Handicappers Picks

The 2010 college football campaign is about to get underway, and here at BetUS Sportsbook, we have the best football expert line analysis on the internet! We’ll take our licks at the duel in Salt Lake City between the Pittsburgh Panthers and the Utah Utes for Thursday night!
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Pittsburgh Panthers vs. Utah Utes
Game Date/Time: Thursday, September 2nd, 8:30 ET
Game Location: Rice-Eccles Stadium, Salt Lake City, UT
TV/Radio Broadcast: Versus, Sirius

NCAA Football Odds: Pittsburgh Panthers (+3) -110 vs. Utah Utes (+3) -110: Over/Under 49.5

The Panthers have two critical things going for them in this game. The first is that they clearly have one of the, if not the best running backs in the game in Dion Lewis. He rushed for 1,799 yards last year as just a freshman, and there is no reason to believe that he will be slowed down in the opener either.

The second item of note for U-Pitt is the fact that it always seems to generate pressure on opposing quarterbacks with just the use of its front four. Blitzing isn’t really in the cards most of the time for Dave Wannstedt, but in the event that he does call for the heat, it is unlikely that most quarterbacks will find the time to make the throws to beat the ‘D’.

On the other side of the ball, it isn’t going to help the Utes any that their quarterback, Jordan Wynn is just a sophomore and has still yet to reach double digits in terms of games played at this level. Wynn did come on strong against the California Golden Bears in Utah’s bowl game last year, going 26-of-36 for 338 yards with three TDs, but he was sacked a handful of times and couldn’t get away from the pass rush when it came.

Wynn is going to need a lot of help from his defense in this game to contain Lewis and the Panthers. This is a unit which ranked in the Top 25 last year in total defense (313.8 yards per game), pass defense (176.2 yards per game), and scoring (20.2 points per game). The better news is that Pittsburgh might be a one dimensional team, as it is breaking in a new quarterback in Tino Sunseri, who replaces a veteran of the team, Bill Stull.

NCAA Football Insider Tip: The Utes are generally slow starters, at least in terms of the spread, as they are just 1-4 ATS in their L/5 games played in the month of September.

Though this is a tough game to call, the Panthers are our choice. The defensive front and the consistency of the rushing game with Lewis will be too much to handle. Our football expert line choice is on U-Pitt in this college football betting battle.

My NCAA Football Predictions: Pittsburgh Panthers (+3) -110

Source: BetUS Locker Room Featured on: Handicapperspicks.com

After a full season of college football action, this is the one we’ve all been waiting for. No. 1 vs. No. 2. SEC vs. Big XII. Texas vs. Alabama for the National Championship. When breaking down these two teams, everyone starts with the offensive weapons, but it’s the defenses which got them here.

First for Alabama, they’re simply the best: First in scoring defense (11 points per game), second in total defense (271 yards per game) and second in run defense (just 78 yards per game). They have an extremely fast and athletic front-seven led by All-American linebacker Rolando McClain, as well as All-American defensive tackle Terrence Cody. And their defensive backs are just as good, with All-American (sensing a trend here?) Javier Arenas at cornerback and safties Justin Woodall and Mark Barron.

As for Texas, they aren’t too shabby themselves on the defensive side of the football, as they allowed the fewest rushing yards of any team in the game (62 per contest) and third fewest total yards (251). They are led by their own All-American, Sergio Kindle at defensive end, with Earl Thomas also starring at safety.

Looking at these two offenses, rather than just studying the stats, lets look at what each needs to do to get their team a win.

For Alabama, quarterback Greg McElroy just needs to keep doing what he’s done these past few games. Although the numbers were good overall, they were even better the last five games, as he threw for eight touchdowns and just one interception since the Tide’s bye week at the end of October. Obviously Alabama will also need to pound the football between the tackles as well, and there was hardly anyone in college football better at it than Heisman Trophy winner Mark Ingram. Ingram rebounded from a disastrous game against Auburn to lead Alabama against Florida in the SEC Championship game. He finished with 113 yards receiving and 76 yards rushing, outscoring Florida himself with three touchdowns.

Finally for Texas on offense, Colt McCoy needs time to throw. He’s got great receivers (Malcolm Williams, Jordan Shipley), but against Nebraska was rushed and hurried so often that he didn’t even have time to think. We know Alabama won’t let Texas run the ball much, so the pressure is on McCoy’s shoulders. He cannot throw three interceptions like he did against Nebraska.

