Atlanta Braves vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Prediction & Odds: April 25th 2012

April 25, 2012 By

Atlanta Braves vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Prediction: Dodgers -111 odds (April 25th 2012)
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Wednesday’s theme is all about teams and players off to fast starts as we have a total of 12 pitchers going on Wednesday with ERA’s under 3.00 through their first few starts. Our key game is where the Braves face the Dodgers. Both are out of the gate fast as both probable starting pitchers combine for an ERA under 1.00, but I”m going with the classy veteran in Ted Lilly despite having to face a Braves line up that’s 6th in OPS vs. LHP and I’ll tell you why.

Dodgers -110 (1.1* FREE PLAY)
First of all I believe the Braves are about to come back to life with their bats as they now face a lefty they have had real troubles with as Ted Lilly posts a 0.45 ERA over his last 3 starts in the last three years. Lilly off to a fast start so far posting a 0.69 ERA over his first two starts. Atlanta hitters have 112 combined at bats off Lilly and have only managed a .205 average and a .594 OPS in those at bats. Lilly will get a night start which he’s enjoyed far better than day starts at Dodger Stadium. Last year he had a 3.29 ERA in his 23 night starts.

On the other side we have Brandon Beachy who has posted an amazing 0.47 ERA, but he’s been largely lucky with a .207 BABIP and his xFIP of 3.87 suggests that ERA should be coming back to the norm here soon. Beachy was solid on the road but the Dodgers are ranked 9th with a .754 OPS vs. RHP and they are scoring more than 5.5 runs per 9 at home this year. I also like the Dodgers bullpen at home over the Braves right now as the Braves bullpen has been average thus far and have yet proved they can be the same group that was so good a year ago. I like the Dodgers as the Braves slow down from their fast start.

Notable Hot Starters:
Lance Lynn (1.42 ERA in 3GS PIT/CHC/MIL)
Cole Hamels (2.95 ERA in 3GS SD/MIA/NYM)
Trevor Cahil (2.84 ERA in 3GS ATL/COL/SD)
Jordan Zimmerman (1.29 ERA in 3GS CHC/CIN/HOU)
Kyle Drabek (2.00 ERA in 3GS KC/BAL/BOS)
Jason Hammel (2.37 ERA in 3GS CHW/TOR/MIN)
Mark Buehlre (2.66 ERA in 3GS CHC/PHI/CIN)
Barry Zito (1.171 ERA in 3GS NYM/PIT/COL)
Bronson Arroryo (2.91 ERA in 3GS STL/WSH/MIA)
C.J. Wilson (2.37 ERA in 3GS OAK/MIN/NYY)
Brandon Beachy (0.47 ERA in 3GS AZ/MIL/HOU)

Cold Starter Of The Day:
Cold starter with the best chance to win in my opinion has to be Clay Bucholz who has been awful thus far posting a 9.00 ERA. Again he looked great in Spring Training and it’s not like the Red Sox are struggling to score runs. Bucholz will face off against the Twins who he has a 1.38 ERA over 2 starts in the last 3 years. Speaking of the last 3 years combined he posts a 2.94 ERA in 31 road starts. He also goes up against Liam Hendricks who had an ERA over 6 in limited starts a year ago. Either way the Twins struggle to score runs and the Red Sox offense is still ranked in the Top 5 in the major leagues.

Notable Cold Starters:
Juan Nicasio (6.19 ERA in 3GS AZ/HOU/SD)
Chris Volstad (6.19 ERA in 3GS CIN/MIL/STL)
Luke Hochevar (5.87 ERA in 3GS TOR/CLE/LAA)
R.A. Dickey (5.71 ERA in 3GS ATL 2* /PHI)
PhIL hUGHES (6.75 era IN 3gs (MIN/LAA/TB)
-Courtesy of Freddy Wills

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MLB Picks: Wager on the Atlanta Braves and New York Mets: April 24th 2012

April 24, 2012 By

MLB Picks: April 24th 2012
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MLB Pick: Atlanta Braves -113
On Tuesday the free MLB System Play is on the Atlanta Braves. Game 965 at 10:10 eastern. The Dodgers fit a system that has won 11 of 13 times by playing against certain home teams off a home win by 5 or more runs if they had 10 or more hits with 4 or less men left on base, and are playing a road team off a 5 or more run road loss and scored 2 or less runs on 5+ hits. The Braves are 7-3 vs winning teams while the Dodgers have been beating up on teams that are below .500. Atlanta has won 8 of in night games and are averaging 6.5 runs the past week. The Dodgers in contrast are averaging 3.7 runs over that same span. Atlanta has Minor making the start and he has better current form than Harang for the Dodgers. Minor has a 3.10 era in his starts this season compared to 5.40 for Harang. Minor has won start vs the The Dodgers, a gem last season going 6 innings allowing just 1 run. Harang allowed 8 earned runs in 6 innings in a home start vs Atlanta last season. Look for The Braves to even the series here tonight. On Tuesday there are 4 Big plays up. 2 in the NBA Featuring the 15-0 Non conference game of the Month and a 17-2 totals system. In MLB we look to keep the 9-2 run going with a 15-1 Diamond Cutter Blowout System and a rare dog system that has 10 of 12 times and averages 7 runs per game for dogs who qualify. Jump on and cash out for Tuesday. For the free play take the Atlanta Braves. -Rob Vinciletti

