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Houston Astros vs. Miami Marlins Betting Odds & Pick from Will Rogers: May 16th 2017

| May 16, 2017

Houston Astros vs. Miami Marlins
MLB Betting Pick: Houston -168 odds (May 16th 2017)
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The set-up: The Astros opened this four-game, home-and-home IL series with the Miami Marlins by taking Monday’s contest, 7-2. Yuli Gurriel led the way with a grand slam, Houston’s third in May, which sets a franchise record for one month. The 27-12 Astros own MLB’s best record, are now 13-6 on the road and have won each of their three interleague games. Meanwhile, the Marlins are headed in the opposite direction. After opening the season at 10-8, the Marlins have gone 4-15 since, and have not won consecutive games since April 22-23. Houston owns an eight-game lead in the AL West, while Miami occupies the basement in the NL East at 14-23. The Marlins are already 10 games back of the Nationals in the division and the team’s winning percentage of .378 is better than only San Diego, which is 15-25 (.375).

The pitching matchup: Dallas Keuchel (6-0 & 1.69 ERA) takes the mound for Houston and Tom Koehler (1-1 & 5.60 ERA) for Miami. Keuchel will try to become MLB’s first seven-game winner, after he beat the Yankees 3-2 last Thursday. It was his shortest outing of the year (six innings) but he tied a season high with nine strikeouts and walked only one. He is tied for the MLB lead in innings pitched (58 2/3) and his ERA is third overall among qualified hurlers. The 2015 American League Cy Young Award winner allowed two unearned runs over seven innings in his only previous start against Miami, a game in which he took the loss. Koehler has finished as many as six innings only twice in his first seven starts of 2017 and has fallen shy of that mark three straight times, including a no-decision against St. Louis on Wednesday in which he gave up four runs in 5 1/3 innings. He threw a season-high 99 pitches in that outing but for the first time in 2017, didn’t allow a HR. He has won his only prior start against the Astros, although his ERA in that game was 5.40!

The pick: Houston is 15 games over .500 for the first time since the end of the 2005 season (89-73) and Keuchel has regained his 2015 Cy Young form. As noted above, the Marlins are in a 4-15 funk which includes a 1-6 mark on their current homestand. Throw in that Miami is 8-20 in interleague play since the beginning of 2016 and what’s NOT to like about the Astros.

Baseball Pick: Rockies vs. Dodgers MLB Betting Odds & Prediction from Jimmy Boyd: May 14th 2017

| May 14, 2017

Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
MLB Betting Prediction: Rockies +118 odds (May 14th 2017)
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I like the value here with Colorado as a home dog against the Dodgers. The Rockies are going to be motivated here to salvage a split in the finale of this 4-game series against LA and I like their chances of doing just that. Colorado will send out Antonio Senzatela, who has been a big surprise early on. Senzatela is 5-1 with a 2.86 ERA and 1.068 WHIP in 7 starts (6-1 team record) and has pitched well at Coors Field, which is no easy task. The Dodgers will counter with Julio Urias, who has a sensational 1.06 ERA in 3 starts, but will be making his first ever start at Coors Field and I look for him to struggle in this one. LA is just 1-4 dating back to last season in Urias’ last 5 road starts against a team with a winning record and the Rockies are 9-3 in their last 12 home games against a left-handed starter and 10-2 in their last 12 after being held to 2 runs or less in their previous game. Take Colorado!

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Baltimore Orioles vs. Kansas City Royals MLB Over-Under Betting Pick & Odds from Mike Lundin: May 13th 2017

| May 13, 2017

Baltimore Orioles vs. Kansas City Royals
MLB Over-Under Pick: Under 8.5 runs -110 odds (May 13th 2017)
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The Kansas City Royals are dead last in the MLB with only 106 runs scored through 35 games. They won Friday’s matchup with the Baltimore Orioles 3-2, and I think we’ll see another low-scoring contest Saturday night.

The Royals’ Nathan Karns (2-2, 4.58 ERA) has allowed just one run on five hits through 12 innings of work home at Kauffman Stadium this season. He’s struck out 17 through 12 1/3 frames while allowing just a pair of runs on seven hits in his last two starts overall.

The Orioles hand the ball to Chris Tillman (1-0, 0.00 ERA) who will make his second start of the year. He missed the first five weeks of the regular season with a shoulder injury but worked five shutout innings against the White Sox to earn a win in his season debut on Sunday.

Under is 8-1 in Tillmans last nine road starts. Under is 6-1 in Royals last seven home games. Under is 10-4-2 in the last 16 meetings in Kansas City.

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New York Mets vs. Milwaukee Brewers MLB Betting Odds & Pick from Teddy Covers: May 12th 2017

| May 12, 2017

New York Mets vs. Milwaukee Brewers
MLB Betting Pick: Milwaukee -103 odds (May 12th 2017)
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It’s not hard to make a case for betting against Matt Harvey and the Mets right now.  Let’s start with Harvey!  You all know the headlines already — Harvey getting drunk and going on a bender instead of showing up at the ballpark last week after his ex-girlfriend went on a date with the Patriots Julian Edelman, resulting in a team suspension and plenty of New York media hype.

But what hasn’t made as many headlines is the fact that Matt Harvey is not the same pitcher he was two years ago, not even close.  Since throwing a gem against the light hitting Braves in his 2017 debut, the Mets are 1-4 in Harvey’s subsequent five trips to the hill.  His 5.14 ERA is no aberration, considering his 5.76 FIP. Many of his advanced metric stats are down compared to his career numbers, like strikeouts and swinging strike percentage, while his walk rate has gone up significantly.

So, we’re talking about a guy still being priced like a former ace, coming off a ten day layoff, enmeshed in an off-field personal crisis  Behind him, the Mets are truly riddled with injuries.  Big bats David Wright, Travis D’Arnaud, Yoenis Cespedes and Lucas Duda are all on the DL.  So is closer Jeurys Familia, leaving a struggling bullpen without their ‘go-to’ guy in the ninth inning.  And two more key bats, both of whom have hit well of late – Michael Conforto and Asdrubal Cabrera — are both very questionable today, each dealing with a nagging ailment.

All of this is bad news against Matt Garza and the Brewers lineup. Garza has gotten off to an excellent start, coming off back-2-back gems in his last two outings, striking out ten without walking a single batter in a pair of Milwaukee victories.  Milwaukee just pounded out 19 runs in their just concluded three game set against the Red Sox, a hot lineup right now.  Although Ryan Braun has been downgraded to doubtful, the Brewers should get the majors leading home run hitter, Marcus Thames, back in the lineup following a routine day off yesterday.  Take the Brewers.

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