginal team winning team between 51% to 60% and playing a winning team. Heart of the Champion comes through today. Take UNC.