College Football: Will Rogers betting the UCF Knights -40 points over the UConn Huskies on November 11th 2017

| November 10, 2017

UConn Huskies vs. UCF Knights
College Football Point Spread Pick: Central Florida -40 (November 11th 2017)
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The set-up: The UConn Huskies are 3-6 (2-4 in AAC play) and travel to Spectrum Stadium to face the UCF Knights 8-0 (5-0 in AAC play). The Huskies need a win here after losing six of their last eight games to give themselves an outside chance at making a bowl appearance (would need to finish 3-0). However, UConn has lost seven of its last eight road games and Saturday’s opponent is one of five FBS unbeatens and ranked No. 18 in the latest CFP rankings. Scott Frost took over at UCF after the Knights went 0-12 in 2015 and led them to a bowl appearance. Here in 2017, he has the school in position to garner a “New Year’s Six” bowl berth.

UConn: QB Bryant Shirreffs, a senior, was having his best year at UConn. He’s completed 65.8 percent of his passes for 2,287 yards with 14 TDs and just five interceptions. However, Shirreffs will miss Saturday’s game against UCF due to a concussion. The UConn running game will hardly make up for the loss, as the Huskies average just 133.0 YPG (102nd) on 3.4 YPC. Considering UConn’s defense allows 38.3 PPG (123rd) on 554.3 YPG (129th of 130 FBS schools), it’s fair to say the Huskies won’t be pulling an upset.

UCF: The UCF offense is ranked fifth in the nation at 541.0 YPG and seemingly set a new standard every week. In last week’s victory at SMU, the Knights pulled off a feat not done since the 2013 Fiesta Bowl victory against Baylor, as UCF had a 300-yard passer (McKenzie Milton), 100-yard rusher (Adrian Killins, Jr.) and 100-yard receiver (Tre’Quan Smith). The victory against SMU also set a new season-high in total offense for UCF with 615, the second time this season the Knights piled up more than 600 yards and the fourth time they surpassed 500 yards in a game. QB Milton is completing 70.0 percent with 20 TDs and just five INTs, leading the nation’s 11th-best passing offense (325.5 YPG). A deep stable of RBs average 215.6 YPG to rank 26th. Defensively, UCF is plenty good enough, allowing 20.2 PPG (28th).

The pick: UCF is undefeated but only No. 18 in the latest College Football Playoff rankings. Coach Scott Frost was asked Thursday whether he thought the committee had even watched UCF play. “I’m not going to say much about that,” Frost said. “We just have to take care of our business. Any time it becomes people’s opinions, I think it gets a little dangerous. I wouldn’t complain for us. The teams I feel bad for are the Wisconsins and Miamis. As a football player, all you can do is beat the people they put in front of you. If you’re undefeated, that’s undefeated and that means a lot. I hate to see people’s opinions have more emphasis put on them than the record on the field. But from our standpoint, we just have to take care of business and a lot of good things are headed our way.” The Huskies have allowed an average of 39.2 points in six AAC games this season, while UCF owns the highest scoring offense in FBS and is averaging 43.2 points per game in five conference games. The Knights have outscored conference opponents 216-102 and have not allowed more than 24 points in an AAC game this season. Lay the points!

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