Handicappers Picks

The Vikings finished the regular season losing two of their final three, but erased any doubt of a fluke season by absolutely dominating the Dallas Cowboys 34-3. The Minnesota offense was clicking like they were at the beginning of the season, with Brett Favre setting a career postseason high with four touchdown passes; three of which were caught by soon-to-be house hold name Sidney Rice. Considering the Dallas defense was coming off a stretch where their last three wins included two shutouts, the win is all the more impressive. Speaking of impressive wins by teams that were supposedly limping into the playoffs. The Saints crushed the Cardinals 45-14 last week and showed the rest of the NFL just why they started the season 13-0. Perhaps the most impressive facet of last week’s game was the play of Reggie Bush. Bush, playing in maybe the most important Saints game in franchise history, had his best game of his career. He had a spectacular 46-yard run, added an 83-yard punt return score, and proved why he was a number two overall pick in the first place. 

What The Vikings Have To Do To Win
The Vikings defense is considerably better than the Cardinals, so they should be able to give Drew Brees and the Saints a run for their money. It may be too much to ask to hold the Saints to just three points, but the Vikings can win if they pressure Brees. Minnesota was able to pressure Tony Romo hard last week, and was able to sack him six times last force three fumbles. As the game wore on, Romo was increasingly frustrated and made plays that he probably shouldn’t have made. If the Vikings can pressure Brees the same way and force him into sub-par decision making, the Vikings offense might be able to outscore the opposition. 

What The Saints Have To Do To Win
Bush was key to last week’s victory and he will be key again on Sunday. The Saints got lucky during the game against Arizona when the Cardinals two top defensive backs went down with injury in the first half. The Vikings secondary is better than Arizona’s, meaning receivers like Devery Henderson and Marques Colston won’t be as effective. That leaves Bush to be the main offensive weapon. If he can duplicate last week’s performance against the Vikings, New Orleans should cake walk their way to the Super Bowl. 

Outlook & Pick
This is going to be possibly the easiest over/under decision in NFL history. This game could devolve into one giant passing play after another until both Brees and Favre’s arms fall off. Defense will be a factor, but only regarding which team can stop the bleeding less. Minnesota is lucky that the game is played in a dome, as all four of their losses during the season came on outside grass. But this is the first NFC Championship at the Superdome, one of the loudest stadiums in the NFL. It’s going to be deafening on Sunday. The home-field advantage is going to be the edge that New Orleans needs to make the first Super Bowl in franchise history.

Back in 2005 the Jets hoofed the Chargers playoff hopes in the groin by toppling them 20-17 in the wild card round of the playoffs. For a team that usually finds itself in the post season, the Chargers haven’t found success that often and that is a trend that I see continuing when they face the Jets on Sunday. History will repeat itself this weekend.

Of course, you can make cases that Philip Rivers has matured and that the Jets don’t stand a chance of beating a team that ranks 4th in the NFL in scoring with 28.4 points per game. The problem is that aside from Rivers’ experience over the past year, that’s the same argument NFL football betting experts made in favor of the Chargers every year. The fact is that defense still wins championships. Five of the past seven Super Bowl Champions have had a top-3 defense and while the Chargers are an impressive scoring machine, they still rank 11th in points allowed.

The Jets possess the league’s best overall scoring defense, allowing just 14.8 points per game. Darrell Revis has been a defensive coordinator’s dream, as he’s successfully shut down half of the vertical plane. The rushing defense for the Jets, even without Kris Jenkins, ranks 7th on the road with just 100.3 yards allowed. I know it’s hard to imagine the Jets soaring to the Super Bowl in the 2009 season, but they match up very well against the Chargers.

If you’re sold on San Diego’s rushing game, then maybe we’re watching different teams because all I see is an aging LaDanian Tomlinson and a team that gains just 78.5 yards on the ground when they’re playing at home. Yet it’s not New York’s defense that has me siding with them as the sports betting upset pick of the weekend.

I’ve been crucifying Mark “Dirty” Sanchez for his inability to play in cold weather. The fact that Sanchez is uncomfortable playing in the cold has been one of the underlying jokes in the NFL because the Jets are a cold weather team. But guess where the game is this weekend? Yep – California. Sanchez’s home state and the state where he attended USC as the leading man of the Trojans.

Sanchez literally cooled off mid-season as the weather turned, but somehow in Cincinnati last weekend he found the elbow room to go nearly perfect as a passer. He threw 12-of-15 for 182 yards and a touchdowns, and Braylon had another drop in the end zone which would’ve raised Sanchez’s 139.4 rating in that game dramatically.

I also think that the combo of Shonn Greene and Thomas Jones is far more formidable than that of Sproles-Tomlinson because both backs are huge trucks posing as tailbacks. Their north-south running styles will wear out a 3-4 defense that relies on speed and agility and that will simply open up time for Mark Sanchez to rip passes over exhausted linebacker heads to Dustin Keller and his other receivers.

