Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Free Pick: Kansas City Royals +220
Courtesy of Mike Rose (Handicapperspicks.com)
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Tropicana Field should be ready to rock and roll tonight for the first of a four game series between the Kansas City Royals and the Tampa Bay Rays.

The Royals have shown signs of promise this year, but they’ve lost a number of one run and extra inning games this season. They just wrapped up a six game home stand in which they went 2-4, but lost two of those games by one run and one in extras.

Tampa Bay is having no such problems. The 2008 American League champs are rolling, as they have the best record in baseball and have won four straight games.

No Royals pitcher has been better since the acquisition of C Jason Kendall than RHP Luke Hochevar. The righty was lit up for a 6.55 ERA a year ago, but he has settled down into four respectable starts this year.

Hochevar, formerly the #1 overall pick in the MLB Draft, is 2-0 with a 3.55 ERA, and he is out of the chute full of potential for a great third year in the majors.

RHP Matt Garza’s most recent start was his only lousy effort of the season to date. He allowed five runs in as many innings of work in the Rays’ 6-5 loss to the Blue Jays; the only loss so far on this home stand.

For the season, the right-hander is 3-1 with a 2.17 ERA, as he hadn’t allowed more than one earned run in any of his previous three starts.

Tampa Bay is just 2-10 in Garza’s L/12 starts against the AL Central.

It’s hard to argue with anything that Garza has done on the mound this year, but it’s also hard to lay this type of price on him in this game.

The Royals are a significantly better team than their record and history indicate, and we’ll take our chances tonight at some hefty odds that Hochevar can keep his solid season going and lead Kansas City to victory.

Take the big odds and back the Royals over Tampa on Thursday night!

Washington Nationals vs. Chicago Cubs
Free Pick: Under 8 Runs
Courtesy of Mike Rose (Handicapperspicks.com)
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Washington evened the series up last night after it secured a 3-1 victory behind yet another stellar pitching performance from Livan Hernandez; the crafty veteran went seven strong while allowing six hits and one run to push the Nats across the .500 mark.

Lefty Tom Gorzelanny came out the tough luck loser once again after allowing just five hits and a pair of ER’s through seven innings of work.

Closer Matt Capps hammered down his league leading ninth save of the season. The Nationals have now won three of the L/5 games played between these clubs at Sheffield and Addison.

Just after Jason Marquis was put on the DL, Atilano got the call and tossed against the Dodgers the following day. April 23rd, 2010 will be a day Luis Atilano never forgets, as it marked his debut in the “Bigs.”

With the Dodgers ripping the cover off the ball to start the year, it’s very impressive that he limited them to just five hits and one ER through his six innings of work. He helped lead his club to the 5-1 home victory, and for his efforts, he received a couple pies in the face in post-game interviews courtesy of starting pitchers John Lannan and Livan Hernandez.

With the Cubs dropping four of its previous five, they were badly in need of a win to get back on track. So, after watching his teammate’s botch a pair of incredible starts, Ryan Dempster took it upon himself to lead his club to victory by simply shutting what were the red hot Brewers down through 7.2 innings of work last Friday.

Milwaukee entered last weekend’s series with the Cubs having scored 47 runs in its previous four games. That hardly seemed to bother “Demp” as he limited the Brew Crew to just seven hits and one ER while striking out four and issuing one free pass to tally his second win of the 2010 season.

Cubs/Nats lined at 8 Over -115 for a day game after each of the first two went comfortably under the number? Oddsmakers are begging you to jump on the over here with the rookie making his first career road start!

Warning alarms went off the moment this number was released! I’m not biting, nor do I recommend you either!

The Nationals have been getting it done in the pitching department this season. Save for the six over’s they played in against the Phillies, the under would be 10-4 ATS overall.

HP ump Gerry Davis is an under guy with it cashing eight of the L/12 times he was behind the dish (8-2-2 ATS).

Look for the Cubs to once again struggle with a pitcher they’ve never seen before, and for Dempster to churn out his fourth quality start in five tries. Under she goes!

Chicago Cubs vs. Washington Nationals
Free Pick: Washington Nationals +142
Courtesy of Mike Rose (Handicapperspicks.com)
Click here for expert MLB baseball picks

The Northside will be rocking once again this evening when the Chicago Cubs welcome the Washington Nationals into Wrigley Field for the second of the team’s three scheduled battles.

The Cubs scored a 4-3 walk-off win in extra innings last night when 3B Aramis Ramirez earned a bases loaded walk in the bottom of the 10th inning. The victory was the Cubs fourth in a row and fifth in their L/6 tries to move manager Lou Piniella’s squad to .500 on the year.