MLB Pick: New York Mets +106
The Mets are showing some solid value as a home underdog tonight. New York will send out Johan Santana against Josh Johnson. Santana had a rough outing his last time out, but that start came on the road. Santana has been brilliant in his two starts at home, allowing just 1 run on seven hits over 10 innings of work. Santana is 6-1 with a 1.47 ERA and 0.946 WHIP in nine career starts against the Marlins. Johnson appears to be getting a lot of respect based off what he has done in the past, but he has really struggled in 2012. Johnson is 0-2 with 5.94 ERA and 2.040 WHIP. A big sign that he is not in top form is the fact that he has just 8 strike outs over 16.7 innings of work. The Marlins are just 2-10 against the money line when Johnson starts on the road with a money line of -100 to -150 over the last 2 seasons. BET THE METS! -Steve Janus

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MLB Picks for September 7th 2011: Bet The Braves, Giants And White Sox

September 7, 2011 By

MLB Picks: September 7th 2011
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Pick: Atlanta Braves +122
Off back-to-back losses, I like the Atlanta Braves to bounce back in a big way Wednesday against the NL East-leading Philadelphia Phillies. Atlanta has not lost three straight games since 7/31-8/2, so this has been a very resilient bunch. The Braves have the edge on the mound tonight with Brandon Beachy over Roy Oswalt. Beachy is 7-2 with a 3.37 ERA and 1.155 WHIP in 21 starts this season, striking out a whopping 135 batters in 120 1/3 innings. Oswalt has been the weak link on Philly’s staff in 2011. The veteran righty is 7-8 with a 3.80 ERA and 1.409 WHIP in 19 starts, striking out only 69 batters in 104 1/3 innings. He just hasn’t been quite right all season as he deals with various injuries. Oswalt is 3-3 with a 4.70 ERA and 1.451 WHIP in 12 career starts against Atlanta. Atlanta is 19-5 after 2 or more consecutive losses this season. The Braves are a very profitable 15-8 as a road underdog of +100 to +150 this season. The Braves are a perfect 8-0 in their last 8 games after losing the first 2 games of a series. The Phillies are 0-6 in Oswalt’s last 6 starts vs. a team with a winning record. Bet Atlanta Wednesday. -Jack Jones

Pick: San Francisco Giants -138
On Wednesday The Free MLB System play is on the SF. Giants. Game 951 at 6:35 eastern. The Giants fit a nice system here tonight that plays on road favorites with a total of 8 or less off a road favored win by 2 or more runs with a total that was 8 or less, if they scored 5+ runs and had 10+ hits and 5+ men left on base, vs an opponent off a home dog loss of 2 or more scored 4 or less runs with 5+ men left on base and no more than 1 error. This long winded system has cashed 16 of 19 times. The Giants have won 15 of 21 on Wednesday their best day of the week. The Padres have lost 4 of 5 as a home dog in this range and are hitting just .217 the past week. They have lost 17 of 24 in the second half vs Winning teams. The Giants have won 6 of 8 here this season and have M. Cain on the mound. Cain has a superb 2.81 road era which trumps the 3.79 home era of Pare starter A. Harang. Look for the Giants to get the win. On Wednesday the 3 game power Pack will get you over the hump led by the NL Total of the Month from a 100% Totals system + 14-1, and 16-2 system plays. All games are evening plays. Tuesday bases swept the board. Jump on and be on the giving end of Hump day. For the free play take the Giants. -Rob Vinciletti

Pick: Chicago White Sox -128
The Twins are pure fade material right now as they have more or less packed it in. They are just 16-36 in their last 52 overall and 6-22 in their last 28 home games. The White Sox, meanwhile, are 14-6 in their last 20 road games, and they have especially been dangerous in the road chalk. The Sox are 10-1 in their last 11 games as a road favorite and 9-0 in their last 9 games as a road favorite of -110 to -150. Chicago is 8-1 in Danks’ last 9 starts as a favorite and 4-0 in his last 4 starts as a favorite of -110 to -150. The Twins, meanwhile, are 0-4 in Pavano’s last 4 home starts and 1-6 in his last 7 starts as a home underdog. The White Sox are 8-1 in the last 9 meetings in this series and 6-0 in the last 6 meetings in Minnesota. Take the South Siders. -Jimmy Boyd (Handicapperspicks.com)

