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Free Pick: Capital One Bowl – LSU vs. Penn State: January 1st 2010

December 31st, 2009
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penn state vs. lsu handicappers pickLions, Tigers and the Citrus Bowl…oh my! When the pollsters and voters handed the Capitol One Bowl to Penn State and LSU, it was a dream come true for many college football fans. These are two marquee teams and though no titles little prestige will be awarded to the winner, respect will be paid one way or another. Two teams predicated on defense with offenses that can keep the chains churning promises a great way to kick of your New Year’s Day afternoon. The question for Joe Paterno is whether he can outsmart Les Miles in the Capital One Bowl. Of course, that may not be too hard to do.

The Tigers entered infamy after they lost to Arkansas thanks to some blatant miscommunication and mismanagement on the part of Les Miles. It was probably one of the funniest blunders to watch in 2009, with Miles streaming up and down the sidelines trying to figure out what to do. However all will be forgiven by the LSU betting backers if he can figure out a way to continue his post season prominence. LSU has won each of its last four bowl games by an average of 28.5 points per game.

Penn State may be “linebacker university”, but LSU is a turnover machine. They have generated 37 turnovers in their last 25 games. The problem is that LSU’s quarterback, Jordan Jefferson, is known to put up interceptions in big moments. The fact that some dissension between him and Miles might be undermining the trust between the two will give Penn State all they need to victimize Les Miles’ offense.

The Lions give up just 183.2 passing yards per game, 93.9 rush yards and just 11.8 points. In fact, across the board on offense and defense, Penn State beats LSU in every important statistical category.

Quarterback Darryl Clark of Penn State has been making all sorts of noise as a leader and a playmaker this season. With 2,797 yards and 23 touchdowns, along with 10 picks, Clark has proven he can be a force in the pocket. Of course, consistency will have to be proven in 2010, but for now Clark realizes that his performances in big games will determine his value in the NFL. That kind of maturity, and a pocketed win over the esteemed program from LSU, will go a long way in securing Clark’s place amongst the best in the country.

The defense in Penn State will be the key against LSU, however. I expect points to come for the Lions, but the Tigers will have all sorts of trouble with a trio of strong linebackers backing the defense of Penn State. The fact that running back Charles Scott is iffy with an injury makes me even less convinced that LSU will keep its rousing bowl performance streak intact.

Penn State is on the verge of BCS glory in the next two years. It will happen eventually, but it starts by defeating the LSU Tigers and getting a marquee victory under the belts to cap a 10-2 SU season.

Furious Free Pick: Penn Sate -2.5 (UNDER)

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Free NBA Pick: Miami Heat vs. New Orleans Hornets: December 30th 2009

December 30th, 2009
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heat vs. hornets handicappers pickMiami Heat vs. New Orleans Hornets
Free NBA Pick: New Orleans -1 (December 30th 2009 – Rob Vinciletti

On Wednesday the Free play in the NBA is on the NO. Hornets. Game 712 at 8:05 eastern. The Hornets qualify in a nice little system here tonight. What we want to do is play on home favorites of -4 or less with no rest if they were a road dog of 5 or more last night and scored 100 or more. If the opposition scored 100 or more as ahome favorite in their last game, these unrested home favorites have cashed over 80% of the time and win by an average 101-91 score. Miami is 0-9 ats vs the Hornets over the past few seasons. New Orleans is in one of their best team power angles as well tonight. They are a solid 14-1 straight up at home off a road game with no rest. Lay the small number here tonight. On Wednesday if you think this free play is strong I have a 6 unit Western Conference Game of the Year with a 17-0 system and 2 big Power Angles. In Bowl action I have a 5 unit Triple system play. All systems are hitting over 90% and the lead system at 97% long term. Those with me on Tuesday cashed big With Wisconsin. Tonight we do more damage. College hoops on late report. Take the Hornets tonight in the NBA. RV

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Free Pick: Washington Wizards vs. Memphis Grizzlies: December 28th 2009

December 28th, 2009
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wizards vs. grizzlies pickWashington Wizards vs. Memphis Grizzlies
Free Pick: Memphis -5 (December 28th 2009 – Rocky Atkinson)

