San Antonio Spurs vs. New Jersey Nets
Free Pick: New Jersey +8 (March 29th 2010 – Big Al McMordie)
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At 7:30 pm, our complimentary selection is on the New Jersey Nets + the points over San Antonio. Last night, we cashed a big High Roller selection on the Spurs over Boston (we’re now 5-0 our last 5 High Rollers), but the Spurs were in one of their best roles on Sunday (they were on the road, playing with revenge); tonight, they’re in one of their worst. And that is to play AGAINST San Antonio if it is playing without rest, and is PK or Favored off back-to-back wins. Since 2005, the Spurs have been very poor in this situation. With San Antone off back-to-back BIG wins over Cleveland and Boston, look for the Spurs to stumble a bit vs. the league’s worst team, New Jersey. And, of course, it certainly wouldn’t hurt if Gregg Popovich decided later in the day to rest Timmy Duncan (this is one of only a few “back-to-backs” left on San Antonio’s schedule, which Coach Pop likes to utilize to rest Timmy). That would make our pointspread, here, look even more attractive. So, this is also a play where it makes sense to get down earlier, rather than later. Good luck, as always…Al McMordie.
Miami Heat vs. Milwaukee Bucks
Free Pick: Milwaukee -2.5 (March 26th 2010 – Doc’s Sports)
Confidence in the Bucks for bettors is at a low point right now after this team laid an egg against a really bad Philadelphia team last time out on this same court. The Bucks were favored by 10 in that game but lost by 15. And then Miami goes to Chicago last night and blows out the Bulls that were favored and that many public bettors were behind. So the general consensus is that Miami will roll tonight. But if you have followed our plays you know we don’t follow the public sentiment. This Bucks team deserves a bad game every now and then but this team has played its best lately against playoff competition and this squad has been playing some of the best defense in the NBA, which will give you a chance to win every night, even when your offense is not clicking. Miami comes into this game on a back-to-back and they are just 6-9 ATS in these situations this season. Andrew Bogut for the Bucks was a late scratch and will miss this game but we think that this team will rise up in his absence and that the home crowd will push this team through. Milwaukee has won and covered three straight in this series and we think they have the Heat’s number again tonight.
Detroit Pistons vs. New Jersey Nets
Free Pick: Detroit +1.5 (March 26th 2010 – Big Al McMordie)
At 8:05 pm, our complimentary selection is on the Detroit Pistons + over the New Jersey Nets. With KiKi Vandeweghe’s men closing in (possibly) on the worst season record in NBA history, it’s awfully hard to back them as a favorite — even against this dreadful Detroit Piston club. New Jersey did win its last game, 93-79 vs Sacramento, but dating back 20 years, NBA teams with a win percentage less than .300 off a win in the last 24 games of the season, are a poor 56-112 (33% ATS) at home. Take the Pistons on Friday night. Good luck, as always…Big Al McMordie.
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Los Angeles Lakers vs. San Antonio Spurs
Free Pick: Los Angeles Lakers +1 (March 24th 2010 – Big Al McMordie)
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At 9:30 pm, our complimentary selection is on the Los Angeles Lakers plus the point over San Antonio. The Spurs are playing their best basketball of this not-so-young season, so from coach Gregg Popovich’s perspective, it’s “better late than never.” They went into Oklahoma City on Monday and upset the Thunder, and that qualified as their biggest win of the year — even more than their 20-point blowout of the Lakers earlier this season. And that’s because San Antonio rebounded from a heartbreaking overtime loss at Philips Arena on Sunday, so they showed a lot of mettle in winning at OKC when playing on the road without rest. But even though the Spurs are finally playing well, they will be without Tony Parker tonight, and his quickness over Derek Fisher was one of the few, if any, matchup advantages the Spurs had over the Lakers. Surely, Duncan is, at best, a break-even proposition against Gasol. And San Antone has nobody who can guard either Lamar Odom or Kobe Bryant. The Lakers only “negative” in this game is that they might lack the requisite motivation, given they’re firmly locked into the #1 seed out west. But Los Angeles generally gets up to play the Spurs, and we’ll take L.A. as the small underdog here. Good luck, as always…Big Al McMordie.
