RSSCategory: NFL Football Picks

Arizona Cardinals vs. Houston Texans Week 11 NFL Point Spread Pick from Brandon Lee: November 19th 2017

| November 19, 2017

Arizona Cardinals vs. Houston Texans
NFL Point Spread Pick: Cardinals +1.5 points (November 19th 2017)
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I think it’s worth the risk here to take the Cardinals on the road in a pick’em game against the Texans. I’m actually shocked that the public isn’t all over Arizona given how bad Houston has looked with Tom Savage as their starting quarterback. I know the Rams are playing great right now, but to only score 7 points and put up 283 yards of offense is hard to ignore. Keep in mind it wasn’t much better the week before at home against a bad Colts team, where they scored just 14 points and had 288 total yards. The defense was responsible for 7 of those points and the offense didn’t score a single point until late in the 4th quarter.

Let’s also not forget that Savage started their opener against Jacksonville at home and they lost that game 7-29. Note the only touchdown in that game came after Watson replaced Savage. So in basically 10 quarters of work this season, Savage has guided the Texans to 14 points. An even more telling stat is that he’s completed just 47.3% of his passes, which is downright awful by NFL standards (there’s 29 quarterbacks who are completing 60% or better).

I believe the fact that this game is being played at home and the Cardinals could be down to 3rd string QB Blaine Gabbert, is the only thing that is keeping this line where it is. Whether it’s Gabbert or backup Drew Stanton, both are substantially better than Savage.

I also like this matchup for Arizona. I’ve already noted how bad Savage is and his horrific accuracy throwing the ball. For Houston’s offense to have any hope of success they need to be able to run the ball. That’s not going to be an easy task here, as the Cardinals own the league’s 8th ranked run defense, giving up just 97.7 ypg. Bruce Arians is also a smart head coach and you can bet that he’s going to load the box here and force Savage to beat them. Adding to the coaching edge is the fact that Arizona will have had 3 extra days to prepare for this game after playing on Thursday.

One last thing to note about the Cardinals is that while they are just 4-5 on the season, all 5 of their losses have come against teams who currently own a winning record (Lions, Cowboys, Eagles, Seahawks, Rams). Taking care of business against bad teams on the road has been one thing this team has done well, as Arizona is 14-4 ATS in their last 18 road games against a team with a losing home record. On the flip side of this, the Texans are just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games against a team with a losing road record. Give me the Cardinals +1.5!

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Baltimore Ravens vs. Green Bay Packers Week 11 NFL Pick from Teddy Covers: November 19th 2017

| November 19, 2017

Baltimore Ravens vs. Green Bay Packers
Week 11 NFL Pick: Baltimore -2 (November 19th 2017)
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We’ve seen the Packers offense for three games without Aaron Rodgers now, and Green Bay hasn’t been able to move the football effectively in any of them.

Yes, the Packers were able to beat lowly Chicago by a TD last week –playing with a rookie QB in a game where Bears head coach John Fox literally gave away a touchdown with an ill-fated challenge.  But they gained only 5.3 yards per play for the afternoon, converted only one of their three red zone chances into touchdowns, and did not pass the ‘eye test’ any more than they did the previous week in a Monday Night Football home loss to the Lions.

To make matters worse for the Packers, the injury bug continues to bite Mike McCarthy’s squad.  Their offensive line is riddled with key losses once again, with Brian Bulaga placed on IR and three starters listed as questionable for Sunday.  They’ve got injuries all over the place on defense too, with Morgan Burnett, Nick Perry and Kevin King all questionable.

It doesn’t stop there either.  Packers running backs Ty Montgomery and Aaron Jones, who have kept the pressure off Brett Hundley, are both banged up as well, with Jones out until December.  And perhaps most importantly of all, Hundley hurt his hamstring last week.  For a mobile QB who is at his best when moving out of the pocket and throwing on the run, that is most assuredly an impact injury, especially against the Ravens stout defensive front.