Memphis is 10-2 SU and ATS at home vs Washington since 1996. Wizards are 19-42-3 ATS in their last 64 games playing on 1 days rest. Wizards are 7-16-1 ATS in their last 24 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Wizards are 6-14-2 ATS in their last 22 games as a road underdog of 5.0-10.5. Wizards are 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 vs. Western Conference. Wizards are 8-21 ATS in their last 29 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game. Wizards are 4-11-1 ATS in their last 16 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game. Wizards are 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 Monday games. Wizards are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points. Wizards are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 vs. NBA Southwest. Grizzlies are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5. Grizzlies are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall. Grizzlies are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games as a home favorite of 5.0-10.5. Grizzlies are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Grizzlies are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400. Grizzlies are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400. Grizzlies are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games playing on 1 days rest. Grizzlies are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS win. Grizzlies are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. Eastern Conference. Grizzlies are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. NBA Southeast. Grizzlies are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. Grizzlies are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games vs. a team with a losing SU record. Grizzlies are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games as a home favorite. Grizzlies are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 home games. Grizzlies are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game. Grizzlies are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games as a favorite. Home team is 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings. Favorite is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings. Wizards are 2-6 ATS in the last 8 meetings. Wizards are 0-4 ATS in the last 4 meetings in Memphis. We’ll recommend a small play on Memphis tonight! Thanks and good luck, Rocky

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Free Pick: 2009 Music City Bowl – Kentucky vs. Clemson

December 27th, 2009
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kentucky vs. clemson pickAs you look at this game from the perspective of the NCAA football bowl betting odds, you are looking for stars, you are going to find them on the Clemson team. Defensive ends Da’Quan Bowers and Ricky Sapp are standouts who will go high in the NFL Draft. DeAndre McDaniel is one of the best defensive backs in the country, and made eight interceptions on the season.

Wide receiver Jacoby Ford is a speedster who caught 53 passes for 735 yards this year. Yet the biggest star is running back CJ Spiller, the guy who should have won the Heisman Trophy. Spiller is simply the biggest game-breaker in the country, a guy who scored eleven touchdowns rushing, four more receiving and five more on kick returns, and ranked fourth in the country in all-purpose yards. His 233-yard rushing day against Georgia Tech in the ACC title game was a classic.

Here are some of the college football betting trends as they relate to this matchup:
•KY has won and covered five of its last seven games
•KY has played three of its last four games OVER the total
•CLEM has won six of its last eight games SU
•CLEM has played its last six games OVER the total

Yet Clemson lost that game, both straight-up and in the NCAA football betting odds, and that leads us to where our doubts about Clemson in this game are. We don’t question that this team has ability and playmakers, but after the surge the Tigers had toward the end of the season, during which time they won six straight games and averaged 40 points a game, it was a downer to lose to South Carolina in the big rivalry game. Another big loss was to Georgia Tech in the conference title game, which brought with it an invitation to the BCS. This is the kind of thing that might impact their performance in this game.

Clemson’s freshman quarterback, Kyle Parker, rebounded form a rough start to finish with 56% completions and 19 touchdowns. But he’ll be tested severely by the Kentucky secondary, which allowed opposing passer to complete just 48% of their throws, with 16 interceptions. Since the disastrous loss to Florida, where the Wildcats gave up 31 points in the first quarter, they have played better, and at one point, captured five of six, including straight-up wins at Georgia and Auburn. This is not a team that will roll over.

Kentucky has a pretty good two-fisted running attack, with go-to people in Derrick Locke (843 yards) and Randall “Not Tex” Cobb (537 yards), both of whom can also catch the ball out of the backfield. Cobb is the key guy in the Wildcats’ wildcat formation. Mike Hartline, who was the MVP of last year’s Liberty Bowl, has returned from injury, and he will provide a change of pace for an offense that also has the mobile Morgan Newton (55%, 5 TD’s) available at quarterback.

Kentucky is not a team that will overwhelm you with statistics, but they are very comfortable at this bowl, having appeared in Nashville three of the last four years, and coach Rich Brooks has basically said that they’ve got the drill down pat. Also, they are happy to be in the game, which maybe just as important when you’re talking about an underdog getting more than a TD.

We’re going with Kentucky, catching 7.5 points.
JAY’S PLAY: KENTUCKY +7.5 ***
(Graded on a scale of 1-4 stars)

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Free Pick: Indianapolis Colts vs. New York Jets: December 27th 2009

December 26th, 2009
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colts vs. jets free pickIndianapolis Colts vs. New York Jets
Free Pick: New York Jets +5.5 (December 27th 2009 – Matt Fargo)

The Colts snuck by yet again this past week, this time a four-point win over the Jaguars to move to 14-0 on the season. The starters played the entire game but once again there is the debate about whether or not those starters will play a full game again this week. I am playing this game as it the Colts starters will be in the entire game, or at least the majority of it, and if they come out early, that is only an added benefit to us. Colts Head Coach Jim Caldwell said Monday the team has not yet decided how long starters will play and he said he plans to play all players who are healthy, but he didn’t elaborate on just how long those healthy starters would play against the Jets and that alone tells us that they will likely be coming out before this game is over. We shall see. The Jets lost a brutal game at home against the Falcons on Sunday which severely hurt their playoff chances. Now they will have to defeat the lone remaining undefeated team in the league and then win at home against the Bengals next week who may still very well be playing for something also.