At the end of it all, I give the slight edge to Alabama, and here’s why: They simply have the most dominating front-seven in college football. Look at the Florida game, they all but took away Tim Tebow as a runner and made him beat them through the air. Because of those guys up front, it will allow their defensive backs more time in coverage, and I expect them to make a few more plays than the Longhorns.

Aaron’s Pick: Alabama -4
Courtesy of Betus.com

One of the most intriguing matchups of the entire bowl season will come from Miami, where the Iowa Hawkeyes take on the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets.

For Iowa Hawkeyes, everything starts with one of the top defenses in all of college football. A deep and talented front seven stars Adrian Clayborn at defensive tackle and Pat Angerer and Jeremiah Hunter at linebacker. The group was one of the country’s best all season, as they ranked 10 th in scoring defense and 11 th in total defense, while allowing just 164 yards passing a game.

Offensively, the Hawkeyes will never score a ton of points, but were efficient throughout the year. And truthfully, they should be even better in this bowl game, thanks to a healthy Ricky Stanzi. Stanzi, who was on his way to a potential All-Big 10 performance this year, got hurt in the Hawkeyes second to last game of the season, with Iowa ultimately losing the two games he missed, against Northwestern and Ohio State. He should be back though, and the Hawkeyes can use him, as he threw for 2100 yards and 15 touchdowns on the year. A very, very important note however is that he also threw 14 interceptions in the 10 ½ games he played in this year.

As for Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets offense, well they are simply one of the most efficient running teams in college football. They are led by running back Jonathan Dwyer and quarterback Josh Nesbitt, a backfield that combined for a staggering 2000 yards and 32 touchdowns on the year. Although the Yellow Jackets prefer not to throw the ball often, they do have a very capable wide receiver in Demaryius “Bebe,” Thomas. Thomas, a junior, had just 46 catches on the year, but finished second in the FBS with an average of 25 yards per catch.

On defense, the Yellow Jackets have struggled as of late, allowing 27 or more points in four of their last five games.

Despite those defensive struggles, I still expect the Yellow Jackets to win this game. But, considering that three of Georgia Tech’s last four games were decided by six points or less, I’m not sure that they can cover the bowl game betting odds in this one.

The Yellow Jackets are a team that seems to always play close, but always find ways to win games. Because of it, I like Iowa to cover the betting odds, while Georgia Tech should win the Orange Bowl straight up.

Aaron’s Pick: Iowa +4
Courtesy of BetUS.com

The tragic memory of deceased teammate, Jasper Howard, will be hanging over the Huskies as they hit the gridiron of Legion Field to battle the South Carolina Gamecocks. Sometimes that kind of motivation is enough to push a fringe team over the edge, but finding seams against the Gamecocks will be almost impossible. South Carolina prides itself on defense and has endured a season filled with tough, SEC-caliber opponents. Handling the Huskies should be an easy feat for them.

UConn wasn’t able to use the motivation of Howard’s death affectively, pilling up three-straight losses after the funeral of their corner-back. The bulk of the workload in the Huskies offense comes from the tailback tandem of Todman and Dixon, who totaled 2,119 yards on the ground with 27 touchdowns between them. Shutting those studs down will be the a key for the rush defense of the Gamecocks that allow 137.0 yards per game.

Despite the ups and downs of their emotionally draining season, the Huskies showed serious resolve in a comeback victory against the South Florida Bulls 29-27 which gave them a three-game winning streak. In the past five games overall they’re 3-2 SU/ATS and are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games overall.

The Gamecocks have been lost in the mad shuffle of the SEC. They managed to decimate Clemson 34-17 in their season finale, ending a three-game losing skid and giving them a 2-0 ATS record to finish the season. Quarterback Stephen Garcia tallied 2,733 yards and 17 touchdowns in his sophomore year and showed that, at times, he can seriously carry this team. Garcia ended the season with a favorable quarterback rating of 124.54.

The key to betting this bowl game properly is noting how efficiently the Gamecocks were able to contain C.J. Spiller of Clemson. They held one of college’s all-time great running-backs to just 18-yards on 9 carries and though the one-two punch of Todman-Dixon will be formidable, it certainly won’t test Spurrier’s ability to craft stingy defenses.

