MLB Picks: July 19th 2011
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MLB Pick: Milwaukee Brewers -119
Few starters have had as much success against the Arizona Diamondbacks as Yovani Gallardo. The Milwaukee Brewers are looking to bounce back from a shutout loss to Arizona last night, and Gallardo is just the man to help them do it. Gallardo is 4-0 with a 1.13 ERA and 0.958 WHIP in four lifetime starts versus Arizona. He held them to 1 run and 5 base runners in 7 innings of a 3-1 victory over the Diamondbacks on 7/6/2011, his lone starts against them this season. Barry Enright is 1-3 with a 6.49 ERA and 1.673 WHIP in six starts this season for Arizona. He is no match for Gallardo in this one, and should be a much bigger underdog tonight. Arizona is 1-9 (-9.3 Units) against the money line with a well rested bullpen – threw 4 innings or less over last 3 games over the last 2 seasons, losing in this spot by 4.2 runs/game. The Brewers are 4-0 in their last 4 games as a favorite. Milwaukee is 7-1 in Gallardo’s last 8 starts vs. a team with a winning record. The Brewers are 13-5 in Gallardo’s last 18 starts as a favorite. The Diamondbacks are 1-9 in Enright’s last 10 starts as an underdog. Take the Brewers on the Money Line. -Black Widow
MLB Pick: Diamondbacks vs. Brewers Over 9
This is about as easy as it gets when it comes to totals. The offenses already have the advantage playing at Chase Field, but both starting pitchers figure to make sure there are plenty of runs scored tonight. Milwaukee will start Yovani Gallardo, who may be 10-6 on the year, but he is just 3-5 with a 5.02 ERA and 1.570 WHIP on the road. Arizona will counter with Barry Enright, who has a 6.26 ERA and 1.522 WHIP at home. -Steve Janus
MLB Pick: Texas Rangers -130
Play on Texas at 10:05 ET. The Rangers have won 11 in a row and come into tonight’s game leading the Angels by four games in the AL West. They are allowing less than two runs per game their last seven games and overall have allowed just 24 runs during the 11-game win streak. The offense, meanwhile, is averaging 6.5 rpg. The pitching matchup of Ogando vs. Chatwood definitely favors the visitors. The Angels are just 3-7 at home when Chatwood starts while Texas is as a favorite of -125 to -175 when Ogando starts. 10* on Texas. -Tom Freese (Handicapperspicks.com)
MLB Picks: July 15th 2011
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Pick: Indians vs. Orioles Under 9
With the O/U line currently having climbed from 8.5 to nine (at some shops) I believe we’re getting some solid value with the “under.” Tomlin gets the call for the Tribe. He’s got a stingy 3.15 ERA with an excellent 0.85 WHIP his last three starts. Each of those was of the “quality” variety. He hasn’t beaten himself. Over those three starts, he walked just two – striking out 11. Note that the last two of those games finished with exactly nine combined runs – emphasizing the importance of getting nine rather than 8.5 here. Note that Tomlin was tough against Baltimore back in the spring. In six innings, he allowed only two runs. Admittedly, Arrieta hasn’t been quite as good as Tomlin. However, after four straight road starts, he should be thrilled to finally pitch at home again. In his last start here, he tossed seven shutout innings vs. Tampa. In fact, six of his last seven home starts, including three straight, have been of the “quality” variety. He’s been excellent in seven of nine starts here, while struggling in the other two. The O’s have seen the “under” go a lucrative 34-17-1 the past few seasons, when playing a home game where the line ranged from +100 to -125. Assuming you can get nine, consider a play on the Under. -Ben Burns
Pick: New York Mets +101
Doc’s Sports COMP Pick: Take #954 Ny Mets over Philadelphia (7:10pm est): I love to bet against rookie pitchers on the road, especially in highly intense divisional match-up like we have here in this one. Phillies starter Vance Worley has done a really good job so far in his short stretch of games in the Philadelphia starting rotation but keep in mind his last four good starts, three of them came against the light hitting Marlins, A’s and Mariners. Things don’t get much easier than pitching against that trio of offenses. In those four games Worley didn’t manage to go above a 2-1 ratio of strikeouts to walks either, which shows he was far from dominating on the hill. The Mets counter with knuckle ball pitcher R.A Dickey in this one. Dickey started the season off a little slow but has been very strong since May 20th. In those last ten starts Dickey has posted an ERA of 2.41 and has been even more impressive at home with an ERA of under 2.00 during this time. The Mets are 8-3 in Dickey’s last 11 home starts versus teams with winning records like the Phillies bring into this game tonight. Overall the Mets have won four straight games with Dickey on the hill. Big game for the Mets here as they have to decide soon if they are going to play for this season or pack it up and trade off their key pieces to build a better team for the future. This series may go a long way in deciding all of that. Overall the Mets rank higher than Philadelphia in hitting and have the better pitcher on the mound in this one. Both of those things combined with playing at home as an underdog makes them way too good to pass up on here. Take the Mets in this one. -Doc’s Sports
Pick: San Francisco Giants -133
