RSSCategory: NFL Football Picks

Miami Dolphins vs. Pittsburgh Steelers NFL Playoffs Point Spread Pick from Jimmy Boyd: January 8th 2017

| January 6, 2017

Miami Dolphins vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
NFL Playoffs Point Spread Pick: Dolphins +10 points (January 8th 2017)

I like the value here is with Miami catching double-digits. I believe we are seeing an inflated line with Pittsburgh being such a public team. It’s not very often you see a team beat an opponent by 15 and then catch double-digits in the rematch. I know the Steelers are better at home than on the road, but 10-points is a lot in the postseason.

I think the big spread will have Miami playing with a chip on their shoulder in this one. The Dolphins come in having won 9 of 11, yet no one is taking them seriously. It won’t be easy, but I actually think Miami can pull off the upset here.

The difference this time around is the Dolphins won’t have Ryan Tannehill. The thing is, Matt Moore is a more than capable backup. He’s completed 63.2% of his attempts with a 8.29 average per completion and 8-3 TD to INT ratio.

I know Pittsburgh’s defense has been playing better of late, but Miami had their way with them. Tannehill went 24 of 32 for 252 yards and Jay Ajayi rushed for 204 yards on 25 attempts. If the Dolphins can have similar success on the ground, it’s hard to not like their chances of keeping it close.

It’s also worth noting that Miami head coach Adam Gase has a strong history against the Steelers. Including the game this year, he’s faced them 3 times as a coach or assistant. In those 3 games his team has averaged 30 ppg. One of those was when he was the QB coach at Denver with Tim Tebow under center. That game the Broncos put up 447 yards in a Wild Card win over the Steelers.

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The other big key for me is the Dolphins showed they can at least contain Le’Veon Bell. In that first meeting he had just 53 yards rushing and 55 receiving. Most importantly, they kept him out of the endzone. Miami also held Antonio Brown to just 4 catches for 39 yards and picked off Big Ben twice.
Lastly, Tomlin doesn’t have a great track record in these revenge spots. In fact, Pittsburgh is 2-10 ATS revenging a loss as a road favorite under Tomlin. It’s also worth noting the Dolphins are 33-16 ATS in their last 49 road games vs a team with a winning home record. Steelers are also just 1-3-1 ATS last 5 at home and 0-3-2 ATS last 5 playoff games. Take Miami!

Chicago Bears vs. Minnesota Vikings Week 17 NFL Over-Under Pick from Tony George: January 1st 2016

| December 31, 2016

Chicago Bears vs. Minnesota Vikings
Week 17 NFL Over-Under Pick: Over 42.5 points (January 1st 2016)

A tale of two teams with high expectations this season who both ended up stinking it up, especially the Bears.  Minny started out hot and faded, and the Bears had injury issues all year at QB, and also the secondary for the most part was hit and miss all year.  Through 5 games Minny was one of the best teams in the NFL and they fell apart.

I have been impressed with how hard Chicago has played despite having nothing to play for, and Minnesota has simply imploded and their vaunted defense has been shredded recently, including last week, and Indy lit them up for 36 the week before.  Chicago was a funnel to the end zone for the Redskins last week and while the Vikings have struggled on offense, they should find some numbers on the scoreboard at home this weekend and the Bears and QB Barkley should also be able to trade punches on the scoreboard well.

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I expect some scoring here, the total is lower than I thought it would be,  as I had 47 on power ratings for this game.  Might surprise some, but I expect some offense in this game. FREE Play on the OVER 42.5

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Jimmy Boyd betting the Buffalo Bills -4.5 points over the Miami Dolphins on December 24th 2016

| December 23, 2016

Miami Dolphins vs. Buffalo Bills
Week 16 NFL Point Spread Pick: Bills -4.5 points (December 24th 2016)

I think the Bills are one of the more underrated teams in the league right now. Buffalo’s only loss against a team that’s currently not in the playoffs, was a Week 2 defeat to the Jets. Four have come against division leaders in New England, Seattle, Oakland and Pittsburgh. The other a 25-28 loss at Miami.

At the same time, I think Miami is overvalued right now. The Dolphins are 8-1 in their last 9 and fresh off a 21-point win at New York. The blowout win over the Jets has covered up the loss of Tannehill. The thing you have to keep in mind, is New York threw the towel in on this season weeks ago. No disrespect to Moore, but this is not the same team without Tannehill under center.

The big key here is that Buffalo still believes they are in the playoff mix. Even though their chances are slim, NFL teams aren’t going to give up until they are officially out. On top of that, they are to be out for revenge here from that earlier loss to the Dolphins. Keep in mind the the Bills have won 4 straight at home over Miami. Each of the last 3 coming by at least 16 points.

I expect a huge effort here from the Buffalo defense, who was embarrassed in that first meeting. The Bills allowed Jay Ajayi to rush for 214 yards and gave up 454 total yards to the Dolphins. Plus, Miami’s ground game has fallen off quite a bit since the last time they played. The Dolphins have failed to rush for more than 83 yards in each of their last 3 and failed to eclipse 100 in 5 straight.

I believe it will be Buffalo’s ground game that ends up being the story here. The Bills own the league’s top ranked rushing attack at 163.6 ypg. They will be facing a Miami defense that ranks 30th against the run, giving up 132.5 ypg.

Dolphins are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 division road games, losing on average by 11.8 ppg. Miami is also just 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games played in the month of December. Take Buffalo!

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