North Carolina Tar Heels vs. Pittsburgh Panthers NCAAF Point Spread Pick from Brandon Lee: November 9th 2017

| November 9, 2017

North Carolina Tar Heels vs. Pittsburgh Panthers
NCAAF Point Spread Pick: NC +9.5 (November 9th 2017)
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As surprising as it might sound, I think there’s some value here with North Carolina as a decently priced road dog in this matchup. One thing you have to keep in mind with the Tar Heels 1-8 start is the brutal schedule they have had to play. Out of those 8 losses, 4 were against ranked teams and another was a road game against a very good Georgia Tech team. The other two were against Duke and Virginia, who I think are on par with Pittsburgh and they played both of those teams tough.

I also think this team gained some much-needed confidence with how well they played in their last game against Miami. At the same time, I don’t think the Tar Heels are simply going to just throw in the towel. I expect this team to come out and play their hearts out in this one to try and get that elusive first conference win.

The other big key here is I’m not sold on Pittsburgh being good enough to be laying this many points, especially with starting quarterback Max Browne sidelined for the rest of the season with a shoulder injury. Backup Ben Dinucci hasn’t exactly impressed in relief of Browne, as he’s completing just 54.9% of his attempts with as many touchdowns (4) as interceptions (4).

Pittsburgh’s offense has went from a pass-happy attack to one that almost exclusively relies on the running game since Browne went down. In their last two games they rushed it 57 times against Duke and had 40 rushing attempts against Virginia. While North Carolina’s defense isn’t anything to write home about, they did hold Miami to just 59 rushing yards on 32 attempts in their last game. If they have any kind of success slowing down this Pitt rushing attack, they not only can keep this within the number, but win the game outright.

It’s also worth pointing out that this is the part of the season where UNC head coach Larry Fedora has got his teams to play their best football, as the Tar Heels are 22-10 ATS under Fedora in weeks 10 through 13 of the regular season. North Carolina is also 30-15 ATS in their last 45 when coming in having failed to cover 4 or 5 of their last 6 and 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games played on Thursday. Give me the Tar Heels +9.5!

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