MLB Picks: September 7th 2011
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Pick: Atlanta Braves +122
Off back-to-back losses, I like the Atlanta Braves to bounce back in a big way Wednesday against the NL East-leading Philadelphia Phillies. Atlanta has not lost three straight games since 7/31-8/2, so this has been a very resilient bunch. The Braves have the edge on the mound tonight with Brandon Beachy over Roy Oswalt. Beachy is 7-2 with a 3.37 ERA and 1.155 WHIP in 21 starts this season, striking out a whopping 135 batters in 120 1/3 innings. Oswalt has been the weak link on Philly’s staff in 2011. The veteran righty is 7-8 with a 3.80 ERA and 1.409 WHIP in 19 starts, striking out only 69 batters in 104 1/3 innings. He just hasn’t been quite right all season as he deals with various injuries. Oswalt is 3-3 with a 4.70 ERA and 1.451 WHIP in 12 career starts against Atlanta. Atlanta is 19-5 after 2 or more consecutive losses this season. The Braves are a very profitable 15-8 as a road underdog of +100 to +150 this season. The Braves are a perfect 8-0 in their last 8 games after losing the first 2 games of a series. The Phillies are 0-6 in Oswalt’s last 6 starts vs. a team with a winning record. Bet Atlanta Wednesday. -Jack Jones

Pick: San Francisco Giants -138
On Wednesday The Free MLB System play is on the SF. Giants. Game 951 at 6:35 eastern. The Giants fit a nice system here tonight that plays on road favorites with a total of 8 or less off a road favored win by 2 or more runs with a total that was 8 or less, if they scored 5+ runs and had 10+ hits and 5+ men left on base, vs an opponent off a home dog loss of 2 or more scored 4 or less runs with 5+ men left on base and no more than 1 error. This long winded system has cashed 16 of 19 times. The Giants have won 15 of 21 on Wednesday their best day of the week. The Padres have lost 4 of 5 as a home dog in this range and are hitting just .217 the past week. They have lost 17 of 24 in the second half vs Winning teams. The Giants have won 6 of 8 here this season and have M. Cain on the mound. Cain has a superb 2.81 road era which trumps the 3.79 home era of Pare starter A. Harang. Look for the Giants to get the win. On Wednesday the 3 game power Pack will get you over the hump led by the NL Total of the Month from a 100% Totals system + 14-1, and 16-2 system plays. All games are evening plays. Tuesday bases swept the board. Jump on and be on the giving end of Hump day. For the free play take the Giants. -Rob Vinciletti

Pick: Chicago White Sox -128
The Twins are pure fade material right now as they have more or less packed it in. They are just 16-36 in their last 52 overall and 6-22 in their last 28 home games. The White Sox, meanwhile, are 14-6 in their last 20 road games, and they have especially been dangerous in the road chalk. The Sox are 10-1 in their last 11 games as a road favorite and 9-0 in their last 9 games as a road favorite of -110 to -150. Chicago is 8-1 in Danks’ last 9 starts as a favorite and 4-0 in his last 4 starts as a favorite of -110 to -150. The Twins, meanwhile, are 0-4 in Pavano’s last 4 home starts and 1-6 in his last 7 starts as a home underdog. The White Sox are 8-1 in the last 9 meetings in this series and 6-0 in the last 6 meetings in Minnesota. Take the South Siders. -Jimmy Boyd (Handicapperspicks.com)

MLB Picks: August 31st 2011
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Pick: Atlanta Braves -160
On Wednesday the Free MLB System play is on the Atlanta Braves. Game 908 at 7;10 eastern. The Braves fit a nice system here that has cashed 14 of 16 times. The lines a bit high to jump it to unit rated status, so its the free play tonight. We want to play on home favorites of -140 or higher off a home favored loss by 5 or more runs if they scored 2 or less runs and had 5+ men left on base, vs an opponent off a road dog win by 5 or more runs with 4 or less men left on base. The Nationals are 4-13 as a road dog in this range and just snapped a 6 game losing streak, even with last nights win they are still scoring under 3 runs per game the past week. The Pitching is pretty even with Lannan having a 4.26 road era vs Lowe with a 4.60 home era. Low has won 7 of 10 starts in divisional play the Braves have the Better pen. Look for Atlanta to bounce back and get the win. On Wednesday the lead Top plays are from a rare 100% MLB power system and a 15-1 Dominator System. Jump on and be on the giving end of Hump day. For the free Play take the Braves. -Rob Vinciletti