San Antonio Spurs vs. Oklahoma City Thunder
Free Pick: Oklahoma City -4 (March 22nd 2010 – Big Al McMordie)
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At 8 pm, our complimentary selection is on the Oklahoma City Thunder minus the points over San Antonio. OKC plays with revenge from an 8-point loss in the Alamo City in February (and a 1-point defeat at home in January). And the Thunder are a solid 20-11 ATS when playing with revenge this season! Last night, the Spurs had to go into overtime at Atlanta when they blew a four point lead with a little over a minute to play in regulation. Off that heartbreaking defeat, look for the unrested Spurs to have a tough time tonight against the younger, more athletic Thunder. Not only will they once again be without Tony Parker (who’s scheduled to miss the rest of the regular season), but Manu Ginobili has made just 9 of his 36 shots this season vs. Oklahoma City! The Thunder sit one game ahead of San Antonio in the Western Conference standings, and still have hopes of catching the Jazz for home court advantage in the playoffs. OKC is 22-11 at home this season, and I think they’ll roll over the Spurs. Lay the points. Good luck, as always…Big Al McMordie.
Denver Nuggets vs. Memphis Grizzlies
Free Pick: Under 214 (March 13th 2010 – Jeff Alexander)
Denver isn’t nearly the same offensive juggernaut on the road that it is at home. In fact, the Nuggets are averaging just 102.6 ppg on the road, 5 points below their season average. And Memphis is only scoring 100.7 ppg at home. With this in mind, I’d say we’re getting some pretty good value with the Under with this line. The Under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in Memphis and 7-2 in the last 9 meetings overall. The Under is also 4-0 in the Nuggets’ last 4 road games and 20-6 in the Grizzlies’ last 26 games as a home underdog of 4.5 or fewer points. We’ll take the Under.
Richmond vs. Xavier
Free Pick: Xavier -4 (March 13th 2010 – Big Al McMordie)
At 3:25 pm, our complimentary selection is on the Xavier Musketeers minus the points over Richmond. No other conference tournament in the country has gone as much to the Favorites, as the Atlantic 10 Tournament. This year, the “chalk” is a modest 4-3, but dating back 20 seasons, the Atlantic 10 Tourney has seen favorites go 99-37 ATS when laying less than 13 points if their opponent is not off a win by more than 13 points. This afternoon, Xavier is favored over Richmond, who won its last game by just five points, so let’s lay the small number with the Musketeers on Saturday. Good luck, as always…Big Al McMordie.
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San Antonio Spurs vs. Cleveland Cavaliers
Free NBA Pick: Under (March 8th 2010 – Big Al McMordie)
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At 7:05 pm, our complimentary selection is on the ‘under’ in the Spurs/Cavaliers game. On Friday night, this looked like a heckuva match-up on paper. The Spurs have just started to play their best basketball of the season, while the Cavaliers have been the league’s best team. But then, on Saturday, San Antonio’s 2nd leading scorer, point guard Tony Parker, broke a bone in his hand, and will miss the rest of the regular season. And coach Mike Brown decided to rest LeBron James against Milwaukee (in part because of a gimpy ankle), and the Cleveland Plain Dealer reports that James may sit out tonight’s game vs. the Spurs as well. With all this star power (and fire power) on the sidelines tonight, the rotations will be a bit messed up, and I look for the offensive efficiency of each team to suffer a bit. After all, both teams run their offenses thru Parker and James. Let’s play on the Cavs and Spurs to sail ‘under’ the total tonight.
San Antonio Spurs vs. Memphis Grizzlies
Free NBA Pick: Memphis +1.5 (March 6th 2010 – Big Al McMordie)
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At 8:05 pm, our complimentary selection is on the Memphis Grizzlies plus the points over San Antone. Last night, the Spurs defeated the New Orleans Hornets at home in the Alamo City, and Gregg Popovich’s crew has definitely had the Hornets’ number this season, winning all three games. But this match-up tonight in Memphis spells T-R-O-U-B-L-E for the Spurs, as San Antonio is a terrible 34% ATS as an UNRESTED favorite (or PK) off back-to-back wins. The Spurs come into this contest on a three-game win streak, so they fall squarely within their negative 34% ATS team situation. Memphis is 6-2 ATS its last eight, including impressive upset road wins over the Hornets and Bulls its last two games. With Memphis a solid 21-10 ATS off a win this season, we’ll take the home dog Grizzlies on Saturday. Good luck, as always…Big Al McMordie.
Sacramento Kings vs. Dallas Mavericks
Free Pick: Sacramento Kings +8.5 (March 5th 2010 – Big Al McMordie)
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At 8:35 pm, our complimentary selection is on the Sacramento Kings + the points over Dallas. The Mavericks have now won nine straight games, after downing Minnesota 112-109 in Texas on Wednesday night. However, the Timberwolves did everything BUT win that game, as they outrebounded the Mavs 49-30, and shot 53% from the floor, yet lost because of 22 turnovers (many of them unforced). Of course, that narrow win won’t surprise folks who have followed the Mavericks’ pointspread history this season. Dating back to November, Dallas is now on an 0-21 ATS RUN as a home favorite of -4.5 points or more!!! As the old saying goes, “If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it.” And I’m not going to step in front of that 0-21 angle. Let’s fade Dallas once again as a large home favorite, and play on Sacramento, who seeks its 5th straight cover tonight.