This line has dropped inexplicably by almost three-points and I say that you take advantage of it. Garcia may be just a sophomore, but he’ll be able to manage an effective gameplan. I’ll take an SEC team that had a winning record over UConn any day…especially with a great sports betting line.

Furious Free Pick: South Carolina -4.5 (UNDER)
Courtesy of Betus.com

Lions, Tigers and the Citrus Bowl…oh my! When the pollsters and voters handed the Capitol One Bowl to Penn State and LSU, it was a dream come true for many college football fans. These are two marquee teams and though no titles little prestige will be awarded to the winner, respect will be paid one way or another. Two teams predicated on defense with offenses that can keep the chains churning promises a great way to kick of your New Year’s Day afternoon. The question for Joe Paterno is whether he can outsmart Les Miles in the Capital One Bowl. Of course, that may not be too hard to do.

The Tigers entered infamy after they lost to Arkansas thanks to some blatant miscommunication and mismanagement on the part of Les Miles. It was probably one of the funniest blunders to watch in 2009, with Miles streaming up and down the sidelines trying to figure out what to do. However all will be forgiven by the LSU betting backers if he can figure out a way to continue his post season prominence. LSU has won each of its last four bowl games by an average of 28.5 points per game.

Penn State may be “linebacker university”, but LSU is a turnover machine. They have generated 37 turnovers in their last 25 games. The problem is that LSU’s quarterback, Jordan Jefferson, is known to put up interceptions in big moments. The fact that some dissension between him and Miles might be undermining the trust between the two will give Penn State all they need to victimize Les Miles’ offense.

The Lions give up just 183.2 passing yards per game, 93.9 rush yards and just 11.8 points. In fact, across the board on offense and defense, Penn State beats LSU in every important statistical category.

Quarterback Darryl Clark of Penn State has been making all sorts of noise as a leader and a playmaker this season. With 2,797 yards and 23 touchdowns, along with 10 picks, Clark has proven he can be a force in the pocket. Of course, consistency will have to be proven in 2010, but for now Clark realizes that his performances in big games will determine his value in the NFL. That kind of maturity, and a pocketed win over the esteemed program from LSU, will go a long way in securing Clark’s place amongst the best in the country.

The defense in Penn State will be the key against LSU, however. I expect points to come for the Lions, but the Tigers will have all sorts of trouble with a trio of strong linebackers backing the defense of Penn State. The fact that running back Charles Scott is iffy with an injury makes me even less convinced that LSU will keep its rousing bowl performance streak intact.

Penn State is on the verge of BCS glory in the next two years. It will happen eventually, but it starts by defeating the LSU Tigers and getting a marquee victory under the belts to cap a 10-2 SU season.

Furious Free Pick: Penn Sate -2.5 (UNDER)

As you look at this game from the perspective of the NCAA football bowl betting odds, you are looking for stars, you are going to find them on the Clemson team. Defensive ends Da’Quan Bowers and Ricky Sapp are standouts who will go high in the NFL Draft. DeAndre McDaniel is one of the best defensive backs in the country, and made eight interceptions on the season.

Wide receiver Jacoby Ford is a speedster who caught 53 passes for 735 yards this year. Yet the biggest star is running back CJ Spiller, the guy who should have won the Heisman Trophy. Spiller is simply the biggest game-breaker in the country, a guy who scored eleven touchdowns rushing, four more receiving and five more on kick returns, and ranked fourth in the country in all-purpose yards. His 233-yard rushing day against Georgia Tech in the ACC title game was a classic.

Here are some of the college football betting trends as they relate to this matchup:
•KY has won and covered five of its last seven games
•KY has played three of its last four games OVER the total
•CLEM has won six of its last eight games SU
•CLEM has played its last six games OVER the total

Yet Clemson lost that game, both straight-up and in the NCAA football betting odds, and that leads us to where our doubts about Clemson in this game are. We don’t question that this team has ability and playmakers, but after the surge the Tigers had toward the end of the season, during which time they won six straight games and averaged 40 points a game, it was a downer to lose to South Carolina in the big rivalry game. Another big loss was to Georgia Tech in the conference title game, which brought with it an invitation to the BCS. This is the kind of thing that might impact their performance in this game.

