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Free Pick: Indianapolis Colts vs. New York Jets: December 27th 2009

| December 26, 2009 | 0 Comments

colts vs. jets free pickIndianapolis Colts vs. New York Jets
Free Pick: New York Jets +5.5 (December 27th 2009 – Matt Fargo)

The Colts snuck by yet again this past week, this time a four-point win over the Jaguars to move to 14-0 on the season. The starters played the entire game but once again there is the debate about whether or not those starters will play a full game again this week. I am playing this game as it the Colts starters will be in the entire game, or at least the majority of it, and if they come out early, that is only an added benefit to us. Colts Head Coach Jim Caldwell said Monday the team has not yet decided how long starters will play and he said he plans to play all players who are healthy, but he didn’t elaborate on just how long those healthy starters would play against the Jets and that alone tells us that they will likely be coming out before this game is over. We shall see. The Jets lost a brutal game at home against the Falcons on Sunday which severely hurt their playoff chances. Now they will have to defeat the lone remaining undefeated team in the league and then win at home against the Bengals next week who may still very well be playing for something also.

New York is tied with five other teams at 7-7 and winning out for any of them could mean nothing as they all trail both Baltimore and Denver by a game for those Wild Card playoff spots. Any losses by any of those teams means their playoff shots are done so the Jets obviously need to win this game. They have actually fared better on the road this season, going 4-3 and while this is the hardest test of all, it is one that can be passed. Indianapolis has been winning but it has been anything but impressive in my eyes. Over the last seven games, the Colts have actually been outgained in five of those and the other two saw yardage advantages by only 21 and 24 total yards. In total over this stretch, Indianapolis is -145 in yardage which is a big surprise for a team that is 7-0 over that span. Making matters worse is that they have been outrushed in eight straight games and that will play right into the gameplan of the Jets who are one of the best rushing teams in the NFL and they have a +271 rushing yardage differential over the last three games.

The overall Jets defense has been great recently and what better time to be playing good than against one of the best offenses in the NFL. New York has allowed only 8.0 ppg over the last four games and it has outgained all four opponents. If not for a late touchdown by the Falcons, the Jets would be on a 4-0 run heading into this game. The Jets also fall into a solid contrarian situation. Play against teams with a winning percentage greater than .750 after three consecutive covers as a favorite in the second half of the season. This situation is 23-7 ATS (76.7 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 3* New York Jets

Free Pick: Oakland Raiders vs. Cleveland Browns: December 27th 2009

| December 25, 2009 | 0 Comments

raiders vs. browns pickOakland Raiders vs. Cleveland Browns
Free Pick: Oakland +3 (December 27th 2009 – Wunderdog Sports)

The Raiders undoubtedly have QB issues, but last week they pounded the Broncos for 241 yards on the ground. Charlie Frye gets the start here and against Cleveland, he’ll be good enough. After watching the Chiefs go for 5.6 yards a pop vs. the Browns, I expect Oakland to find some success in this game. The Raiders were struggling against the run, but the last two weeks have held opponents to less than 3.8 yards per carry in each contest. Brady Quinn is done for the year, meaning Derek Anderson gets the QB assignment which hasn’t been good for the Browns. He has already had two chances to secure the starting role, with the lowly Quinn his competition. He couldn’t grab the starting spot either time. The Raiders and Browns are both bad teams, but the Raiders have shown a much higher ceiling with wins over Denver, Pittsburgh and Philadelphia. Cleveland has had no success as a favorite and really don’t belong in that role as the last four times they have been given the oddsmakers edge they are 0-4 ATS. The fact is that in those four games, the Browns lost them all straight up, which certainly is more likely than not to repeat itself here. The Raiders have played their best ball on the road this year, posting three of their five wins, while the Browns are just 1-5 at home. I like the Raiders in this one.