It was a well played game that saw both clubs combine for 18 hits, no errors, and both John Lannan and Carlos Silva each pitched at least six innings. The Cubs have now beaten the Nats in six of the L/8 meetings.

Livan Hernandez had the displeasure of matching wits with Colorado Rockies starter Ubaldo Jimenez his last time out. It just so happened to be the outing right after he tossed a no-no against the Atlanta Braves. The grizzled veteran put forth yet another quality start giving up just four hits (2 HR) and two ER’s while K’ing five and walking a pair through eight IP, but he got zero support from his offense and fell to Ubaldo and the Rockies 2-0.

Southpaw Tom Gorzelanny gets his fourth call to the starting bump tonight looking to bounce back from the tough luck loss he absorbed in his most recent outing against the Mets.

The Cubs are 3-1 as home chalk in the -150 to -175 range this season and a $$$-making 36-16 in that role the L/3 seasons. They’re also on a winning streak.

That said; the only value in this one lies with the visiting Nationals, as Livan has come out of the gates in fine form while Gorzelanny has been a tough luck loser. Washington was right there last night against Silva who had actually led the Cubs to some wins this year; Gorzo hasn’t.

Home plate ump Scott Barry tends to lean to the visitor for some reason as it stands 20-7 the L/27 games he called balls and strikes.

The Nationals are 6-2 the L/8 times they were tagged underdogs in the +110 to +150 range and are 7-2 off a loss this season. Look for them to even the series up tonight!

The AFL betting season enters its fifth week of play this week with a full slate of games. Check out how we’re ranking the clubs through the first two weeks of the season!

1: Chicago Rush (4-0 SU, 2-1-1 ATS) (LW: 1) – The Rush have really been on a roll, continuing to pummel each of their opponents. The Blaze never stood a chance against them this week in the Windy City, as Chicago notched its third double digit victory of the year. No one wants to get in this team’s way right now.
Up Next: Bye

2: Milwaukee Iron (3-0 SU, 3-0 ATS) (LW: 3) - Milwaukee trailed Tampa Bay by 10 points in the third quarter, but it turned the jets on for three straight touchdowns to put the Storm in the dust. The Iron may have the scariest offense in the league, averaging 70.3 points per game.
Up Next: Away @ Alabama

3: Tulsa Talons (2-1 SU, 3-0 ATS) (LW: 2) – We’re not going to punish Tulsa much for losing in the dying seconds to the Rattlers on the road. The Talons have by far played the hardest schedule in the league to date, and they’ve got another tough roadie in the Sunshine State this week.
Up Next: Away @ Jacksonville

4: Spokane Shock (2-1 SU, 1-2 ATS) (LW: 4) - The Shock hold firm at #4 in the AFL power poll this week after enjoying their first of two bye weeks. Spokane’s next four foes have combined to win just two games this year.
Up Next: Home vs. Cleveland

5: Bossier City Battle Wings (2-1 SU, 3-0 ATS) (LW: 5) - Bossier City is another one of these teams that has a cupcake schedule in the coming weeks that should improve its playoff positioning. Not only is winless Utah on deck, but Oklahoma City waits after that. These are both road games though, and the Battle Wings have yet to prove that they can win away from Shreveport this year.
Up Next: Away @ Utah

6: Arizona Rattlers (2-1 SU, 1-2 ATS) (LW: 9) - The Rattlers needed every last second on the clock, but QB Nick Davila threw the game winning touchdown pass as time expired on Friday night against Tulsa. The Talons stuck in front of the narrow spread, but no one in Arizona is going to mind. The Rattlers have two more very tough games coming up, starting with a trip to the St. Pete Times Forum this weekend.
Up Next: Away @ Tampa Bay

And the rest…
 7: Alabama Vipers (2-1 SU, 2-1 ATS) (LW: 6)
8: Jacksonville Sharks (2-1 SU, 2-1 ATS) (LW: 8 )
9: Tampa Bay Storm (1-2 SU, 1-2 ATS) (LW: 7)
10: Iowa Barnstormers (1-2 SU, 1-2 ATS) (LW: 12)
11: Dallas Vigilantes (0-2 SU, 0-2 ATS) (LW: 10)
12: Cleveland Gladiators (0-3 SU, 1-2 ATS) (LW: 13)
13: Oklahoma City Yard Dawgz (1-2 SU, 1-2 ATS) (LW: 11)
14: Orlando Predators (0-2 SU, 0-2 ATS) (LW: 13)
15: Utah Blaze (0-3 SU, 1-2 ATS) (LW: 15)

If you look at baseball betting as if it were the stock market, here’s a look at what we’re buying and selling through another week of play on the diamond.