Check out more week 11 NFL pick from our handicappers at Touthouse.com

John Harbaugh’s teams have enjoyed great success off the bye.  The Ravens are 7-2 SU after bye weeks in the Harbaugh era, including 2-1 on the road. That includes a 4-0 SU record against teams that enter the game with a winning record, like they’ll face here against the 5-4 Packers.  Unlike Green Bay, Harbaugh’s squad is getting healthier; excellent news for a squad that was riddled with injuries right from the start of training camp.  His quote: “I feel like we are more full strength than we have been all year.”

The Ravens season long statistics stink, in large part due to all the early injuries they suffered.  Their 4.4 yards per play on offense, their -0.5 yards per play differential between offense and defense and Joe Flacco’s career worst 72.7 QB rating all look ugly for wiseguy bettors who peruse those stats closely.  That ensures we’re NOT going to see any kind of significant market support for Baltimore this week, despite the fact that they are the superior and healthier squad, rested and ready off their bye.  With Jeremy Maclin and Danny Woodhead both expected back on the field this week, those season long stats are more misleading than accurate for the Baltimore offense moving forward.  Take the Ravens.

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Dallas Cowboys vs. Atlanta Falcons Week 10 NFL Point Spread Pick from Teddy Covers: November 12th 2017

| November 12, 2017

Dallas Cowboys vs. Atlanta Falcons
Week 10 NFL Point Spread Pick: DAL +3 (November 12th 2017)
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I understand that Zeke Elliott is an impact running back.  I also understand that the Cowboys offensive line is mostly healthy now, and they’ve dominated for the better part of the last month.  Dak Prescott is on fire, leading the team to 28+ points in each of their last six ballgames and making good decisions with the football week after week – he’s thrown only 2 INT’s during that entire six week span.  And the trio of Alfred Morris, Rod Smith and Darren McFadden are more than capable of filling the void left by Elliott’s suspension.

The mainstream narrative is so predictable it’s not even funny.  I’ve seen so many ridiculous quotes like ‘Dak Prescott is going to have to throw 50 times a game now’  (he’s thrown more than 40 passes only twice in his 24 career starts) or ‘Dallas has no identity without Zeke’ (running backs are replaceable, and every player on every team knows it).  It’s all nonsense – remember, sports reporters are paid to produce content, not to be right.  My power rating adjustment for Dallas following the Elliott suspension news was all of a half point, and the Cowboys have been prepping and planning for this since the summer.

The wiseguys continue to support the Falcons on a weekly basis, despite their obvious and continued struggles on both sides of the football and their propensity for blowing leads.  Why the sharp love for Atlanta?  Simple – their statistical profile looks great.  The Falcons Super Bowl team from last year outgained foes by an average of 1.1 yards per snap (their yards-per-play differential between what they gain on offense vs. what they allow on defense), ranked #1 in the NFL.  This year’s Falcons squad has outgained their opponents by 1.1 yards per snap, ranked #1 in the NFL, just like last year.

Sharps focus heavily on those yards per play stats – too heavily, in this bettor’s opinion!  After all, the elite Patriots have been outgained by more than half a yard on a ypp basis this year, while a very suspect losing team like Cinci has a positive differential.  The stats might show that this year’s Falcons version is every bit as good as last year’s squad, but the eye test does not.

A Falcons team that scored 58 offensive touchdowns last year is only at 17 TD’s at the halfway point this year, with Steve Sarkisian unable to fill departed coordinator Kyle Shanahan’s big shoes.   Atlanta has been favored four times in the last five weeks.  They’ve lost three of those four games in SU fashion, with the offense unable to click during crunch time and the defense allowing 20+ in each of their last six contests.

The wiseguys are likely to keep betting on the Falcons until their statistical profile changes in a significant way.  That gives savvy bettors a legitimate overlay to fade this vastly overrated commodity.  Take the Cowboys.

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