Clemson’s freshman quarterback, Kyle Parker, rebounded form a rough start to finish with 56% completions and 19 touchdowns. But he’ll be tested severely by the Kentucky secondary, which allowed opposing passer to complete just 48% of their throws, with 16 interceptions. Since the disastrous loss to Florida, where the Wildcats gave up 31 points in the first quarter, they have played better, and at one point, captured five of six, including straight-up wins at Georgia and Auburn. This is not a team that will roll over.

Kentucky has a pretty good two-fisted running attack, with go-to people in Derrick Locke (843 yards) and Randall “Not Tex” Cobb (537 yards), both of whom can also catch the ball out of the backfield. Cobb is the key guy in the Wildcats’ wildcat formation. Mike Hartline, who was the MVP of last year’s Liberty Bowl, has returned from injury, and he will provide a change of pace for an offense that also has the mobile Morgan Newton (55%, 5 TD’s) available at quarterback.

Kentucky is not a team that will overwhelm you with statistics, but they are very comfortable at this bowl, having appeared in Nashville three of the last four years, and coach Rich Brooks has basically said that they’ve got the drill down pat. Also, they are happy to be in the game, which maybe just as important when you’re talking about an underdog getting more than a TD.

We’re going with Kentucky, catching 7.5 points.
JAY’S PLAY: KENTUCKY +7.5 ***
(Graded on a scale of 1-4 stars)

Hawaii Bowl: SMU Mustangs (7-5, 6-5 ATS) vs. Nevada Wolfpack (8-4, 7-5 ATS): The Wolfpack and Mustangs get it on at the Hawaii Bowl on Christmas Eve night on the islands, and the storylines are juicy in this college football bowl betting affair! Both Nevada RBs Vai Taua (eligibility) and Luke Lippincott (injury) will be out of the game, which takes away a significant portion of its potent rushing attack. The unit averaged almost 60 more yards per game than anyone else in the country. This will also be a homecoming for SMU HC June Jones, who coached Hawaii to a BCS game just two years ago. Nevada has dropped from -15.5 to -12.5 in this game. The ‘total’ comes in at 72.5.

Little Caesars Bowl: Ohio Bobcats (9-4, 9-4 ATS) vs. Marshall Thundering Herd (6-6, 6-5 ATS): Former MAC rivals square off in the Little Caesars Bowl on Saturday afternoon to kick off a triple-header of games. The Bobcats came up just short of what would’ve been an incredibly surprising MAC Championship. They’ll look to take down the Herd as three-point favorites, who are set to welcome in their new HC Doc Holliday for next season. The Little Caesars Bowl college football point spread features a ‘total’ of 49.

Meineke Car Care Bowl: North Carolina Tar Heels (8-4, 6-5 ATS) vs. Pittsburgh Panthers (9-3, 7-4 ATS): In one of the best undercard bowl games of the season, the Panthers and Tar Heels will get it on in what will amount to be a home game for UNC. Both teams are coming off of bad losses to end their regular seasons that clearly hurt their bowl berths. Carolina lost to its rivals from NC State, while Pittsburgh just narrowly missed out on a chance to win the Big East by losing by a point at home to the Bearcats. The college football point spread in this one features Pitt by a field goal, while the ‘total’ has been set at 44.5.

Emerald Bowl: Boston College Eagles (8-4, 6-5 ATS) vs. Southern California Trojans (8-4, 3-9 ATS): Two of college football’s traditional powers get together in the Emerald Bowl on Saturday night to wrap up the three-pack of games. Two freshman quarterbacks, BC’s David Shinskie and USC’s Matt Barkley, will be getting their first taste of the bowl season. These two teams haven’t met on the gridiron since 1988. Not many are giving the Eagles a chance of taking down the mighty Trojans, as BC has been set at +7.5. The ‘total’ at BetUS.com is 44.

Music City Bowl: Kentucky Wildcats (7-5, 6-6 ATS) vs. Clemson Tigers (8-5, 8-5 ATS): For the second time in the L/3 years, the Wildcats and Tigers will get together in Nashville for the Music City Bowl. This year, Clemson has to be bitterly disappointed with its bowl assignment. The Tigers came oh so close to going to the Orange Bowl as the ACC Champions, and was passed up by Florida State, Miami, and Virginia Tech for better bowl slots. HC Rich Brooks just has to be happy to have his UK squad bowling once again, even though this is its third trip in the L/4 years to this game. The Tigers are seven-point favorites, with the over/under being set at 52.