Wright State vs. Butler
Free Pick: Butler -7 (March 9th 2010 – Black Widow)
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This is a home game for Butler in the Horizon League Championship, played in Indianapolis, Indiana. Butler lost in the title game last season to Cleveland State, and went on to lose in the first round of the NCAA Tournament to LSU. With all 5 starters back from that team, this Bulldogs’ squad will be extra motivated to make sure they continue their momentum by winning the championship this time around. Butler is riding the nation’s longest winning streak at 19 games. “It’s a little bit of unfinished business – you feel like that when you get all that way and then you don’t finish the deal,” Bulldogs forward Matt Howard said. “It’s the same thing this year. We’re focused, we want to win. We don’t feel comfortable with where we are.” Wright State is 3-11 ATS in all road games this season, and 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in road games off a win against a conference rival this season. In a home game for the Bulldogs, and with this team looking to make amends for last year’s loss in the title game, we’ll take Butler and lay the points.
Wisconsin vs. Illinois
Free Pick: Wisconsin -3.5 (March 7th 2010 – John Ryan)
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3* graded play on Wisconsin as they travel to face Illinois set to start at 2:00 EST and this game will be seen on ESPN. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that Wisconsin will win this game by more than 3 points. Wisconsin is playing very well and are coming of BB blowout wins defeating Indiana by 32 points and Iowa by 27 points. Wisconsin is 11-0 ATS (+11.0 Units) after 2 straight blowout wins by 20 points or more since 1997. Illinois has shot under 40% in 3 of their past 5 games and the stats clearly show that they are a very tired team. Wisconsin is projected to shoot between 40 and 46% and Illinois is just 3-6 ATS this season and 9-27 ATS the past 3 seasons allowing opponents to shoot within this range. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 36-11 ATS for 77% winners since 1997. Play against home teams in March where the line is +3 to -3 that are good passing teams averaging >=16 assists/game on the season. Take Wisconsin.
Texas vs. Baylor
Free Pick: Texas +3 (March 6th 2010 – Jimmy Boyd)
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It’s been a fall from grace for the Horns, going from the No. 1 ranked team in the country to unranked. But now all the pressure is gone, and I expect the immensely talented Longhorns to pay Baylor back for an earlier season loss here. Texas has won 11 straight over the Bears on the road and it will not be lacking any motivation today. Plus, plays against home teams where the line is +3 to -3, very good team outscoring their opponents by 8 or more points per game, in March games, are 24-6 ATS since 1997. On top of that, Baylor is only 1-11 ATS in home games versus excellent teams who shoot 45% or better from the field and allow 42% or worse shooting over the last 3 seasons. You also have to like the fact that Baylor is 0-7 ATS as a home favorite of 3 points or less or pick over the last 3 seasons, losing in these games by an average score of 71 to 77. Take Texas.
Iowa State vs. Kansas State
Free Pick: Kansas State -16 (March 6th 2010 – Tom Stryker)
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With a 2-11 SU and 5-8 ATS record in its last 13 games, Iowa State is obviously playing some of its worst basketball of the season. Things won’t get any easier for the Cyclones when they visit Bramlage Coliseum on Saturday night. Kansas State returns to Manhattan off its 82-65 beating at rival Kansas and the Wildcats will be looking to administer a little of their own pain here.
If you need a couple of technical reasons to lay the lumber with KSU on Saturday, please consider the following: K State is a spotless 8-0 SU and 5-2-1 ATS in its last eight meetings against ISU. Equally impressive, the Cats are a stellar 36-21-1 ATS at home since 2005 including 26-11 ATS in this role favored by -6 points or more.
With a victory tonight, KSU will grab sole possession of the No. 2 spot in the Big 12 standings. Wildcat seniors Luis Colon and Chris Merriewether have won more games than any class in school history. These two seasoned veterans will close out their stellar careers with one more “W”! Take Kansas State. Thank you and best of luck, Tom Stryker.
Free NCAA Pick: Samford +3 (Jack Jones)
It is extremely difficult to beat a team 3 times in the same season, and that’s what The Citadel is facing tonight as they take on Samford in the Southern Conference Tournament Friday. The Citadel won by 1 and 4 points, respectively, in their two meetings with Samford this season. Samford is chomping at the bit to get some payback tonight in the third meeting. This play falls into a system that is 58-21 (73%) over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet on any team (SAMFORD) – revenging 2 straight losses where team scored < 60 points against opponent off a cover where the team lost straight up as an underdog. Samford brings more energy and passion to the floor tonight. Take Samford.
