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Free Pick: Washington Wizards vs. Memphis Grizzlies: December 28th 2009

| December 28, 2009 | 0 Comments

wizards vs. grizzlies pickWashington Wizards vs. Memphis Grizzlies
Free Pick: Memphis -5 (December 28th 2009 – Rocky Atkinson)

Memphis is 10-2 SU and ATS at home vs Washington since 1996. Wizards are 19-42-3 ATS in their last 64 games playing on 1 days rest. Wizards are 7-16-1 ATS in their last 24 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Wizards are 6-14-2 ATS in their last 22 games as a road underdog of 5.0-10.5. Wizards are 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 vs. Western Conference. Wizards are 8-21 ATS in their last 29 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game. Wizards are 4-11-1 ATS in their last 16 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game. Wizards are 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 Monday games. Wizards are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points. Wizards are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 vs. NBA Southwest. Grizzlies are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5. Grizzlies are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall. Grizzlies are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games as a home favorite of 5.0-10.5. Grizzlies are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Grizzlies are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400. Grizzlies are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400. Grizzlies are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games playing on 1 days rest. Grizzlies are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS win. Grizzlies are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. Eastern Conference. Grizzlies are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. NBA Southeast. Grizzlies are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. Grizzlies are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games vs. a team with a losing SU record. Grizzlies are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games as a home favorite. Grizzlies are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 home games. Grizzlies are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game. Grizzlies are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games as a favorite. Home team is 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings. Favorite is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings. Wizards are 2-6 ATS in the last 8 meetings. Wizards are 0-4 ATS in the last 4 meetings in Memphis. We’ll recommend a small play on Memphis tonight! Thanks and good luck, Rocky

Free Pick: 2009 Music City Bowl – Kentucky vs. Clemson

| December 27, 2009 | 0 Comments

kentucky vs. clemson pickAs you look at this game from the perspective of the NCAA football bowl betting odds, you are looking for stars, you are going to find them on the Clemson team. Defensive ends Da’Quan Bowers and Ricky Sapp are standouts who will go high in the NFL Draft. DeAndre McDaniel is one of the best defensive backs in the country, and made eight interceptions on the season.

Wide receiver Jacoby Ford is a speedster who caught 53 passes for 735 yards this year. Yet the biggest star is running back CJ Spiller, the guy who should have won the Heisman Trophy. Spiller is simply the biggest game-breaker in the country, a guy who scored eleven touchdowns rushing, four more receiving and five more on kick returns, and ranked fourth in the country in all-purpose yards. His 233-yard rushing day against Georgia Tech in the ACC title game was a classic.

Here are some of the college football betting trends as they relate to this matchup:
•KY has won and covered five of its last seven games
•KY has played three of its last four games OVER the total
•CLEM has won six of its last eight games SU
•CLEM has played its last six games OVER the total

Yet Clemson lost that game, both straight-up and in the NCAA football betting odds, and that leads us to where our doubts about Clemson in this game are. We don’t question that this team has ability and playmakers, but after the surge the Tigers had toward the end of the season, during which time they won six straight games and averaged 40 points a game, it was a downer to lose to South Carolina in the big rivalry game. Another big loss was to Georgia Tech in the conference title game, which brought with it an invitation to the BCS. This is the kind of thing that might impact their performance in this game.

Clemson’s freshman quarterback, Kyle Parker, rebounded form a rough start to finish with 56% completions and 19 touchdowns. But he’ll be tested severely by the Kentucky secondary, which allowed opposing passer to complete just 48% of their throws, with 16 interceptions. Since the disastrous loss to Florida, where the Wildcats gave up 31 points in the first quarter, they have played better, and at one point, captured five of six, including straight-up wins at Georgia and Auburn. This is not a team that will roll over.

Kentucky has a pretty good two-fisted running attack, with go-to people in Derrick Locke (843 yards) and Randall “Not Tex” Cobb (537 yards), both of whom can also catch the ball out of the backfield. Cobb is the key guy in the Wildcats’ wildcat formation. Mike Hartline, who was the MVP of last year’s Liberty Bowl, has returned from injury, and he will provide a change of pace for an offense that also has the mobile Morgan Newton (55%, 5 TD’s) available at quarterback.

Kentucky is not a team that will overwhelm you with statistics, but they are very comfortable at this bowl, having appeared in Nashville three of the last four years, and coach Rich Brooks has basically said that they’ve got the drill down pat. Also, they are happy to be in the game, which maybe just as important when you’re talking about an underdog getting more than a TD.

We’re going with Kentucky, catching 7.5 points.
(Graded on a scale of 1-4 stars)

Free Pick: Indianapolis Colts vs. New York Jets: December 27th 2009

| December 26, 2009 | 0 Comments

colts vs. jets free pickIndianapolis Colts vs. New York Jets
Free Pick: New York Jets +5.5 (December 27th 2009 – Matt Fargo)

The Colts snuck by yet again this past week, this time a four-point win over the Jaguars to move to 14-0 on the season. The starters played the entire game but once again there is the debate about whether or not those starters will play a full game again this week. I am playing this game as it the Colts starters will be in the entire game, or at least the majority of it, and if they come out early, that is only an added benefit to us. Colts Head Coach Jim Caldwell said Monday the team has not yet decided how long starters will play and he said he plans to play all players who are healthy, but he didn’t elaborate on just how long those healthy starters would play against the Jets and that alone tells us that they will likely be coming out before this game is over. We shall see. The Jets lost a brutal game at home against the Falcons on Sunday which severely hurt their playoff chances. Now they will have to defeat the lone remaining undefeated team in the league and then win at home against the Bengals next week who may still very well be playing for something also.

New York is tied with five other teams at 7-7 and winning out for any of them could mean nothing as they all trail both Baltimore and Denver by a game for those Wild Card playoff spots. Any losses by any of those teams means their playoff shots are done so the Jets obviously need to win this game. They have actually fared better on the road this season, going 4-3 and while this is the hardest test of all, it is one that can be passed. Indianapolis has been winning but it has been anything but impressive in my eyes. Over the last seven games, the Colts have actually been outgained in five of those and the other two saw yardage advantages by only 21 and 24 total yards. In total over this stretch, Indianapolis is -145 in yardage which is a big surprise for a team that is 7-0 over that span. Making matters worse is that they have been outrushed in eight straight games and that will play right into the gameplan of the Jets who are one of the best rushing teams in the NFL and they have a +271 rushing yardage differential over the last three games.

The overall Jets defense has been great recently and what better time to be playing good than against one of the best offenses in the NFL. New York has allowed only 8.0 ppg over the last four games and it has outgained all four opponents. If not for a late touchdown by the Falcons, the Jets would be on a 4-0 run heading into this game. The Jets also fall into a solid contrarian situation. Play against teams with a winning percentage greater than .750 after three consecutive covers as a favorite in the second half of the season. This situation is 23-7 ATS (76.7 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 3* New York Jets