Pick: Detroit Tigers -152
10* Play on Detroit at 1:05 ET. The Tigers roared back to defeat KC last night 2-1 here at Comerica Park and I like their chances to make it two straight this afternoon w/ Rick Porcello on the mound. Given the Royals struggles on the road this year, I feel this line is way too low. Kansas City is just 23-43 away from home this season and starter Paulino has a terrible TSR of 13-33 since the beginning of last season. That includes a 9-26 TSR as an underdog and as a team the Royals are just 18-41 this year in the +125 to +175 price range. Detroit is 60-32 their last 92 home day games and Porcello has a 12-3 TSR when the money line is -100 to -150. 10* on Detroit (w/ Porcello). -Tom Freese (Handicapperspicks.com)

MLB Picks: August 17th 2011
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Pick: Chicago White Sox -150
The Chicago White Sox are one of the hottest teams in baseball right now. I’ll continue backing them Wednesday as they host the Cleveland Indians. Chicago has gone 9-2 in their last 11 games overall to get to 61-60 on the season, just 3.5 games back of Detroit and a half-game behind Cleveland in the AL Central. Now they send their hottest starter to the mound Wednesday looking to continue this roll. Mark Buehrle (10-5, 3.06 ERA) has allowed three runs or fewer in 18 straight starts, matching the club record set by Frank Smith in 1909. Since losing to Minnesota on June 16, Buehrle is 4-0 with a 2.02 ERA in nine starts with the White Sox winning eight times. Fausto Carmona (5-12, 5.12 ERA) has the majors’ third-worst ERA among qualifying pitchers and the White Sox have had a lot to do with that, touching him up for 18 runs in eight innings. The right-hander was pounded for a career-worst 10 runs in three innings on opening day, and was tagged for eight runs in five innings in an 8-2 loss at U.S. Cellular Field on May 19. Buehrle is a perfect 9-0 against the money line as a home favorite of -125 to -150 over the last 2 seasons. Bet the White Sox Wednesday. -Jack Jones

Pick: Florida Marlins +115
Florida is 31-18 last 3 years and 13-6 this year as a road underdog of +100 to +125. Colorado has lost 5 of their last 7 games. Florida has a winning record on the road going 33-26 so far this year. Florida bullpen has a 3.34 ERA in all games this year. Ricky Nolasco is 9-8 with a 3.72 ERA overall this year, 6-4 with a 3.66 ERA on the road this season and 2-1 with a super 1.66 ERA his last 3 starts. Aaron Cook is 2-7 with a 5.42 ERA overall this year, 0-4 with a 4.36 ERA at home this season and 0-2 with a 6.61 ERA his last 3 starts. Nolasco is 5-0 with a 2.13 ERA overall vs Colorado since 1997. We’ll recommend a small play on Florida tonight! Thanks and good luck, Rocky Atkinson

Pick: Giants vs. Braves Over 7
The Over is the play here as Atlanta has several hitters with solid career numbers versus the Giant’s Matt Cain. Cain has struggled with Bourn and Jones for the Braves, and McCann has 3 RBIs in only 12 ABs. Jair Jurrjens has struggled since the All Star break and is coming off a stint off the DL. I look for one of these pitchers to struggle early in the game and for this to be comfortably over the total by the 5th inning. The Over is 8-2 in the Giant’s last 10 games as a road underdog, 10-1-1 in the Braves’ last 12 home games versus a team with a losing road record, and 6-1 in Jurrjens last 7 starts versus the NL West. -Patrick Webb (Handicapperspicks.com)

MLB Picks: August 16th 2011
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Pick: Atlanta Braves -140
The reigning MLB champs are struggling. They have lost 12 of their last 17 and haven’t had an answer for Atlanta all year. The Braves, winners of 8 of their last 11, are a perfect 4-0 against the Giants this year and have won 6 straight regular-season games in the series dating back to last season. It’s unlikely the struggling Jonathan Sanchez will bring this skid to an end. The southpaw is 0-4 with a 6.14 ERA in his last six starts and 1-3 with a 5.63 ERA in eight games (six starts) versus the Braves. A Giants’ club only batting .239 on the road will have a tough time breaking out of its offensive funk against Randall Delgado, a pitcher they have never faced. We’ll back the Braves in this one. -Jimmy Boyd

Pick: Detroit Tigers -1.5 -122
Detroit is 20-2 all-time at home with Verlander on the mound against clubs winning just 38% to 46% of their games. The Tigers have won these contests by an average score of 7.2 to 3.7. Minnesota is 3-19 all-time on the road with Blackburn on the bump against a team with a winning record. The Twins have lost these games by an average score of 6.8 to 3.8. We’ll take the Tigers on the run line. -Dave Price

