NCAAF Pick: Larry Ness betting USC -16 over UCLA on November 18th 2017

| November 17, 2017

UCLA Bruins vs. USC Trojans
College Football Point Spread Pick: USC -16 (November 18th 2017)
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The 5-5 UCLA Bruins are at USC to take on the 9-2 Trojans and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side.

UCLA comes in off a 44-34 victory over Aizona State, while USC most recently posted a 38-24 road win over Colorado last weekend.

Note that when these team’s met last year, it was USC that scored the relatively simple 36-14 victory.

The Bruins looked terrible on the defensive side in their win over Arizona State last Saturday, giving up 584 total yards, including 290 through the air. With a much more “winnable” game at home against 5-5 Cal in their season finale, QB Josh Rosen and company could be caught looking ahead.

The Trojans didn’t look overly impressive defensively last week either, giving up 486 total yards. But the unit came up big when it had to, bending but not breaking with two key INT’s (note that the defense has three picks over the last two games.) USC QB Sam Darnold was 21 of 34 for 329 yards, two TD’s and no INT’s.

Another Perspective?: Check out Brandon Lee’s USC vs. UCLA pick here

I’ll point out that UCLA is just 1-8 ATS in its last nine off a win against a conference rival (including 0-2 ATS this year), while USC is 3-1 ATS in its last four after scoring 37 points or more in its previous outing.

This is an important game for both teams, but there’s no way that USC takes the foot off the gas at this point. I’m expecting a rout from start to finish. Consider the Trojans in this matchup.

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