Free NCAA Pick: Georgia State +6 (Rocky Atkinson)
Georgia State is 9-2 ATS since 1997 in March. Georgia State is 18-5 ATS last 3 years revenging a road loss vs an opponent. Georgia State is 6-0 ATS since 1997 in 1st round tournament games. Georgia State is 7-0 ATS since 1997 in conference tournament games. Hofstra is 1-7 ATS last 3 years when playing with 5 or 6 days rest. Georgia State is allowing only 63.6 points per game overall and 62.6 points per game on the road this year. Panthers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a ATS loss. Panthers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 neutral site games as an underdog. Panthers are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 neutral site games. Panthers are 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a SU loss. Pride are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 Friday games. Pride are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 neutral site games as a favorite. We’ll recommend a small play on Georgia State tonight! Thanks and good luck, Rocky
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St. Johns vs. Depaul
Free Pick: St. John’s (March 5th 2010 – Doc’s Sports)
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Free Play from Doc’s Sports. #835 Take St. Johns over DePaul (8:30 pm ESPN 360) Two bad teams are set to do battle on Friday night at Allstate Arena in Chicago, IL. The Blue Demons have an interim coach and currently sit at the bottom of the Big East with a 1-16 conference record. St. Johns is just 5-12 in the Big East, but they have shown some signs of life playing pretty well in their last four games against good competition. They beat South Florida, took Marquette to OT, and lost by just seven points to Pittsburgh. The Red Storm have dominated this series recently going 4-1 ATS in the last five match-ups. St. Johns has also went 7-0 ATS in their last seven road games against a team with a losing home record. That will be the case tonight, as DePaul is just 6-8 in Chicago this season. Play the visitor and get your bankroll going for the weekend. Don’t forget to sign-up for Doc’s SEC Game of the Year. This selection will go this Saturday and is a must have for any big game hunter.
Southern Illinois vs. Drake
Free Pick: Drake +3.5 (March 4th 2010 – Rob Vinciletti)
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On Thursday night the free play is on Drake. Game 546 at 7:00 eastern. This is the start of the Missouri Valley Conference Tournament. We find solid value with an opening round dog in Drake that has already beaten Souther Illinois twice this season. In tournament play certain dogs in this situation have proved most profitable through the years. Souther Illinois is a cut below their solid teams of years past. The Salukis are just 1-5 ats with revenge for a road loss and have failed to cover in 7 of the past 9 neutral court games. Drake has covered 13 of the last 20 as an underdog and 75% of the time in this tournament the past few years. Look for Drake to get the cash tonight as a small dog in opening round play. On the Tursday card I have a Rare 31-3 Cutting Edge NBA System going tonight. We had a solid night on Wednesday in the NBA cashing 2 blowout wins with the Celtics and Suns. This one should follow suit. In NCAAB Action The lead play is a 16-2 Triple angle dominator side. For the free play Take Drake. RV
Pacific vs. CS Fullerton
Free Pick: CS Fullerton +3 (March 4th 2010 – John Ryan)
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3* graded play on Cal-State Fullerton (CSF) as they take on Pacific in Big West action set to start at 11:05 EST. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that CSF will win this game. On January 21st, Pacific defeated CSF 80-73 and CSF covered by the hook. This revenge situation has served CSF bettors well in past games. CSF is 14-4 ATS (+9.6 Units) revenging a loss where opponent scored 75 or more points over the last 3 seasons. CSF is projected to score between 67 and 74 points based on the model. Note that in past games Pacific has not done well when allowing 67 to 74 points sporting marks of 0-2 ATS this season, 1-12 ATS the past 3 seasons, and 21-48 ATS since 1997.
Ryan is on a 75% ATS winning 10* Titan run spanning his last 20 releases. Join him for this 10* Titan that is reinforced by Ryan’s research featuring game dependent angles sporting a perfect 26-0 ATS mark. He won both 10* Wed. w/UNDER Temple and TCU, who covered easily.