New York is tied with five other teams at 7-7 and winning out for any of them could mean nothing as they all trail both Baltimore and Denver by a game for those Wild Card playoff spots. Any losses by any of those teams means their playoff shots are done so the Jets obviously need to win this game. They have actually fared better on the road this season, going 4-3 and while this is the hardest test of all, it is one that can be passed. Indianapolis has been winning but it has been anything but impressive in my eyes. Over the last seven games, the Colts have actually been outgained in five of those and the other two saw yardage advantages by only 21 and 24 total yards. In total over this stretch, Indianapolis is -145 in yardage which is a big surprise for a team that is 7-0 over that span. Making matters worse is that they have been outrushed in eight straight games and that will play right into the gameplan of the Jets who are one of the best rushing teams in the NFL and they have a +271 rushing yardage differential over the last three games.

The overall Jets defense has been great recently and what better time to be playing good than against one of the best offenses in the NFL. New York has allowed only 8.0 ppg over the last four games and it has outgained all four opponents. If not for a late touchdown by the Falcons, the Jets would be on a 4-0 run heading into this game. The Jets also fall into a solid contrarian situation. Play against teams with a winning percentage greater than .750 after three consecutive covers as a favorite in the second half of the season. This situation is 23-7 ATS (76.7 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 3* New York Jets

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Free Pick: Oakland Raiders vs. Cleveland Browns: December 27th 2009

December 25th, 2009
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raiders vs. browns pickOakland Raiders vs. Cleveland Browns
Free Pick: Oakland +3 (December 27th 2009 – Wunderdog Sports)

The Raiders undoubtedly have QB issues, but last week they pounded the Broncos for 241 yards on the ground. Charlie Frye gets the start here and against Cleveland, he’ll be good enough. After watching the Chiefs go for 5.6 yards a pop vs. the Browns, I expect Oakland to find some success in this game. The Raiders were struggling against the run, but the last two weeks have held opponents to less than 3.8 yards per carry in each contest. Brady Quinn is done for the year, meaning Derek Anderson gets the QB assignment which hasn’t been good for the Browns. He has already had two chances to secure the starting role, with the lowly Quinn his competition. He couldn’t grab the starting spot either time. The Raiders and Browns are both bad teams, but the Raiders have shown a much higher ceiling with wins over Denver, Pittsburgh and Philadelphia. Cleveland has had no success as a favorite and really don’t belong in that role as the last four times they have been given the oddsmakers edge they are 0-4 ATS. The fact is that in those four games, the Browns lost them all straight up, which certainly is more likely than not to repeat itself here. The Raiders have played their best ball on the road this year, posting three of their five wins, while the Browns are just 1-5 at home. I like the Raiders in this one.

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College Football Bowl Game Weekend Previews: December 24th-27th 2009

December 24th, 2009
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bowl game picks previews odds Hawaii Bowl: SMU Mustangs (7-5, 6-5 ATS) vs. Nevada Wolfpack (8-4, 7-5 ATS): The Wolfpack and Mustangs get it on at the Hawaii Bowl on Christmas Eve night on the islands, and the storylines are juicy in this college football bowl betting affair! Both Nevada RBs Vai Taua (eligibility) and Luke Lippincott (injury) will be out of the game, which takes away a significant portion of its potent rushing attack. The unit averaged almost 60 more yards per game than anyone else in the country. This will also be a homecoming for SMU HC June Jones, who coached Hawaii to a BCS game just two years ago. Nevada has dropped from -15.5 to -12.5 in this game. The ‘total’ comes in at 72.5.

Little Caesars Bowl: Ohio Bobcats (9-4, 9-4 ATS) vs. Marshall Thundering Herd (6-6, 6-5 ATS): Former MAC rivals square off in the Little Caesars Bowl on Saturday afternoon to kick off a triple-header of games. The Bobcats came up just short of what would’ve been an incredibly surprising MAC Championship. They’ll look to take down the Herd as three-point favorites, who are set to welcome in their new HC Doc Holliday for next season. The Little Caesars Bowl college football point spread features a ‘total’ of 49.