Bullish Squads

New York Mets (6-1, +$565): Things are hot and cold for the Mets right now. 3B David Wright is getting booed because he had strikeouts in almost half of his ABs this week, but RHP Mike Pelfrey (whom we’ll discuss later) is on fire. Coming home was just what the doctor ordered for the boys from the Big Apple, as they are a solid 6-1 on this 10 game home stand.

 San Diego Padres (5-1, +$433): The Padres rolled off an eight-game winning streak before getting nipped by the Reds in the final game of their three game set on Sunday. The streak moved San Diego to the top of the NL West in spite of the fact that the team is only averaging 4.61 runs per game, the 13th best mark in the majors. No one really expects to see this continue, but for the time being, the Padres’ stock is definitely rising.

Bearish Squads

Pittsburgh Pirates (0-6, -$600): The oddsmakers certainly got it right with the Pirates this week, as they were dogs in every single game that they played. Pittsburgh allowed a whopping 9.2 runs per game this week, including conceding 20 to the Brewers in the most lopsided loss in franchise history. The Bucs started the year at 7-5 and looked ready to compete, but this losing streak has stuffed them back where they belong, in the gutter of the NL Central.

Atlanta Braves (1-5, -$516): The Braves ran into a buzz saw in New York this week, but the bats are starting to become a real concern once again for Manager Bobby Cox. Atlanta hasn’t scored more than four runs in a game in its L/8 baseball betting battles, getting shutout three times in the interim. The team is averaging just 3.89 runs per game this year, but Cox would love to see them get anywhere near that this week after plating just six runs in its L/5 games.

Player to Buy – Mike Pelfrey, New York Mets (2-0, 0.00 ERA): With all due respect to LHP Johan Santana, the man that has kept New York’s pitching staff together has been RHP Mike Pelfrey. Pelfrey has thrown 24 straight bagels on the board, easily the longest streak in the majors. He has pitched in five games this year and has four wins and a save to show for it. A 0.69 ERA is awesome, and if he can stick anywhere near that for the rest of the year, the Mets are going to be tough to topple.

Player to Sell – Carlos Quentin, Chicago White Sox (.050 BA, 1 HR): The good news for Quentin is that his one hit this week was a home run. The bad news is that batting 1/20 isn’t going to cut it too often. The Sox are having a miserable time trying to plate runs right now scoring just 3.89 runs per game, and Quentin is a big part of the problem. He hit 21 homers last year and 36 the year before, but this year, he only has three, and his .154 BA is pitiful.

San Diego Padres vs. Cincinnati Reds
Free Pick: San Diego Padres +109
Courtesy of Mike Rose (Handicapperspicks.com)
Click here for expert MLB baseball picks

The Padres have been quite the surprise to start the season, as they enter today’s battle with the Reds winners of seven in a row. They hold a one-game lead over the San Francisco Giants after just sweeping them at Petco Park.

As for the Reds, they stand three-games under .500 heading into this afternoon’s game after getting rocked in the series opener.

Wade LeBlanc will get his second starting nod of the season from manager Bud black after he churned out a decent showing against Arizona after most recently getting called back up from Triple-A.

He ended up tossing five innings of one run ball and allowed seven hits (3 to Mark Reynolds) while striking out seven and walking a pair. The southpaw went 3-1 with a 3.69 ERA and allowed just 35 hits and 19 ER’s through nine starts for the Padres a season ago.

Though he’s yet to figure in a decision this season, the Reds are just 1-2 in Cueto’s three overall starts. He owns a 5.06 ERA & 1.69 WHIP and has allowed nine ER’s and 19 hits through just 16 total innings of work. Opponents are batting .292 against him to date.

The power righty has thrown 100+ pitches in each of his first three starts, but has only managed to get through six innings once. He allowed five hits and three ER’s with a K/BB ratio of 4/4 his last time out against the Pirates; a game the Reds lost 5-4.

The Padres are a rock solid 19-7 the L/26 times they played in the second game of a series, and they’re 4-1 in LeBlanc’s L/5 road starts.

Something is wrong with Cueto right now, and that’s not good news for Reds fans or their betting backers. He’s instrumental towards helping the team earn its first winning mark in years.

With neither starter figuring to go more than six innings, I have to side with the team with the better bullpen in this one. San Diego’s unit currently ranks 7th overall with a 4-0 record and unit ERA of 3.04. Closer Heath Bell has also only blown one save in five chances.

The Reds unit ranks 25th overall and is 6-4 with a bloated 6.02 ERA. It also has three blown saves in nine tries.

Look for the Padres to cash as slight underdogs once again today. Their a feel good story right now, but watch it if this young squad continues to win games.