Maryland vs. Duke
Free Pick: Duke -1.5 (March 3rd 2010 – Jack Jones)
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The Blue Devils have won 6 straight over Maryland, and they’ll add to this winning streak over the Terrapins Wednesday. Duke clinches the ACC with a win tonight, and we cannot see them letting this opportunity go by the way side. Duke already posted a 77-56 win over Maryland in their first meeting this season, and though that game was played at Cameron Indoor, the Terrapins simply don’t have the manpower inside to stop the Blue Devils. Duke grabbed 17 offensive rebounds in that win and 44 rebounds total. This team has scrappers in the middle, and they give guys like Scheyer, Smith and Singler extra opportunities to score at the offensive end with extra possessions. Duke is 7-0 ATS after a game committing 8 or less turnovers over the last 2 seasons. The Blue Devils have won 8 straight games, and they are clearly playing their best basketball of the season to finish, winning six of those eight contests by double-digits.
This play also falls under a system that is 24-5 (83%) over the last 5 years. It tells us to bet against home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (MARYLAND) – very good team – outscoring their opponents by 8+ points/game, in March games. Take Duke to win their seventh straight over Maryland.
Oklahoma State vs. Texas A&M
Free Pick: Texas A&M -6 (March 3rd 2010 – Dennis Macklin)
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Two 20-8 teams strap it up in tonight’s key Big 12 showdown. IMO, the Texas A&M Aggies are one of the true under-the-radar teams with a real chance to do some damage in the big dance. The Aggies are a veteran bunch that is long and athletic, play great defense, and supremely coached by an underrated Mark Turgeon. You’d be hard pressed to find a better spot than this for A&M, catching Oklahoma State off their upset of Kansas on what figures to be an emotional senior night at Reed Arena in College Station. The Cowboys are no great shakes on the road with four Big 12 highway losses by more points than they’ll get tonight. OSU also only 3-7 TY as a dog and just 1-4 as a road dog of 3-6 points. The Aggies on the hand are loaded with positive techs including 16-8 ATS overall, 9-4 ATS in conference, 8-4 ATS at home, 11-4 ATS avenging same year road loss …. well you get the idea. Last but not least, this is the true revenge spot of a Cowboy 75-69 win at Stillwater where OSU spanked A&M 30-19 on the boards. OSU in the guantlet tonight off Kansas win and might just be happy to get out of Dodge in one piece with their own senior day versus helpless Nebraska on deck. Take Texas A&M
Cal Irvine vs. Cal Santa Barbara
Free Pick: Cal Santa Barbara -8 (March 3rd 2010 – Rob Vinciletti)
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On Wednesday the free play is on Cal Santa Barbra. Game 772 at 10:00 eastern. UCSB is a solid 4-0 straight up and against the spread after scoring 60 or less this year, and 8-2 after allowing 60 or less. When they are a home favorite in this range they have won all 4 times with 3 covers. They have big revenge tonight from a close loss at UC. Irvine earlier in the year. UC Irvine is a terrible 0-5 straight up and against the spread vs winning teams this year, 3-7 ats a s a dog and 0-4 and 1-3 ats off a win this year. Look for Cal Santa Barb to get the win and cover here tonight. On the Wednesday Crd I ahve three Big play two in The NBA from Big Cutting edge Dominator system and a 5 unit Last Home game play of the Year system. Backed with one of my best last home game systems this one will cash. Jump on and make some dough on Wednesday night with 3 solid moves. For the free play take the Cal Santa Barbara. RV
Notre Dame vs. Connecticut
Free Pick: Notre Damme -1.5 (March 3rd 2010 – Matt Fargo)
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The Big East Conference has certainly lived up to its billing this season. The parity has been sensational once again with Syracuse being the only team that has pretty much dominated from start to finish. Five teams are separated by a game and a half in the middle of the pack and two of those teams square off tonight in South Bend. Just a short while ago, Connecticut was on the outside of the NCAA Tournament bubble but with three straight wins including victories against West Virginia and Villanova, the Huskies have snuck inside the group of 65. However a loss at home against Louisville in their last game has the questions coming up again about whether they should be in or not. As of right now, the projections still have Connecticut in but it is not by much. The home portion of the schedule is done and the Huskies will now have to win out on the road to keep their position and that is not going to be easy. They are 2-6 on the road this season and both of those wins came in their last two home games, including that game against Villanova but consistency remains an issue.
