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Free NBA Pick: Miami Heat vs. New Orleans Hornets: December 30th 2009

| December 30, 2009 | 0 Comments

heat vs. hornets handicappers pickMiami Heat vs. New Orleans Hornets
Free NBA Pick: New Orleans -1 (December 30th 2009 – Rob Vinciletti

On Wednesday the Free play in the NBA is on the NO. Hornets. Game 712 at 8:05 eastern. The Hornets qualify in a nice little system here tonight. What we want to do is play on home favorites of -4 or less with no rest if they were a road dog of 5 or more last night and scored 100 or more. If the opposition scored 100 or more as ahome favorite in their last game, these unrested home favorites have cashed over 80% of the time and win by an average 101-91 score. Miami is 0-9 ats vs the Hornets over the past few seasons. New Orleans is in one of their best team power angles as well tonight. They are a solid 14-1 straight up at home off a road game with no rest. Lay the small number here tonight. On Wednesday if you think this free play is strong I have a 6 unit Western Conference Game of the Year with a 17-0 system and 2 big Power Angles. In Bowl action I have a 5 unit Triple system play. All systems are hitting over 90% and the lead system at 97% long term. Those with me on Tuesday cashed big With Wisconsin. Tonight we do more damage. College hoops on late report. Take the Hornets tonight in the NBA. RV

Free Pick: Washington Wizards vs. Memphis Grizzlies: December 28th 2009

| December 28, 2009 | 0 Comments

wizards vs. grizzlies pickWashington Wizards vs. Memphis Grizzlies
Free Pick: Memphis -5 (December 28th 2009 – Rocky Atkinson)

Memphis is 10-2 SU and ATS at home vs Washington since 1996. Wizards are 19-42-3 ATS in their last 64 games playing on 1 days rest. Wizards are 7-16-1 ATS in their last 24 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Wizards are 6-14-2 ATS in their last 22 games as a road underdog of 5.0-10.5. Wizards are 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 vs. Western Conference. Wizards are 8-21 ATS in their last 29 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game. Wizards are 4-11-1 ATS in their last 16 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game. Wizards are 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 Monday games. Wizards are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points. Wizards are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 vs. NBA Southwest. Grizzlies are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5. Grizzlies are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall. Grizzlies are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games as a home favorite of 5.0-10.5. Grizzlies are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Grizzlies are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400. Grizzlies are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400. Grizzlies are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games playing on 1 days rest. Grizzlies are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS win. Grizzlies are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. Eastern Conference. Grizzlies are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. NBA Southeast. Grizzlies are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. Grizzlies are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games vs. a team with a losing SU record. Grizzlies are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games as a home favorite. Grizzlies are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 home games. Grizzlies are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game. Grizzlies are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games as a favorite. Home team is 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings. Favorite is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings. Wizards are 2-6 ATS in the last 8 meetings. Wizards are 0-4 ATS in the last 4 meetings in Memphis. We’ll recommend a small play on Memphis tonight! Thanks and good luck, Rocky

Free Pick: 2009 Music City Bowl – Kentucky vs. Clemson

| December 27, 2009 | 0 Comments

kentucky vs. clemson pickAs you look at this game from the perspective of the NCAA football bowl betting odds, you are looking for stars, you are going to find them on the Clemson team. Defensive ends Da’Quan Bowers and Ricky Sapp are standouts who will go high in the NFL Draft. DeAndre McDaniel is one of the best defensive backs in the country, and made eight interceptions on the season.

Wide receiver Jacoby Ford is a speedster who caught 53 passes for 735 yards this year. Yet the biggest star is running back CJ Spiller, the guy who should have won the Heisman Trophy. Spiller is simply the biggest game-breaker in the country, a guy who scored eleven touchdowns rushing, four more receiving and five more on kick returns, and ranked fourth in the country in all-purpose yards. His 233-yard rushing day against Georgia Tech in the ACC title game was a classic.

Here are some of the college football betting trends as they relate to this matchup:
•KY has won and covered five of its last seven games
•KY has played three of its last four games OVER the total
•CLEM has won six of its last eight games SU
•CLEM has played its last six games OVER the total

Yet Clemson lost that game, both straight-up and in the NCAA football betting odds, and that leads us to where our doubts about Clemson in this game are. We don’t question that this team has ability and playmakers, but after the surge the Tigers had toward the end of the season, during which time they won six straight games and averaged 40 points a game, it was a downer to lose to South Carolina in the big rivalry game. Another big loss was to Georgia Tech in the conference title game, which brought with it an invitation to the BCS. This is the kind of thing that might impact their performance in this game.

Clemson’s freshman quarterback, Kyle Parker, rebounded form a rough start to finish with 56% completions and 19 touchdowns. But he’ll be tested severely by the Kentucky secondary, which allowed opposing passer to complete just 48% of their throws, with 16 interceptions. Since the disastrous loss to Florida, where the Wildcats gave up 31 points in the first quarter, they have played better, and at one point, captured five of six, including straight-up wins at Georgia and Auburn. This is not a team that will roll over.

Kentucky has a pretty good two-fisted running attack, with go-to people in Derrick Locke (843 yards) and Randall “Not Tex” Cobb (537 yards), both of whom can also catch the ball out of the backfield. Cobb is the key guy in the Wildcats’ wildcat formation. Mike Hartline, who was the MVP of last year’s Liberty Bowl, has returned from injury, and he will provide a change of pace for an offense that also has the mobile Morgan Newton (55%, 5 TD’s) available at quarterback.

Kentucky is not a team that will overwhelm you with statistics, but they are very comfortable at this bowl, having appeared in Nashville three of the last four years, and coach Rich Brooks has basically said that they’ve got the drill down pat. Also, they are happy to be in the game, which maybe just as important when you’re talking about an underdog getting more than a TD.

We’re going with Kentucky, catching 7.5 points.
JAY’S PLAY: KENTUCKY +7.5 ***
(Graded on a scale of 1-4 stars)