College Football Bowl Game Weekend Previews: December 24th-27th 2009

| December 24, 2009 | 0 Comments

bowl game picks previews odds Hawaii Bowl: SMU Mustangs (7-5, 6-5 ATS) vs. Nevada Wolfpack (8-4, 7-5 ATS): The Wolfpack and Mustangs get it on at the Hawaii Bowl on Christmas Eve night on the islands, and the storylines are juicy in this college football bowl betting affair! Both Nevada RBs Vai Taua (eligibility) and Luke Lippincott (injury) will be out of the game, which takes away a significant portion of its potent rushing attack. The unit averaged almost 60 more yards per game than anyone else in the country. This will also be a homecoming for SMU HC June Jones, who coached Hawaii to a BCS game just two years ago. Nevada has dropped from -15.5 to -12.5 in this game. The ‘total’ comes in at 72.5.

Little Caesars Bowl: Ohio Bobcats (9-4, 9-4 ATS) vs. Marshall Thundering Herd (6-6, 6-5 ATS): Former MAC rivals square off in the Little Caesars Bowl on Saturday afternoon to kick off a triple-header of games. The Bobcats came up just short of what would’ve been an incredibly surprising MAC Championship. They’ll look to take down the Herd as three-point favorites, who are set to welcome in their new HC Doc Holliday for next season. The Little Caesars Bowl college football point spread features a ‘total’ of 49.

Meineke Car Care Bowl: North Carolina Tar Heels (8-4, 6-5 ATS) vs. Pittsburgh Panthers (9-3, 7-4 ATS): In one of the best undercard bowl games of the season, the Panthers and Tar Heels will get it on in what will amount to be a home game for UNC. Both teams are coming off of bad losses to end their regular seasons that clearly hurt their bowl berths. Carolina lost to its rivals from NC State, while Pittsburgh just narrowly missed out on a chance to win the Big East by losing by a point at home to the Bearcats. The college football point spread in this one features Pitt by a field goal, while the ‘total’ has been set at 44.5.

Emerald Bowl: Boston College Eagles (8-4, 6-5 ATS) vs. Southern California Trojans (8-4, 3-9 ATS): Two of college football’s traditional powers get together in the Emerald Bowl on Saturday night to wrap up the three-pack of games. Two freshman quarterbacks, BC’s David Shinskie and USC’s Matt Barkley, will be getting their first taste of the bowl season. These two teams haven’t met on the gridiron since 1988. Not many are giving the Eagles a chance of taking down the mighty Trojans, as BC has been set at +7.5. The ‘total’ at BetUS is 44.

Music City Bowl: Kentucky Wildcats (7-5, 6-6 ATS) vs. Clemson Tigers (8-5, 8-5 ATS): For the second time in the L/3 years, the Wildcats and Tigers will get together in Nashville for the Music City Bowl. This year, Clemson has to be bitterly disappointed with its bowl assignment. The Tigers came oh so close to going to the Orange Bowl as the ACC Champions, and was passed up by Florida State, Miami, and Virginia Tech for better bowl slots. HC Rich Brooks just has to be happy to have his UK squad bowling once again, even though this is its third trip in the L/4 years to this game. The Tigers are seven-point favorites, with the over/under being set at 52.

Free Pick: Los Angeles Clippers vs. Phoenix Suns: December 24th 2009

| December 24, 2009 | 0 Comments

suns clippers betting pickLos Angeles Clippers vs. Phoenix Suns
Free Pick: Phoenix -9.5 (December 24th 2009 – Dave Price)
Really think the Suns are primed and ready for a blowout here after enduring back-to-back home defeats – their first two home losses of the season. Last season, the Suns defeated the Clippers 140-100 at home as a 9-point favorite, and while I don’t see this one getting anywhere near that ugly, I do see a double digit margin of victory for Phoenix here. The Suns will be highly motivated after back-to-back defeats and they won’t take the Clippers lightly because they only won by 2 points in LA in the season’s first meeting. The biggest edge Phoenix has here is its 3-point shooting. In fact, the Clippers are just 1-10 ATS versus teams who attempt 18 or more 3 point shots/game on the season this season, losing these games by an average score of 88.5 to 100.4. Take the Suns.