It may seem like I’m insanely infatuated with The Dirty but I’m not. There are other facets of the Jets that I think out perform the Chargers. Alan Faneca will destroy any defensive linemen trying to get to his quarterback. Tony Richardson will be hammering clear paths at fullback. Bart Scott is an animal at linebacker and will see to it that the speed of Sproles is nullified, and that Antonio Gates won’t get out of hand.

The Jets aren’t just about Sanchez, and that’s what people seem to be forgetting. At 6-1 SU/ATS in their last 7 games and 5-1 SU/ATS on the road, I love the Jets this weekend especially with all of those delicious points. No game, to me, has a better chance of hitting a lowered TOTAL than this one. It will be a stiff battle between Rivers and Revis and Thomas Jones against Merriman, but the Jets come out on top in a grueling battle that sends a rookie quarterback to the AFC Championship yet again.

The future is already present in New York. For the Chargers, the 2009 playoffs will have the same ending that they always do: major disappointment for them and their heated betting investors.

Furious Free Pick: NYJ +7 (OVER)
Courtesy of Betus.com

Green Bay Packers vs. Arizona Cardinals
Free Pick: Green Bay +1 (January 10th 2009 – Joseph D’Amico)

With the Playoff’s in hand, Arizona didn’t put forth that much of an effort LW against Green Bay. However, they did suffer some huge injuries. Here is a list; WR Morey ? Concussion, TE Patrick ? Concussion, FB Rolle ? Thight, FB Kreider ? Neck, CB Rodgers-Cromartie ? Knee, WR Boldin ? Ankle, and DE Campbell ? Thumb. Most of these players will play but won’t be 100%. The big question in this matchup is the difference in the post-season experience between Kurt Warner and the Card’s amd Aron Rodgers and the Pack. Green Bay won and covered 3 straight over Arizona. The Packer’s also ended the season with 6 straight covers. Arizona looked mediocre at times during the season. They also have a big weakness in their pass defense. QB Aron Rodgers will throw at will and exploit the wekaness. RB Ryan Grant will keep the Card’s “D” honest. A huge contrast between these two teams is turnovers. Green Bay leads the league with a +24 turnover margin. This time of year, it comes down to mistakes.The Packer’s are 5-0-1 ATS their L6 vs. the NFC, 20-7-1 ATS their L28 games played on the road, and 7-3 ATS their L10 games played vs. teams with a winning record. The Cardinal’s are 1-4 ATS their L5 games played as a favorite. Green Bay covers.

Philadelphia Eagles vs. Dallas Cowboys
Free Pick: Dallas Cowboys -3 (January 3rd 2010 – Bill Young)

The Cowboys have ended their December curse, winning back-to-back road games over the Saints and Redskins to earn themselves a spot in the playoffs. Now they have even more at stake Sunday, which is winning the NFC East title by beating the Philadelphia Eagles. Not only can they win the NFC East, but with a little help they could earn the #2 seed and a first-round bye. Dallas remembers getting hammered 44-6 by the Eagles in their regular season finale last year in Philly, which knocked them out of the playoffs. The Cowboys would love nothing more than to return the favor this time around, and they are treating this as a playoff game. Eagles center Jamaal Jackson’s streak of 71 consecutive starts will come to an end due to a torn ACL suffered in last Sunday’s 30-27 win over Denver. That leaves former right guard Nick Cole snapping the ball to McNabb, and his poor timing in that process led to one bad exchange and a false start penalty in their 30-27 win over the Broncos last week. Without Jackson, Jay Ratliff will require a double-team inside while DeMarcus Ware and Anthony Spencer wreak havoc on the outside. Donovan McNabb was pressured the entire game in their 16-20 loss to Dallas earlier this season, going 16-of-30 passing for 208 yards with 2 interceptions. He’ll face even more pressure this time around with a banged-up line, which will be the difference in the game. Tony Romo had a 67.9 passer rating last December but he’s been playing a lot better down the stretch this season, posting a 106.7 rating in the last five games. During that span, he’s completed 67.2 percent of his throws for 1,548 yards with nine touchdowns and one interception. Romoe has proven he can handle the pressure of the big game, and he’ll have time to pick apart the Eagles’ defense Sunday while McNabb will not have the same luxury. Take Dallas and lay the points.