This is a very decent price to get Tim Lincecum and the San Francisco Giants at Friday. Lincecum is having yet another tremendous season, going 7-7 with a 3.06 ERA and 1.200 WHIP with 132 strikeouts in 123 1/3 innings. Lincecum has pitched his best on the road, going 4-4 with a 2.53 ERA and 1.182 WHIP in 10 starts. He’ll be up against Dustin Moseley, who is 1-4 with a 3.83 ERA and 1.383 WHIP in eight home starts this year for San Diego. Lincecum is 6-4 with a 2.20 ERA in 15 lifetime starts versus San Diego. The Giants have won three straight and five of six overall to sit atop the NL West division at 53-40. San Diego has lost six straight, and they’ve scored a combined 4 runs in their last five games overall. The Padres are hitting .217 and scoring 2.7 runs/game at home this year. Moseley is 2-13 (-10.6 Units) against the money line as an underdog of +100 or higher over the last 2 seasons. Take the Giants on the Money Line. -Black Widow (Handicapperspicks.com)
New York Knicks vs. Indiana Pacers
Free Pick: New York Knicks +10 (Black Widow)
Inflated line here with the odds makers giving the Indiana Pacers way too much respect. Hard to believe Indiana could be favored by double-digits tonight against the Knicks considering the Pacers are just 29-48 this season. Indiana has been playing well lately, but they don’t have many wins against playoff teams during their run. And they have not fared well against the Knicks. New York is 4-1 SU in their last 5 meetings with Indiana, winning by 43, 7, 4 and 9 points. The Knicks are 26-11 ATS (+13.9 Units) in a road game where the total is greater than or equal to 210 over the last 2 seasons. The Knicks are 33-14 ATS (+17.6 Units) when playing their 3rd game in 4 days over the last 2 seasons. Playing on little rest has not hurt this team one bit, and they have a lot of confidence following their overtime win against the celtics last night. Take New York and the points.
Denver Nuggets vs. Oklahoma City Thunder
Free Pick: Under 211 Points (Jimmy Boyd)
The Nuggets aren’t the same high scoring team on the road. In fact, the Nuggets have been held under the century mark in their last 4 road games. Plus, OKC has proven to be a quality defensive team on its home floor, holding its opponents to only 95.9 points on the season. The last time these two teams faced off, the Thunder gave up 119 points to the Nuggets in a 29-point loss. In addition, they gave up 140 points in a defeat to Utah last night. With these two games in mind, I expect OKC to really tighten the screws on the defensive end and to be careful not to get into a track meet. History is certainly on our side here as home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210, revenging a loss to an opponent of 10 points or more, off a road loss, are 82-40 Under since 1996. Lastly, Denver is 23-10 Under in road games where the total is greater than or equal to 200 this season. Bet the Under tonight.
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San Diego Padres vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
Free MLB Pick: San Diego Padres +175 (April 5th 2010 – Black Widow)
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San Diego has gone 6-1 in their last 7 games as an underdog, and 6-1 in their last 7 games as a dog of +151 to +200. The Padres enter the 2010 season under the radar once again. This team is loaded with more talent than most folks know about, especially offensively where several young guys now have a year of experience under their belt. Blanks, Venable, Cabrera, Hairston and Gwynn are guys that don’t get the credit they deserve, and then there’s Adrian Gonzalez who remains one of the best power hitters in the business. Remember, the Padres actually won 5 more games than Arizona did last season. This is a very generous line tonight as nearly a 2-to-1 underdog against the Diamondbacks. We’ll take the value, and take the Padres with veteran Jon Garland on the mound.
Portland Trailblazers vs. Denver Nuggets
Prediction: Portland +5 (April 1st 2010 – Black Widow)
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Denver just hasn’t been the same team without George Karl on the sidelines. They don’t have the same intensity, and they aren’t able to make the proper adjustments to put themselves in a good position to win. As a result, Denver is 0-8-1 ATS in their last 9 games overall, losing 6 of those games. Portland is 9-1 in their last 10 games overall, with their only loss coming by 6 points at Phoenix. This is a hot team that is hitting on all cylinders right now as we near the end of the season. They were allowed to rest their starters in the fourth quarter in last night’s 118-90 win over the New York Knicks, so the Blazers will be fresh tonight even though this is the second of a back-to-back. Denver is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) after playing 3 consecutive road games this season. Portland is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) after scoring 110 points or more this season. Portland is a superb 23-12 ATS in all road games this season. Better yet, the Blazers are 14-3 ATS (+10.7 Units) when playing on back-to-back days this season. So little rest has not effected this team one bit as they can go deep off the bench and they are in excellent shape. Take the Blazers and the points.
Miami Heat vs. Chicago Bulls
Free NBA Pick: Chicago Bulls -1 (March 25th 2010 – Black Widow)
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With Derek Rose back on the floor, the Bulls have won their last 2 games since he returned from injury. They went on the road to beat the 76ers by 14 and handled the Houston Rockets at hom by 10. Now they’ve had 2 days’ rest to prepare for the Miami Heat, one of the teams they are trailing in the Eastern Conference standings. Chicago sits in 9th place in the East and are they are looking to finish off the season with a bang to sneak into the playoffs. Home-court advantage has really been a big factor when Miami and Chicago get together. The home team is 5-0 SU L5 & 8-1 SU L9 meetings in this series. The Bulls are a completely different team with Rose running the show, and they can beat anyone in the league when he’s in there. The Heat are just 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games as a road underdog of 4.5 points or less. Take Chicago and lay the points.
