New York Knicks vs. Indiana Pacers
Free Pick: New York Knicks +10 (Black Widow)
Inflated line here with the odds makers giving the Indiana Pacers way too much respect. Hard to believe Indiana could be favored by double-digits tonight against the Knicks considering the Pacers are just 29-48 this season. Indiana has been playing well lately, but they don’t have many wins against playoff teams during their run. And they have not fared well against the Knicks. New York is 4-1 SU in their last 5 meetings with Indiana, winning by 43, 7, 4 and 9 points. The Knicks are 26-11 ATS (+13.9 Units) in a road game where the total is greater than or equal to 210 over the last 2 seasons. The Knicks are 33-14 ATS (+17.6 Units) when playing their 3rd game in 4 days over the last 2 seasons. Playing on little rest has not hurt this team one bit, and they have a lot of confidence following their overtime win against the celtics last night. Take New York and the points.
Denver Nuggets vs. Oklahoma City Thunder
Free Pick: Under 211 Points (Jimmy Boyd)
The Nuggets aren’t the same high scoring team on the road. In fact, the Nuggets have been held under the century mark in their last 4 road games. Plus, OKC has proven to be a quality defensive team on its home floor, holding its opponents to only 95.9 points on the season. The last time these two teams faced off, the Thunder gave up 119 points to the Nuggets in a 29-point loss. In addition, they gave up 140 points in a defeat to Utah last night. With these two games in mind, I expect OKC to really tighten the screws on the defensive end and to be careful not to get into a track meet. History is certainly on our side here as home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210, revenging a loss to an opponent of 10 points or more, off a road loss, are 82-40 Under since 1996. Lastly, Denver is 23-10 Under in road games where the total is greater than or equal to 200 this season. Bet the Under tonight.
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San Diego Padres vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
Free MLB Pick: San Diego Padres +175 (April 5th 2010 – Black Widow)
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San Diego has gone 6-1 in their last 7 games as an underdog, and 6-1 in their last 7 games as a dog of +151 to +200. The Padres enter the 2010 season under the radar once again. This team is loaded with more talent than most folks know about, especially offensively where several young guys now have a year of experience under their belt. Blanks, Venable, Cabrera, Hairston and Gwynn are guys that don’t get the credit they deserve, and then there’s Adrian Gonzalez who remains one of the best power hitters in the business. Remember, the Padres actually won 5 more games than Arizona did last season. This is a very generous line tonight as nearly a 2-to-1 underdog against the Diamondbacks. We’ll take the value, and take the Padres with veteran Jon Garland on the mound.
Portland Trailblazers vs. Denver Nuggets
Prediction: Portland +5 (April 1st 2010 – Black Widow)
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Denver just hasn’t been the same team without George Karl on the sidelines. They don’t have the same intensity, and they aren’t able to make the proper adjustments to put themselves in a good position to win. As a result, Denver is 0-8-1 ATS in their last 9 games overall, losing 6 of those games. Portland is 9-1 in their last 10 games overall, with their only loss coming by 6 points at Phoenix. This is a hot team that is hitting on all cylinders right now as we near the end of the season. They were allowed to rest their starters in the fourth quarter in last night’s 118-90 win over the New York Knicks, so the Blazers will be fresh tonight even though this is the second of a back-to-back. Denver is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) after playing 3 consecutive road games this season. Portland is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) after scoring 110 points or more this season. Portland is a superb 23-12 ATS in all road games this season. Better yet, the Blazers are 14-3 ATS (+10.7 Units) when playing on back-to-back days this season. So little rest has not effected this team one bit as they can go deep off the bench and they are in excellent shape. Take the Blazers and the points.
Miami Heat vs. Chicago Bulls
Free NBA Pick: Chicago Bulls -1 (March 25th 2010 – Black Widow)
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With Derek Rose back on the floor, the Bulls have won their last 2 games since he returned from injury. They went on the road to beat the 76ers by 14 and handled the Houston Rockets at hom by 10. Now they’ve had 2 days’ rest to prepare for the Miami Heat, one of the teams they are trailing in the Eastern Conference standings. Chicago sits in 9th place in the East and are they are looking to finish off the season with a bang to sneak into the playoffs. Home-court advantage has really been a big factor when Miami and Chicago get together. The home team is 5-0 SU L5 & 8-1 SU L9 meetings in this series. The Bulls are a completely different team with Rose running the show, and they can beat anyone in the league when he’s in there. The Heat are just 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games as a road underdog of 4.5 points or less. Take Chicago and lay the points.
Wright State vs. Butler
Free Pick: Butler -7 (March 9th 2010 – Black Widow)
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This is a home game for Butler in the Horizon League Championship, played in Indianapolis, Indiana. Butler lost in the title game last season to Cleveland State, and went on to lose in the first round of the NCAA Tournament to LSU. With all 5 starters back from that team, this Bulldogs’ squad will be extra motivated to make sure they continue their momentum by winning the championship this time around. Butler is riding the nation’s longest winning streak at 19 games. “It’s a little bit of unfinished business – you feel like that when you get all that way and then you don’t finish the deal,” Bulldogs forward Matt Howard said. “It’s the same thing this year. We’re focused, we want to win. We don’t feel comfortable with where we are.” Wright State is 3-11 ATS in all road games this season, and 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in road games off a win against a conference rival this season. In a home game for the Bulldogs, and with this team looking to make amends for last year’s loss in the title game, we’ll take Butler and lay the points.
Toronto Raptors vs. Houston Rockets
Free NBA Pick: Over 214 (March 1st 2010 – Doc’s Sports)
Both teams are giving up a ton of points lately. The Rockets have given up an average of 115 per game in their last five games, and not one of those games was an overtime contest! They allowed a whopping 133 last time out on the road at Utah. This has to be considered one of the worst defensive teams in the NBA since the trade deadline. And look who they face tonight, the No. 26 defensive team in the NBA (and the No. 4 offense). Toronto gives up a whopping 109 PPG on the road and they have been pretty bad in that area lately and they are almost always good to put up 100+ a night, even on a decent defense, which is a category that this Houston team just doesn’t fall under right now. The over is 18-9-1 in Toronto’s road games this season and the over is 17-12 in Houston’s home games this season. We think this is going to be a barnburner and this one could get close to 220.
Utah Jazz vs. Los Angeles Clippers
Free NBA Pick: Clippers +6.5 (March 1st 2010 – Black Widow)
We’ll back the Clippers as a big home underdog to the Utah Jazz as Monday’s free pick. The Jazz are just one game over .500 on the road this season and should not be this heavily favored against a Clippers’ team that is actually 17-12 at home this year. L.A. only gives up 96.2 points/game at home against teams who are averaging 100.3 points/game. The Clippers are 3-0 S.U. & 3-0 ATS in their last 3 home games. Utah is just 6-17 ATS (-12.7 Units) in road games after allowing 100 points or more 2 straight games over the last 3 seasons. The Clippers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record and 11-3-1 ATS in their last 15 home games overall. Take the Clippers and the points.
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