Meineke Car Care Bowl: North Carolina Tar Heels (8-4, 6-5 ATS) vs. Pittsburgh Panthers (9-3, 7-4 ATS): In one of the best undercard bowl games of the season, the Panthers and Tar Heels will get it on in what will amount to be a home game for UNC. Both teams are coming off of bad losses to end their regular seasons that clearly hurt their bowl berths. Carolina lost to its rivals from NC State, while Pittsburgh just narrowly missed out on a chance to win the Big East by losing by a point at home to the Bearcats. The college football point spread in this one features Pitt by a field goal, while the ‘total’ has been set at 44.5.

Emerald Bowl: Boston College Eagles (8-4, 6-5 ATS) vs. Southern California Trojans (8-4, 3-9 ATS): Two of college football’s traditional powers get together in the Emerald Bowl on Saturday night to wrap up the three-pack of games. Two freshman quarterbacks, BC’s David Shinskie and USC’s Matt Barkley, will be getting their first taste of the bowl season. These two teams haven’t met on the gridiron since 1988. Not many are giving the Eagles a chance of taking down the mighty Trojans, as BC has been set at +7.5. The ‘total’ at BetUS.com is 44.

Music City Bowl: Kentucky Wildcats (7-5, 6-6 ATS) vs. Clemson Tigers (8-5, 8-5 ATS): For the second time in the L/3 years, the Wildcats and Tigers will get together in Nashville for the Music City Bowl. This year, Clemson has to be bitterly disappointed with its bowl assignment. The Tigers came oh so close to going to the Orange Bowl as the ACC Champions, and was passed up by Florida State, Miami, and Virginia Tech for better bowl slots. HC Rich Brooks just has to be happy to have his UK squad bowling once again, even though this is its third trip in the L/4 years to this game. The Tigers are seven-point favorites, with the over/under being set at 52.

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Free Pick: Los Angeles Clippers vs. Phoenix Suns: December 24th 2009

December 24th, 2009
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suns clippers betting pickLos Angeles Clippers vs. Phoenix Suns
Free Pick: Phoenix -9.5 (December 24th 2009 – Dave Price)
Really think the Suns are primed and ready for a blowout here after enduring back-to-back home defeats – their first two home losses of the season. Last season, the Suns defeated the Clippers 140-100 at home as a 9-point favorite, and while I don’t see this one getting anywhere near that ugly, I do see a double digit margin of victory for Phoenix here. The Suns will be highly motivated after back-to-back defeats and they won’t take the Clippers lightly because they only won by 2 points in LA in the season’s first meeting. The biggest edge Phoenix has here is its 3-point shooting. In fact, the Clippers are just 1-10 ATS versus teams who attempt 18 or more 3 point shots/game on the season this season, losing these games by an average score of 88.5 to 100.4. Take the Suns.

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Free NHL Hockey Betting Picks: December 23rd 2009

December 23rd, 2009
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free nhl picks december 23Columbus Blue Jackets vs. Dallas Stars
Free Pick: Columbus +131 (Wunderdog Sports)
What happened to the Blue Jackets? They were sailing along and now have had just two of their last 15 end on the right side. Those numbers could be so different if not for the fact they have five shootout losses in the stretch, so it’s not as bad as it appears. Dallas hasn’t been pretty lately either as they have allowed 47 goals in their last 13 games, or 3.6 per contest. There is certainly room for Columbus to find a way to get healthy here as they are 5-1 in their last six vs. a team with a losing home record. The Stars aren’t shinning in the home-favorite role from -110 to -150, at just 3-9 in their last 12. There is added value by the Jackets’ success in Dallas winning five of the last seven. I’ll go with Columbus here.

 

Atlanta Thrashers vs. Boston Bruins
Free Pick: Boston -148 (John Ryan)
Ai Simulator 3* graded play on Boston as they host Atlanta in NHL action set to start at 7:00 EST. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 44-16 making 30.8 units since 2004. Play against any team against the money line revenging a same season loss vs opponent and is off 2 consecutive close home losses by 1 goal. Here is a 2nd system that has gone 69-44 making 26 units since 2004. Play against any team against the money line extremely tired team playing 8 or more games in 14 days and winning between 51% and 60% of their games on the season in the first half of the season. Boston is a solid 31-15 against the money line (+14.6 Units) against explosive offensive teams that are scoring 3+ goals/game over the last 2 seasons. Take Boston.