While Connecticut has been up and down, Notre Dame has had the same type of season and it is also making a strong statement to make it into the NCAA Tournament. Three straight losses in the middle of February likely had the Irish destined for the NIT but back-to-back wins over Pittsburgh and Georgetown, the latter being a road thrashing on Saturday, has them knocking on the door. Notre Dame is 16-3 at home this season and this is the final home game of the year and for the careers of five seniors including Luke Harangody who is likely out for the remainder of the year. The fact that Notre Dame has held it together while he has been absent shows a lot about this team and it will not be going out without a fight. In this matchup, Notre Dame has advantages in several important statistical categories including offensive efficiency, overall efficiency, offensive shooting, free throw shooting and assist/turnover ratio. That final category is important all the time, but even more so during the tournament and let’s face it, this is an early tournament game. The Irish have an assist/turnover ratio of 1.70 which is easily the best in the country and in home games, that rises to 1.91 which is almost unheard of in the college game. Conversely, the Huskies have a ratio of 0.75 in road games and that disparity is enormous. This is also a revenge game for the Irish who lost in Storrs by 12 points and that one was due to free throw shooting as Connecticut went to the line 15 more times, making 13 more of its attempts.
Don’t be surprised to see a reversal of that here. Play on home teams with a winning percentage between .600 and .800 that have covered the spread in two or more straight games with a line that is between +3 to -3 and now playing a team with a winning record below .600. This situation is 31-9 ATS (77.5 percent) since 1997. 3* Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Colorado State vs. San Diego State
Free Pick: San Diego State -14 (March 3rd 2010 – Tom Freese)
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Colorado is 15-13 overall and they are 6-8 in League Play. Guard Dorian Green scores 12.4 points a game. Forward Andy Ogide scores 11.7 points and 6.5 rebounds a game. Forward Travis Franklin scores 10.6 points a game. No other players score more than 8.6 points a game. The Rams score just 66.4 points a game while shooting just 68% from the foul line. The Rams are 3-7 ATS their last 10 road games and they are 1-6 ATS their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning record. San Diego St is 20-8 overall and they are 9-5 in Conference Play. Forward Kawii Leonard scores 12.4 points and 9.5 rebounds a game. Forward Malcolm Thomas scores 10.9 points a game while shooting 40% from behind the arc. Forward Billy White scores 10.5 points a game. Guard D.J Gay scores 10.4 points a game. The Aztecs score 71.5 points a game and they shoot 47% from the floor. San Diego St is 11-4 ATS their last 15 games as home favorites and they are 6-2 ATS their last 8 games overall. PLAY ON SAN DIEGO ST -
Minnesota vs. Michigan
Free Pick: Minnesota Pk (March 2nd 2010 – Tom Freese)
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Michigan is 13-15 overall and they are 6-10 in League Play. Guard Manny Harris scores 18.1 points and 6.3 rebounds a game. Forward Deshawn Sims scores 16.9 points and 7.8 rebounds. No other player on the team scores more than more than 7.5 points a game. The Wolverines score 64 points a game and they shoot just 41% from the floor. Michigan is 2-5 ATS their 7 Big 10 games and they are 1-5 ATS on Tuesday. Minnesota is 17-11 overall and 8-8 in League Play. Guard Lawrence Westbrook scores 13 points a game while shooting 42% from behind the arc. Forward Blake Huffarber scores 11 points a game. Forward Damion Johnson scores 10.2 points a game. Guard Devoe Joseph scores 8.8 points a game and Ralph Sampson scores 8.7 points a game. The Golden Gophers score 73.5 points a game and they shoot 47% from the floor. Minnesota is 4-0 ATS their last 4 Big 10 games and they are 7-3 ATS off an ATS win. PLAY ON MINNESOTA
Louisville vs. Marquette
Free Pick: Marquette -1 (March 2nd 2010 – Jack Jones)
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Marquette is one of the hottest teams in the Big East and they’ve come through for us a lot over the last couple weeks. The Eagles are showing solid value again tonight and we’ll take advantage as Tuesday’s free pick. Marquette is 8-1 SU & 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games overall to improve to 19-9 this season and certainly would be in the NCAA Tournament if the season were to end today. The Eagles are 12-3 at home this season, and they face a Louisville team that actually has a losing road record this year. The Cardinals are 1-8 ATS off a win against a conference rival this season. Marquette is 12-4 ATS in conference games this season. The Eagles are one of the most underrated teams in the Big East, and they are going under the radar again tonight when they should be a much heavier home favorite.
