College Basketball Picks: February 5th 2011
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Pick: Connecticut -2.5
Off back-to-back SU and ATS losses, expect the Huskies to be out for blood against an inferior Seton Hall squad today. UConn has had no trouble with the Pirates. In fact, it is 17-1 against Seton Hall dating back to 1998, winning those contests by an average score of 74-61. The Huskies enter this contest having won 10 in a row over the Pirates, with all 10 victories coming by at least 8 points. UConn got out of the gate slow against both Louisville and Syracuse, but don’t count on that happening again tonight. Consider that the Huskies are a perfect 7-0 ATS after being held to 30 points or less in the first half in 2 straight games over the last 3 seasons. UConn is winning by an average score of 77.1 to 67.9 in this situation. In addition, Seton Hall is a poor 3-12 ATS when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. > 80%) over the last 2 seasons, falling to these opponents by an average score of 74.7 to 67.1. The Pirates may hang around for a while, but UConn will be on top when the finals gun sounds. Lay the points. -Jimmy Boyd

Pick: Butler +3.5
NICE Horizon league matchup on Saturday and I like Butler in the underdog role even though they’re sporting a not-so-special 3-6 record while on the road this season, 6-5 against conference opponents, and 8-4 against non-conference opponents. On Jan. 7, Butler defeated Cleveland State 79-56 at Hinkle Fieldhouse. On the road, the Bulldogs are averaging 66.6 scoring, and holding teams to 68.3 points scored on defense. Cleveland St. is a legitimate BIG PLAY team this year, they’ve won 6 in a row, 21 on the season and are 13-0 at home. What am I thinking you ask? Look at the Bulldogs stats/trends as underdogs this year. 7-1 ATS in their last 8, and 14-5 their last 19. You’ll see why I’m leaning the way I am. They’ve covered the last 2 times they’ve been dogs this year. 1x vs. WSU, and another vs. Duke. 6 of their 9 losses have been by 6 or less points, they lost twice in OT and 1x by 2 points. They keep their matchups close folks. As far as stats go Butler holds the edge in PPG, FG%, FT%, Rebounds, TO’s, and Bench points, its hard not to like the intangibles w/ this team. My sources tell me PG Ronald Nored (Gametime decision) will give it a GOOD Shot in the AM. I believe Butler have just been having a LONG hangover after last year’s National championship game, and this is as good a game as any to break out of their funk. Take them to cover the 3.5 or 4. -Ray Monohan

Pick: Washington State -3
Todays FREE NCAAB WINNER is Washington State over Oregon State. WSU is a respectable 15-7 on the season. However, the Cougars are sitting at 5th in the PAC 10 at 5-5 in Conference play. The team comes off of a humiliating 69-43 defeat against rival Oregon, a game in which Washington State was a 2 ½ point favorite. They must win this matchup in order to make up some ground in the Conference. The tandem of Guards, Klay Thompson and Faisal Aden are combining for 35.7 PPG. 6’8’’ 255 lb. Forward, DeAngelo Castro is a true force in the paint and will out-muscle counterpart Joe Burton. The Cougars spanked the Beavers in their only meeting TY, 84-70. In that victory, WSU shot 50.9% from the field, holding OSU to a mere 33.8% shooting. Prior to their 68-56 outright win over Washington in their last game, Oregon State dropped 6 of their L7 both SU and ATS. Jared Cunningham is leading the Beavers with 13.9 PPG. The Guard has given opponents problems this season. But his supporting cast just doesn’t have the talent to compete in this one. The ATS numbers slightly favor Oregon State, but they are due for a let down after besting Washington outright as a 13 point ‘dog. The opposite goes for Washington State. They will come back strong after their dreadful loss to Oregon as a 2 ½ point favorite. The Cougars get the win and the cover. Thank you. -Joseph D’Amico

Pick: Northern Iowa -4
UNI owns Drake- the Panthers are 4-0 ATS since Keno Davis left for Providence and any home court advantage is lost in this match up as UNI has a very good crowd presence at the Knapp Center. UNI is the better shooting team and defensive team, and they should be able to overcome the loss of Lucas O’Rear in this match up at least. UNI beat Drake by 20 at home earlier this season hitting 12-24 3 point attempts and holding Drake to 5-15. UNI has also made 13 more free throws than their last three opponents, while the Bulldogs have made 16 less free throws than their last three opponents. UNI has enough perimeter scoring with Johnny Moran, Anthony James, Kwadzo Ahelgbe, Jake Koch, and Marc Sonnen all capable of raining in threes and Drake will have no defensive answer to keep Ahelbge and James out of the lane. Even with the loss of the paint presence of O’Rear I look for UNI to win the rebound battle on both ends as Drake is a very poor offensive rebounding team (20.2% IC) and have a poor DRB rate as well- 68.8%. hile Drake has several options from the perimeter, they are turnover prone (19.1%) and have a poor assist to turnover margin at .8. Drake struggles to create turnovers and UNI takes care of the ball very well (15.2% and 8.9 to/g IC).  I look for UNI to come out shooting well from the perimeter and forcing Drake into comeback mode from the beginning. February is when UNI plays its best basketball under coach Ben Jacobsen and Drake should be a perfect opponent to adjust to life without O’Rear. -Patrick Webb (Handicapperspicks.com)