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Free NBA Basketball Betting Picks: December 23rd 2009

December 23rd, 2009
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Free NBA Picks: December 23Portland Trailblazers vs. San Antonio Spurs
Free Pick: San Antonio -11 (Black widow)
The Blazers have been bitten by the injury bug recently. Greg Oden is out for the season, and Joel Pryzbilla just tore a tendon in his knee last night and is out for the year as well. Also, Brandon Roy injured his shoulder last game, and is doubtful to play tonight. Not to mention, key contributors in Rudy Fernandez and Travis Outlaw are each missing time right now due to injury. Any way you put it, the Blazers cannot compete with the Spurs tonight with the injuries they are dealing with. The Spurs are 6-1 in their last 7 games, winning 5 times by 12 points or more. The Spurs are 92-53 ATS (+33.7 Units) in home games when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 70%) since 1996. Take San Antonio and lay the points.

 

Washington Wizards vs. Milwaukee Bucks
Free Pick: Milwaukee Buccks -7 (Jack Jones)
The Bucks have been very solid at home this year, scoring 103.6 ppg against teams allowing 99.2 ppg and compared to their 98 average in all contests. Defensively this team hasn’t been bad either, allowing 98.9 ppg against teams scoring 98.5, a big reason they spot a 9-5 mark on their home floor. They’ll be playing a below average team tonight in the Washington Wizards, who enter tonight’s game at 9-17 and 4-10 on the road. They are scoring just 96.1 ppg as a visitor against teams allowing 99.6 and giving up 102.9 ppg against teams averaging 99.4. With Washington playing on back-to-back nights, and the Bucks having covered six of their last seven games, I’d say the edge tonight is with the home team.

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Free Pick: College of Charleston vs. Hawaii: December 22nd 2009

December 22nd, 2009
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hawaii vs. charleston pickCollege of Charleston vs. Hawaii
Free Pick: Hawaii -5 (December 22nd 2009 – Freddy Wills)

This one comes late and is the last of 4 games in the Diamond Head classic. The only team with home field advantage of the East vs. West tournament will be Hawaii. A place they necessarily have not played well ATS at home. HOwever, I like them to cover tonight because they will play a Charleston team that is -14ppg, -15 rpg, and -10.8 FTA on the road this year. Granted the competition in terms of playing teams from higher divisions is there, but overall they have played an opponent with a .425 winning % compared to Hawaii at .674. Hawaii ranked 101 points higher in the RPI and for good reason. What Charleston doesn’t do well Hawaii does well which is rebound. Charleston is giving their opponents 6 more FG attempts this season and it’s because their opponents are grabbing 14.3 offensive rebounds a game. This is just flat out awful. The reason it’s happening particularly on road is nearly half of their FG attempts are three pointers. Therefore we must look at whether or not Hawaii can defend the three and against three top 100 3PT% teams in New Mexico, Northern Colorado, and BYU. Granted Hawaii may have lost those games, but they are facing an inferrior opponent that lacks the ability to rebound. If Hawaii can out rebound which I think they can as they are +5.2 at home and get to the FT line which they will as they are +9.6 at home they will win this game easily. The key will be to stop the perimeter shooting of Charleston and with Charleston having to travel and play in unusual late game at almost 1 AM their local time things could be off just enough for Hawaii to cruise.

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Free NBA Basketball Betting Picks: December 22nd 2009

December 22nd, 2009
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Free NBA Basketball Picks for December 22Chicago Bulls vs. New York Knicks
Free Pick: Under 201 points (December 22nd 2009 – Jimmy Boyd)
The Knicks have played to the Under in 4 straight and 6 of their last 7 as they have failed to break the century mark in their last 4 games. Odds makers have failed to adjust their lines to the slower pace that New York has been playing. We saw these two teams combine for just 187 points in Chicago last week and I expect them to stay under 200 total points tonight. The Under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings in New York and 4-0 in the last 4 meetings period. It is also worth noting that Chicago is even 8-0 Under versus terrible defensive teams allowing a shooting percentage of 48% or better over the last 2 seasons. The average combined total score in these games is just 195.3. Bet the Under.

Golden State Warriors vs. Memphis Grizzlies
Free Pick: Over 219 points (December 22nd 2009 – Jeff Alexander
Bottom Line: Golden State is rested and that has been a solid Overs situation. In fact, Golden State is 23-11 Over when playing 4 or less games in 10 days over the last 3 seasons. The average score in these spots has totaled 224 points. Golden State is also 18-4 Over after failing to cover the spread in 3 or more consecutive games over the last 3 seasons. The average score in these spots has totaled 229.1 points. We’ll take the Over for 1 Unit tonight.