Indianapolis Colts vs. New York Jets
Free Pick: New York Jets +5.5 (December 27th 2009 – Matt Fargo)

The Colts snuck by yet again this past week, this time a four-point win over the Jaguars to move to 14-0 on the season. The starters played the entire game but once again there is the debate about whether or not those starters will play a full game again this week. I am playing this game as it the Colts starters will be in the entire game, or at least the majority of it, and if they come out early, that is only an added benefit to us. Colts Head Coach Jim Caldwell said Monday the team has not yet decided how long starters will play and he said he plans to play all players who are healthy, but he didn’t elaborate on just how long those healthy starters would play against the Jets and that alone tells us that they will likely be coming out before this game is over. We shall see. The Jets lost a brutal game at home against the Falcons on Sunday which severely hurt their playoff chances. Now they will have to defeat the lone remaining undefeated team in the league and then win at home against the Bengals next week who may still very well be playing for something also.

New York is tied with five other teams at 7-7 and winning out for any of them could mean nothing as they all trail both Baltimore and Denver by a game for those Wild Card playoff spots. Any losses by any of those teams means their playoff shots are done so the Jets obviously need to win this game. They have actually fared better on the road this season, going 4-3 and while this is the hardest test of all, it is one that can be passed. Indianapolis has been winning but it has been anything but impressive in my eyes. Over the last seven games, the Colts have actually been outgained in five of those and the other two saw yardage advantages by only 21 and 24 total yards. In total over this stretch, Indianapolis is -145 in yardage which is a big surprise for a team that is 7-0 over that span. Making matters worse is that they have been outrushed in eight straight games and that will play right into the gameplan of the Jets who are one of the best rushing teams in the NFL and they have a +271 rushing yardage differential over the last three games.

The overall Jets defense has been great recently and what better time to be playing good than against one of the best offenses in the NFL. New York has allowed only 8.0 ppg over the last four games and it has outgained all four opponents. If not for a late touchdown by the Falcons, the Jets would be on a 4-0 run heading into this game. The Jets also fall into a solid contrarian situation. Play against teams with a winning percentage greater than .750 after three consecutive covers as a favorite in the second half of the season. This situation is 23-7 ATS (76.7 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 3* New York Jets

Oakland Raiders vs. Cleveland Browns
Free Pick: Oakland +3 (December 27th 2009 – Wunderdog Sports)

The Raiders undoubtedly have QB issues, but last week they pounded the Broncos for 241 yards on the ground. Charlie Frye gets the start here and against Cleveland, he’ll be good enough. After watching the Chiefs go for 5.6 yards a pop vs. the Browns, I expect Oakland to find some success in this game. The Raiders were struggling against the run, but the last two weeks have held opponents to less than 3.8 yards per carry in each contest. Brady Quinn is done for the year, meaning Derek Anderson gets the QB assignment which hasn’t been good for the Browns. He has already had two chances to secure the starting role, with the lowly Quinn his competition. He couldn’t grab the starting spot either time. The Raiders and Browns are both bad teams, but the Raiders have shown a much higher ceiling with wins over Denver, Pittsburgh and Philadelphia. Cleveland has had no success as a favorite and really don’t belong in that role as the last four times they have been given the oddsmakers edge they are 0-4 ATS. The fact is that in those four games, the Browns lost them all straight up, which certainly is more likely than not to repeat itself here. The Raiders have played their best ball on the road this year, posting three of their five wins, while the Browns are just 1-5 at home. I like the Raiders in this one.

New York Giants vs. Washington Redskins
Free Pick: New York Giants -140 (December 21st 2009 – John Ryan)

The Giants and the Cowboys have all but given the division championship to the Eagles. The Giants have an outside shot, especially given Dallas’ December woes. This is a 3* graded play on the Giants. A Simulator shows an 73% probability that the Giants will the Giants will win this game by 4 or more points. Supporting this graded play is a solid and proven money making system that has gone 30-9 ATS since 2004. Play against home dogs or pick that are an average offensive team scoring 18 to 23 PPG facing a good offensive team scoring 23-27 PPG. 45% of these games covered the number by 7 or more points. Giants are an impressive 16-3 ATS (+12.7 Units) versus excellent punt coverage teams allowing <= 7.5 yards per return over the last 3 seasons; 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) versus excellent passing teams with a completion percentage of 64% or better in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons. They are also a sound 20-6 ATS (+13.4 Units) in road games after allowing 30 points or more last game since 1992. Meanwhile the Redskins are just 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) after allowing 99 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games over the last 3 seasons.

OK, sounds like an old story for any team let alone an NFC East team, but the Giants MUST get the running game going in a dominating fashion. Washington is very vulnerable to a pounding running game and the matchups favor the Giants to have big success on the ground. Brandon Jacobs was having great success against the Eagles until that game turned into a shoot out. He has a 90% probability of getting 100 yards against the Redskins. Obviously, if he is pounding the run game between the tackles it will most assuredly open up play action pass plays. It will also allow for slant routes and especially the WR or flanker screen. Based on the matchups, I see the Giants winning BIG.

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