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MLB Picks for August 31st 2011: Wager On The Atlanta Braves And Detroit Tigers

August 31, 2011 By

MLB Picks: August 31st 2011
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Pick: Atlanta Braves -160
On Wednesday the Free MLB System play is on the Atlanta Braves. Game 908 at 7;10 eastern. The Braves fit a nice system here that has cashed 14 of 16 times. The lines a bit high to jump it to unit rated status, so its the free play tonight. We want to play on home favorites of -140 or higher off a home favored loss by 5 or more runs if they scored 2 or less runs and had 5+ men left on base, vs an opponent off a road dog win by 5 or more runs with 4 or less men left on base. The Nationals are 4-13 as a road dog in this range and just snapped a 6 game losing streak, even with last nights win they are still scoring under 3 runs per game the past week. The Pitching is pretty even with Lannan having a 4.26 road era vs Lowe with a 4.60 home era. Low has won 7 of 10 starts in divisional play the Braves have the Better pen. Look for Atlanta to bounce back and get the win. On Wednesday the lead Top plays are from a rare 100% MLB power system and a 15-1 Dominator System. Jump on and be on the giving end of Hump day. For the free Play take the Braves. -Rob Vinciletti

Pick: Detroit Tigers -152
10* Play on Detroit at 1:05 ET. The Tigers roared back to defeat KC last night 2-1 here at Comerica Park and I like their chances to make it two straight this afternoon w/ Rick Porcello on the mound. Given the Royals struggles on the road this year, I feel this line is way too low. Kansas City is just 23-43 away from home this season and starter Paulino has a terrible TSR of 13-33 since the beginning of last season. That includes a 9-26 TSR as an underdog and as a team the Royals are just 18-41 this year in the +125 to +175 price range. Detroit is 60-32 their last 92 home day games and Porcello has a 12-3 TSR when the money line is -100 to -150. 10* on Detroit (w/ Porcello). -Tom Freese (Handicapperspicks.com)

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MLB Picks for August 17th 2011: Wager On The White Sox And Marlins

August 17, 2011 By

MLB Picks: August 17th 2011
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Pick: Chicago White Sox -150
The Chicago White Sox are one of the hottest teams in baseball right now. I’ll continue backing them Wednesday as they host the Cleveland Indians. Chicago has gone 9-2 in their last 11 games overall to get to 61-60 on the season, just 3.5 games back of Detroit and a half-game behind Cleveland in the AL Central. Now they send their hottest starter to the mound Wednesday looking to continue this roll. Mark Buehrle (10-5, 3.06 ERA) has allowed three runs or fewer in 18 straight starts, matching the club record set by Frank Smith in 1909. Since losing to Minnesota on June 16, Buehrle is 4-0 with a 2.02 ERA in nine starts with the White Sox winning eight times. Fausto Carmona (5-12, 5.12 ERA) has the majors’ third-worst ERA among qualifying pitchers and the White Sox have had a lot to do with that, touching him up for 18 runs in eight innings. The right-hander was pounded for a career-worst 10 runs in three innings on opening day, and was tagged for eight runs in five innings in an 8-2 loss at U.S. Cellular Field on May 19. Buehrle is a perfect 9-0 against the money line as a home favorite of -125 to -150 over the last 2 seasons. Bet the White Sox Wednesday. -Jack Jones

Pick: Florida Marlins +115
Florida is 31-18 last 3 years and 13-6 this year as a road underdog of +100 to +125. Colorado has lost 5 of their last 7 games. Florida has a winning record on the road going 33-26 so far this year. Florida bullpen has a 3.34 ERA in all games this year. Ricky Nolasco is 9-8 with a 3.72 ERA overall this year, 6-4 with a 3.66 ERA on the road this season and 2-1 with a super 1.66 ERA his last 3 starts. Aaron Cook is 2-7 with a 5.42 ERA overall this year, 0-4 with a 4.36 ERA at home this season and 0-2 with a 6.61 ERA his last 3 starts. Nolasco is 5-0 with a 2.13 ERA overall vs Colorado since 1997. We’ll recommend a small play on Florida tonight! Thanks and good luck, Rocky Atkinson

Pick: Giants vs. Braves Over 7
The Over is the play here as Atlanta has several hitters with solid career numbers versus the Giant’s Matt Cain. Cain has struggled with Bourn and Jones for the Braves, and McCann has 3 RBIs in only 12 ABs. Jair Jurrjens has struggled since the All Star break and is coming off a stint off the DL. I look for one of these pitchers to struggle early in the game and for this to be comfortably over the total by the 5th inning. The Over is 8-2 in the Giant’s last 10 games as a road underdog, 10-1-1 in the Braves’ last 12 home games versus a team with a losing road record, and 6-1 in Jurrjens last 7 starts versus the NL West. -Patrick Webb (Handicapperspicks.com)

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