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Free Pick: Pepperdine vs. Cal Irvine: December 21st 2009

December 21st, 2009
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pepperdine122109Pepperdine vs. Cal Irvine
Free Pick: Cal Irvine -4 (December 21st 2009 – Rob Vinciletti)

On Monday the free play is on UC Irvine. Game 726 at 10:00 eastern. Pepperdine is strictly a go against team this season thus far. They have been horrendous regardless of the venue. They are 0-14 and 5-9 ats on the road in this total range,12-32 vs non conference teams and 7-17 off 3+ losses. UC Irvine has been a solid home favorite in this range winning and covering all 4 times. They have cashed 10 of 13 against the spread in December games and have won and covered all three of their games vs losing teams. Look for UC Irvinve to bounce back and cash tonight. In late phone action we wrapped up an 8th straight winning week. Tonight we start the week with a Double System NFL play on the Monday card and a big Double Power angle play on the college hoops card one of the angles is a perfect 12-0. jump on and start cashing. Take UC Irvine minus the small number tonight. RV

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Free Pick: Los Angeles Clippers vs. San Antonio Spurs: December 21st 2009

December 21st, 2009
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clippers122109Los Angeles Clippers vs. San Antonio Spurs
Free Pick: San Antonio Spurs -9 (December 21st 2009 – Big Al McMordie)

At 8:35 pm, our complimentary selection is on the San Antonio Spurs minus the points over the Los Angeles Clippers. Inconsistency has defined the Spurs’ season, and much of it seems to crop up in the 3rd quarters of games. Indeed, against the Pacers on Saturday, San Antonio was victim to a 38-20 thrashing in the 3rd quarter, and needed a big rally in the final stanza to get the 100-99 victory. Coach Gregg Popovich is, understandably, getting a bit frustrated and wants to see a full effort from his team. The bad news for the Spurs is that they’ll be without their long-range sharpshooter, Matt Bonner, for at least a month after he broke a bone in his right hand. But the good news is that San Antonio is a deep team, and Bonner’s injury will afford more playing time to Roger Mason, Jr., also a very good shooter. The Spurs have defeated the Clippers 13 straight times in the Alamo City, and also easily won by 25 in Los Angeles a mere eight days ago. Lay the points. Good luck, as always…Al McMordie.

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Free Pick: Washington Redskins vs. New York Giants: December 21st 2009

December 20th, 2009
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giants122109New York Giants vs. Washington Redskins
Free Pick: New York Giants -140 (December 21st 2009 – John Ryan)

The Giants and the Cowboys have all but given the division championship to the Eagles. The Giants have an outside shot, especially given Dallas’ December woes. This is a 3* graded play on the Giants. A Simulator shows an 73% probability that the Giants will the Giants will win this game by 4 or more points. Supporting this graded play is a solid and proven money making system that has gone 30-9 ATS since 2004. Play against home dogs or pick that are an average offensive team scoring 18 to 23 PPG facing a good offensive team scoring 23-27 PPG. 45% of these games covered the number by 7 or more points. Giants are an impressive 16-3 ATS (+12.7 Units) versus excellent punt coverage teams allowing <= 7.5 yards per return over the last 3 seasons; 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) versus excellent passing teams with a completion percentage of 64% or better in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons. They are also a sound 20-6 ATS (+13.4 Units) in road games after allowing 30 points or more last game since 1992. Meanwhile the Redskins are just 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) after allowing 99 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games over the last 3 seasons.

OK, sounds like an old story for any team let alone an NFC East team, but the Giants MUST get the running game going in a dominating fashion. Washington is very vulnerable to a pounding running game and the matchups favor the Giants to have big success on the ground. Brandon Jacobs was having great success against the Eagles until that game turned into a shoot out. He has a 90% probability of getting 100 yards against the Redskins. Obviously, if he is pounding the run game between the tackles it will most assuredly open up play action pass plays. It will also allow for slant routes and especially the WR or flanker screen. Based on the matchups, I see the Giants winning BIG.

I appreciate all of you that purchase all of my daily sports cards each and every day. It has been a banner year in sales. I would like to open up the opportunity for you to get a Bowl subscription now. I went 13-1 ATS in the bowl games last season. That’s not a typo. 13-1 ATS so join me for another highly profitable bowl season.

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