Pick: Toronto Blue Jays -104
The Red Sox and Yankees get all the hype in the AL East, but Toronto has a good team, competitive on the road and an offense that is 6th in baseball in runs and slugging. The Blue Jays are 17-8 in their last 25 vs. a team with a losing record. Toronto goes with lefty starter and the Mariners are 9-24 in their last 33 overall and 15-42 in their last 57 games vs. a left-handed starter. Seattle righty Jason Vargas is hittable and the Blue Jays have pounded him this season for a 5.59 ERA, as well as 4.96 ERA in his career, allowing 24 base runners in 16 innings. And the Mariners are 2-10 in Vargas’ last 12 starts vs. the American League East. Play the Blue Jays! -Jim Fiest (Handicapperspicks.com)

MLB Picks: August 5th 2011
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Pick: Cardinals vs. Marlins Under 8.5
Yesterday’s series opener finished above the total. However, I feel this one has an excellent shot at being lower-scoring. Sanchez hasn’t had any victories in some time. He’s still 3-1 with a solid 3.50 ERA and 1.139 WHIP in 11 home starts though. Two of his last three starts have fallen below the total. Westbrook has been tough lately. He’s got a 3.15 ERA and 0.95 WHIP his last three starts, averaging 6 2/3 innings. Two of those three games stayed below the total and the other could have easily done so too. Westbrook has a 2.95 ERA and 0.891 WHIP his three starts vs. Florida. Likewise, Sanchez has a 2.95 ERA in three starts vs. St. Louis. Consider the Under 8.5 runs. -Ben Burns

Pick: San Diego Padres +128
San Diego is close to a .500 road team and the Padres are 6-1 in Aaron Harang’s last 7 road starts. The veteran righty (9-3) has been a very good pickup and faces a Pittsburgh offense that is 26th in runs, OBP and slugging. The Pirates go with righty Jeff Karstens, a guy who has had troubles against the Padres, with an 0-3 record and a 5.89 ERA against them. That includes one start this season where he struggled against them (6.75 ERA). And the Pirates are 5-13 in Karstens’ last 18 starts with 4 days of rest. Play the Padres. -Jim Feist

Pick: Atlanta Braves -122
We’ll fade the Mets with Dickey on the mound tonight as he’s just 1-6 with an ERA of 4.24 in 11 home starts this year. Atlanta’s Hudson enters in top form. He’s gone 10-straight starts without giving up more than 3 earned runs. The Braves are a phenomenal 11-4 in their last 15 games as a favorite of -110 to -150 and 18-8 in Hudson’s last 26 starts as a favorite of -110 to -150. The Mets have lost 4 in a row and are just 7-17 in their last 24 home games versus a team with a winning record. We’ll bet the Braves tonight. -Jimmy Boyd (Handicapperspicks.com)

MLB Picks: July 27th 2011
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Pick: Pirates vs. Braves Under 7
We look for a pitcher’s duel tonight between the Pittsburgh Pirates and Atlanta Braves. Clearly, both teams are tired after last night’s 19-inning marathon. That gives the edge to the starting pitchers in this one as the positional players will have a hard time focusing at the plate. Plus, we have two excellent starters going at it tonight. Jair Jurrjens is 12-3 with a 2.44 ERA in 18 starts for Atlanta, while Paul Maholm is 6-10 with a 3.26 ERA in 21 starts for Pittsburgh. The UNDER is 14-6-1 in Maholm’s 21 starts this year. These two have also been dominant when facing their respective opponents. Jurrjens is 2-3 with a 2.35 ERA in five lifetime starts (Under 4-1) versus Pittsburgh, while Maholm is 1-1 with a 1.64 ERA in five lifetime starts (Under 5-0) versus Atlanta. Take the UNDER 7 runs in this one. -Black Widow

Pick: Mets vs. Reds Over 9.5
The Mets Bobby Pelfrey hasn’t been missing many bats with his 5.29 ERA over his last three starts. The NYM is 15-4 to the high in L19 as a RD of 25-50 cents. Bronson Arroyo is 1-2 with a 7.36 ERA over his L5 starts and the Reds 12-5 to the over as HFs at this price. Play the over and don’t blink. -Dennis Macklin

Pick: Cincinnati Reds -138
Play on Cincinnati at 7:10 ET. After losing 2 straight here at home to the Mets, look for the Reds to win tonight. They are 31-21 off a loss this season and 32-19 off BB losses the L2 seasons. The Mets are 13-33 in road games when off back to back wins by 2 runs or less. NY starter Pelfrey has a 3-9 TSR as an underdog this year. Cincinnati starter Arroyo has a 7-3 TSR if the team lost its last game. 10* on Cincinnati. -Tom Freese (Handicapperspicks.com)