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Baltimore Ravens vs. Green Bay Packers Week 11 NFL Pick from Teddy Covers: November 19th 2017

| November 19, 2017

Baltimore Ravens vs. Green Bay Packers
Week 11 NFL Pick: Baltimore -2 (November 19th 2017)

We’ve seen the Packers offense for three games without Aaron Rodgers now, and Green Bay hasn’t been able to move the football effectively in any of them.

Yes, the Packers were able to beat lowly Chicago by a TD last week –playing with a rookie QB in a game where Bears head coach John Fox literally gave away a touchdown with an ill-fated challenge.  But they gained only 5.3 yards per play for the afternoon, converted only one of their three red zone chances into touchdowns, and did not pass the ‘eye test’ any more than they did the previous week in a Monday Night Football home loss to the Lions.

To make matters worse for the Packers, the injury bug continues to bite Mike McCarthy’s squad.  Their offensive line is riddled with key losses once again, with Brian Bulaga placed on IR and three starters listed as questionable for Sunday.  They’ve got injuries all over the place on defense too, with Morgan Burnett, Nick Perry and Kevin King all questionable.

It doesn’t stop there either.  Packers running backs Ty Montgomery and Aaron Jones, who have kept the pressure off Brett Hundley, are both banged up as well, with Jones out until December.  And perhaps most importantly of all, Hundley hurt his hamstring last week.  For a mobile QB who is at his best when moving out of the pocket and throwing on the run, that is most assuredly an impact injury, especially against the Ravens stout defensive front.

Check out more week 11 NFL pick from our handicappers at

John Harbaugh’s teams have enjoyed great success off the bye.  The Ravens are 7-2 SU after bye weeks in the Harbaugh era, including 2-1 on the road. That includes a 4-0 SU record against teams that enter the game with a winning record, like they’ll face here against the 5-4 Packers.  Unlike Green Bay, Harbaugh’s squad is getting healthier; excellent news for a squad that was riddled with injuries right from the start of training camp.  His quote: “I feel like we are more full strength than we have been all year.”

The Ravens season long statistics stink, in large part due to all the early injuries they suffered.  Their 4.4 yards per play on offense, their -0.5 yards per play differential between offense and defense and Joe Flacco’s career worst 72.7 QB rating all look ugly for wiseguy bettors who peruse those stats closely.  That ensures we’re NOT going to see any kind of significant market support for Baltimore this week, despite the fact that they are the superior and healthier squad, rested and ready off their bye.  With Jeremy Maclin and Danny Woodhead both expected back on the field this week, those season long stats are more misleading than accurate for the Baltimore offense moving forward.  Take the Ravens.

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NCAAF Pick: Larry Ness betting USC -16 over UCLA on November 18th 2017

| November 17, 2017

UCLA Bruins vs. USC Trojans
College Football Point Spread Pick: USC -16 (November 18th 2017)

The 5-5 UCLA Bruins are at USC to take on the 9-2 Trojans and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side.

UCLA comes in off a 44-34 victory over Aizona State, while USC most recently posted a 38-24 road win over Colorado last weekend.

Note that when these team’s met last year, it was USC that scored the relatively simple 36-14 victory.

The Bruins looked terrible on the defensive side in their win over Arizona State last Saturday, giving up 584 total yards, including 290 through the air. With a much more “winnable” game at home against 5-5 Cal in their season finale, QB Josh Rosen and company could be caught looking ahead.

The Trojans didn’t look overly impressive defensively last week either, giving up 486 total yards. But the unit came up big when it had to, bending but not breaking with two key INT’s (note that the defense has three picks over the last two games.) USC QB Sam Darnold was 21 of 34 for 329 yards, two TD’s and no INT’s.

Another Perspective?: Check out Brandon Lee’s USC vs. UCLA pick here

I’ll point out that UCLA is just 1-8 ATS in its last nine off a win against a conference rival (including 0-2 ATS this year), while USC is 3-1 ATS in its last four after scoring 37 points or more in its previous outing.

This is an important game for both teams, but there’s no way that USC takes the foot off the gas at this point. I’m expecting a rout from start to finish. Consider the Trojans in this matchup.

Kentucky Wildcats vs. Georgia Bulldogs College Football Pick from Al McMordie: November 18th 2017

| November 17, 2017

Kentucky Wildcats vs. Georgia Bulldogs
College Football Pick: Georgia -21 (November 18th 2017)

At 3:30 pm, our complimentary selection is on the Georgia Bulldogs minus the points over Kentucky.  Last week, I was on the Auburn Tigers +3 over Georgia, here, on these pages, and was rewarded with a 23-point blowout win by the Tigers.  That was Georgia’s first loss this season after starting the year 9-0.  Now, people who have followed me over the years know that I like to go against College Football teams off their first defeat of the season when they started the year going 5-0 or better.  But I’m actually not going to go against the Bulldogs in this game, because I don’t believe they will have a letdown.  And it’s for several reasons.  First, this will be Georgia’s final home game of the season, so I feel the Bulldogs will be excited to get back on the field to play this game.

And College Football teams have gone 78% ATS if they lost their previous game by 20 or more points, and are now favored by more than 15 points in their final home game of the season.  Also, SEC teams off an upset loss are 70.9% ATS vs. .500 (or better) Conference foes off an upset win.  Finally, the Bulldogs are 68% ATS since 1991 at home off an upset defeat.  Lay the points with the Bulldogs.  Good luck, as always…Al McMordie.

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