MLB Baseball Picks: July 17th 2011
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Pick: San Diego Padres -112
I won with the Padres yesterday, as they snapped their losing streak in convincing (11-2) fashion. Today’s game doesn’t figure to be that “easy” but I feel they’ve got a solid shot at another victory. I’m a “Cain fan” and am well aware of how capable he is. However, he’s struggled his last couple of starts against the Padres, who just saw him less than two weeks ago. Cain gave up five runs in that game, taking a 5-3 loss. His previous start against San Diego came last October and he got rocked for six runs in four innings in that one. While he doesn’t have a big name like Cain, Latos is also tough. He’s got a 2.37 ERA and 0.921 WHIP vs, the Giants, who haven’t seen him last season. He’s got a solid 3.26 ERA and 1.19 WHIP his last three starts, most recently suffering a tough 1-0 loss. He allowed just five hits and one run in 7 1/3 innings of that one, so it was hardly his fault. The Giants have a much better record than the Padres overall and have been MUCH better when playing at night. However, a closer look reveals that the Padres have actually been the better team during the afternoon. In fact, the Giants are a money-burning 14-19 (-7.2) in day games while the Padres have quietly gone a highly profitable 20-14 (+10.4). Consider San Diego. -Ben Burns

Pick: Boston Red Sox -138
I’ll side with the Boston Red Sox Sunday night due to the huge edge they have on the mound. Josh Beckett is 8-3 with a 2.27 ERA and 0.946 WHIP in 17 starts this season for the Red sox. He has been one of the most dominant starters in the game now that he is healthy in 2011. Jeff Niemann is 4-4 with a 4.53 ERA and 1.416 WHIP in 10 starts for Tampa Bay, including 1-3 with a 5.53 ERA and 1.590 WHIP in five home outings. Beckett is 9-4 with a 3.65 ERA and 1.094 WHIP in 19 career starts against Tampa. Niemann is 2-2 with a 6.62 ERA and 1.811 WHIP in four career starts against Boston. The Red Sox are 8-1 in their last 9 games as a road favorite of -110 to -150. Boston is 21-5 in their last 26 during game 3 of a series. The Rays are 0-4 in Niemann’s last four starts as a home underdog. The Red Sox have won 39 of their last 55 games overall. Take Boston Sunday. -Jack Jones (Handicapperspicks.com)

MLB Picks: July 15th 2011
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Pick: Indians vs. Orioles Under 9
With the O/U line currently having climbed from 8.5 to nine (at some shops) I believe we’re getting some solid value with the “under.” Tomlin gets the call for the Tribe. He’s got a stingy 3.15 ERA with an excellent 0.85 WHIP his last three starts. Each of those was of the “quality” variety. He hasn’t beaten himself. Over those three starts, he walked just two – striking out 11. Note that the last two of those games finished with exactly nine combined runs – emphasizing the importance of getting nine rather than 8.5 here. Note that Tomlin was tough against Baltimore back in the spring. In six innings, he allowed only two runs. Admittedly, Arrieta hasn’t been quite as good as Tomlin. However, after four straight road starts, he should be thrilled to finally pitch at home again. In his last start here, he tossed seven shutout innings vs. Tampa. In fact, six of his last seven home starts, including three straight, have been of the “quality” variety. He’s been excellent in seven of nine starts here, while struggling in the other two. The O’s have seen the “under” go a lucrative 34-17-1 the past few seasons, when playing a home game where the line ranged from +100 to -125. Assuming you can get nine, consider a play on the Under. -Ben Burns

Pick: New York Mets +101
Doc’s Sports COMP Pick: Take #954 Ny Mets over Philadelphia (7:10pm est): I love to bet against rookie pitchers on the road, especially in highly intense divisional match-up like we have here in this one. Phillies starter Vance Worley has done a really good job so far in his short stretch of games in the Philadelphia starting rotation but keep in mind his last four good starts, three of them came against the light hitting Marlins, A’s and Mariners. Things don’t get much easier than pitching against that trio of offenses. In those four games Worley didn’t manage to go above a 2-1 ratio of strikeouts to walks either, which shows he was far from dominating on the hill. The Mets counter with knuckle ball pitcher R.A Dickey in this one. Dickey started the season off a little slow but has been very strong since May 20th. In those last ten starts Dickey has posted an ERA of 2.41 and has been even more impressive at home with an ERA of under 2.00 during this time. The Mets are 8-3 in Dickey’s last 11 home starts versus teams with winning records like the Phillies bring into this game tonight. Overall the Mets have won four straight games with Dickey on the hill. Big game for the Mets here as they have to decide soon if they are going to play for this season or pack it up and trade off their key pieces to build a better team for the future. This series may go a long way in deciding all of that. Overall the Mets rank higher than Philadelphia in hitting and have the better pitcher on the mound in this one. Both of those things combined with playing at home as an underdog makes them way too good to pass up on here. Take the Mets in this one. -Doc’s Sports

Pick: San Francisco Giants -133
This is a very decent price to get Tim Lincecum and the San Francisco Giants at Friday. Lincecum is having yet another tremendous season, going 7-7 with a 3.06 ERA and 1.200 WHIP with 132 strikeouts in 123 1/3 innings. Lincecum has pitched his best on the road, going 4-4 with a 2.53 ERA and 1.182 WHIP in 10 starts. He’ll be up against Dustin Moseley, who is 1-4 with a 3.83 ERA and 1.383 WHIP in eight home starts this year for San Diego. Lincecum is 6-4 with a 2.20 ERA in 15 lifetime starts versus San Diego. The Giants have won three straight and five of six overall to sit atop the NL West division at 53-40. San Diego has lost six straight, and they’ve scored a combined 4 runs in their last five games overall. The Padres are hitting .217 and scoring 2.7 runs/game at home this year. Moseley is 2-13 (-10.6 Units) against the money line as an underdog of +100 or higher over the last 2 seasons. Take the Giants on the Money Line. -Black Widow (Handicapperspicks.com)

Colorado Avalance vs. Phoenix Coyotes
Free NHL Pick: Phoenix Coyotes (March 4th 2010 – Ben Burns)
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The Avalanche have won both meetings in this series so far this season. This should be a good spot for the Coyotes to get some payback though. While Phoenix had last night off, Colorado is coming off a late win at Anaheim. The Avs are now playing their third game in the past four nights. Note that the Avs are 12-18 (-4.4) the last 30 times that they played the second of back to back games.

Yes, the Avs won both earlier meetings. However, they both came at Colorado. Considering that the Coyotes have the third most home wins (22) in the Western Conference, winning here at Phoenix figures to be considerably more difficult. Note that the Coyotes were 2-0 as a host of the Avs last season. Also, note that they’ve gone 11-5 the last 16 times that they were coming off a loss by two or more goals. Consider Phoenix