Memphis Grizzlies vs. Chicago Bulls
Free NBA Pick: Chicago Bulls (March 4th 2010 – Big Al McMordie)
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At 8:05 pm, our complimentary selection is on the Chicago Bulls over the Memphis Grizzlies. In its last game, the Bulls were blown out, 116-92, as a 1-point home favorite, by the Atlanta Hawks. Thus, Chicago failed to cover the spread by 25 points! Off that big home loss, I look for Vinny Del Negro’s men to rebound here at home vs. the Memphis Grizzlies, as they fall into a super 34-8 ATS system. What we want to do is play on any NBA home team off a home game in which they failed to cover by 25+ points, if they’re matched up against a foe off exactly one win. NBA teams, off an embarassing game in front of their home fans, tend to play much better if their next game is also at home. With Memphis in off an upset win last night at New Orleans, we’ll fade the Grizzlies here at the United Center
Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Dallas Mavericks
Free Pick: Minnesota +14 (March 3rd 2010 – Big Al McMordie)
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At 8:35 pm, our complimentary selection is on the Minnesota Timberwolves plus the points over Dallas. The Mavericks come into this ball game red-hot, as they have won eight straight, including four straight ATS. And, in their last game, the Mavs went into Charlotte — a very tough place for visitors — and escaped with an 89-84 win, after being down big early in the game. In their win streak, Dallas has defeated such teams as Phoenix, Orlando, Miami, the Lakers, Atlanta and New Orleans, so this is a very impressive stretch of games! Still, Dallas is a very poor 0-20 ATS its last 20 as a home favorite of more than 4 points since November 20, 2009! And Minnesota falls into a 161-111 ATS system of mine that plays on certain rested, double-digit underdogs off three or more SU losses. Take the points with Minnesota.
New York Knicks vs. Cleveland Cavaliers
Free NBA Pick: New York Knicks +12 (March 1st 2010 – Big Al McMordie)
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At 7:05 pm, our complimentary selection is on the New York Knicks plus the points over Cleveland. The Cavs have won both meetings vs. New York this season, but each victory has been rather close. Cleveland beat New York 113-106 on February 6, as a 12-point home favorite, and also defeated the Knicks 100-91 at Madison Square Garden back in November. Overall, the Cavs have won seven straight in this series, but the last four have all been by single-digits. And I expect another close game tonight. Although the Knicks have dropped nine of their last 10 games straight-up, most have been close defeats, with only two of the 10 coming by margins larger than tonight’s 12-point spread. And since 2006, New York is a solid 25-5 ATS as an underdog of +10 or more points, if its opponent is off a straight-up win, including a perfect 13-0 ATS if its foe won by 10 points or less in its last game. With Cleveland in off an 8-point overtime win at Toronto, this game falls into our 13-0 tightener. Take New York. Good luck, as always…Big Al McMordie.
Al McMordie, unfortunately, lost his NBA play last night on the Atlanta Hawks, but has zeroed in on a great situation on Monday’s card that’s 100% PERFECT since 1998. It’s 11-0 ATS, and the 12th STRAIGHT WINNER has B-L-O-W-O-U-T written all over it. Pick it up right now, and get your week off to a F-A-S-T start!
Portland Trailblazers vs. Minnesota Timberwolves
Free NBA Pick: Portland -4 (February 27th 2010 – Big Al McMordie
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At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Portland Trail Blazers minus the points over Minnesota. Portland has won two of its first three games on this five-game road trip, although the loss came last night, by four points, in Chicago as a 3.5-point underdog. Minnesota is mired in a big slump, as the Timberwolves have won just one of their previous nine games, including a blowout loss last night in Oklahoma City. Tonight, we’ll take the road-favored Trail Blazers, as Portland falls into a 64-35 ATS system of mine. What we want to do is play on any .550 (or better) road favorite of less than eight points that failed to cover as a road underdog its last time out, if it is matched up against a .399 (or worse) opponent off back to back losses. Portland is a super 27-13 ATS as a road favorite, and Minny is 28-41 ATS at home its last 69. Take Portland. Good luck, as always…Big Al McMordie.
Al McMordie is having a terrific week, CASHING 4 of his 5 Releases here. Last Saturday, Big Al SMASHED the Books with his Sun Belt Conference Game of the Year on Louisiana Monroe, and Al has another HUGE Conference Game of the Year Winner today out of a 76-33 ATS System. Get on it.
