MLB Picks: April 6th 2011
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Pick: Mariners vs. Rangers Under 8
Rangers scoring 3 runs on Tuesday, could that mean their offense is slowing down? Not sure but this is a risky play but once you hear why you will be confident and know why it’s a free bet too. I was very tempted to pull the string on King Felix and Seattle looking at some number, but a couple things caught my eye and one is he had two starts where he gave 5 and 7 ER vs. Texas. No team has seen him more in the last three years as he has 117.1 IP against them.. Still an ERA under 4, but when a team sees you more they are more likely to get to you. The Rangers will not need much on Wednesday either. Here is the stat that pushed me away from the Mariners despite their relatively decent success vs. CJ Wilson. They were just 14-36 a year ago vs. lefties and they were just the worst team in day games producing just 2.71 runs per game. Now they go up against a lefty and playing the day after a night game this spells trouble for them against CJ Wilson who was very good last year early in the season. Texas on the other hand should be limited to runs and I think 8 is a high total with these two aces on the mound. Felix is just a monster during day starts he had a 1.95 ERA in 10 day starts a year ago and in the last three years combined he has a 2.21 ERA and in April he has also been a monster with an 8-2 record and a 2.27 ERA over the last three years. Texas although has been hot was in the bottom half of the league in runs scored during day games as they put up 1 run per game less than at night with just 4.13. Now facing an ace like Felix and their offense looking like it may be cooling off we find it the perfect time to take this. If you are a sucker for trends here they are. Seattle under 19-6-3 in Felix’s last 28 road games, seems to really put an extra effort when he plays a good team. Seattle U33-15-3 with Felix on the mound last 53 as an under dog and he’s under 40-18-4 in his last 64 road starts. He’s not a pitcher that is worse on the road or vs. a division. This one has a low scoring game written all over it and we will capitalize with Vegas posting it high as the Rangers have averaged 7 runs a game. -Freddy Wills

Pick: Los Angeles Angels -101
Los Angeles’ Dan Haren had a great outing in his first start of the season going seven innings and allowing only one run while striking out six without walking a batter get the start at Tampa Wednesday afternoon. Haren is 5-2 lifetime over the Rays with a career ERA of 2.74 in over 62 innings. Tampa is just not the same with all the defections and Longoria’s absence won’t help. Take ANGELS! -Chip Chirimbes (Handicapperspicks.com)

Our Tuesday night MLB predictions take us to The Ballpark in Arlington where a pair of division leaders will collide in the New York Yankees and Texas Rangers; first pitch for tonight’s series opener is set for 8:05 ET.
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The month of August hasn’t treated the defending World Series champs very kindly as they stand just 4-5 (-$340) overall and enter this brief two-game set with the Rangers having either lost or split each of their L/3 series played. Because of it, manager Joe Girardi’s ballclub now holds just a 1.5-game lead atop the AL East standings over Tampa Bay.

The Rangers return home from a nine-game divisional road trip that saw them tally victories just four times; they most recently dropped two of three to the resurgent A’s in Oakland. Though they hold a healthy eight-game lead in the AL West, the Rangers know they need to play better than .500 ball at this point of the season to make a trip back to the playoffs for the first time since 1999. Texas will enter this brief five-game home stand vs. the Yankees and Red Sox confidently knowing they’re 36-21 in front of the home crowd this season.

New York Yankees (69-42, +$404) vs. Texas Rangers (64-47, $313)
Game Date/Time: Tuesday, August 10th, 8:05 ET
Game Location: Ballpark in Arlington, Arlington, TX
TV/Radio Broadcast: My9, FOX – Southwest, XM

A.J. Burnett was pummeled back into reality his last time out at Toronto where the Blue Jays bludgeoned him to the tune of eight hits (2 HR) and eight ER’s through just 4.2 innings of work. The 5th inning was one he won’t soon forget after giving up seven-runs on six extra-base hits. The defeat dropped him to an even 9-9 on the year with a 4.93 ERA & 1.49 WHIP, and snapped a personal two-game winning streak.

The Yankees have split his 12 road games where he sports a bloated 5.50 ERA & 1.57 WHIP, but he’s fared very well against the Rangers in nine career starts going 4-2 with a 3.34 ERA & 1.15 WHIP. He shut them out at home through seven innings of work in the Yankees 7-3 win back in mid April, but NY has dropped each of his L/5 starts vs. winning ball clubs.

Taking to the bump for the 23rd time this season will be lefty C.J. Wilson who stands 10-5 on the year with a 3.30 ERA & 1.26 WHIP. Texas stands 16-6 with him leading their charge and its tallied victories in each of his L/4 outings. He hasn’t pitched much of late however (8.2 IP L/2 starts) lasting just three innings against the Mariners his last time out to receive his seventh no decision of the season.

He has however been at his best at home for MLB bettors where he stands 8-2 with a stellar 3.28 ERA & 1.19 WHIP; the Rangers are 10-3 in his 13 overall Arlington starts and a perfect 4-0 his L/4 home outings vs. a +.500 opponent. He made his first career start against the Yankees back in April and lost to C.C Sabathia by a 5-1 count allowing seven hits and three ER’s through six IP.

MLB Insider Tip: This is a huge statement game for the Rangers! With Cliff Lee matched up against Javier Vazquez Wednesday, it’s all but a foregone conclusion that Texas wins tomorrow night as well as he’s currently throwing. That said; to pull off the short series sweep of the Yankees would not only bolster the Rangers self confidence, but it would also let it be known to the rest of the World Series contenders that they have the goods in place to do some real damage in the playoffs.

Burnett has been hit or miss for the better part of the L/2 months, while Wilson’s dropped just one of his L/7 home starts over that same span. I’m well aware of Burnett’s mastery of the Rangers of late, but he certainly looks ripe to get walloped this evening coming off that sick display north of the border.

My MLB predictions for this series opener have the Rangers making a huge statement to the Yankees and the rest of baseball! Nolan Ryan’s squad is primed and ready for a serious run in October.

My MLB Prediction: Texas Rangers (Wilson)

Source: BetUS Locker Room Featured on: Handicapperspicks.com

Boston Red Sox vs. Texas Rangers
Free Pick: Boston Red Sox -148
Courtesy of Mike Rose (Handicapperspicks.com)
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Fenway Park is the site of Thursday night’s MLB Network broadcast where the Boston Red Sox will look to sweep the Texas Rangers at home in a series for the first time since August of 2008. Texas enters tonight’s battle hoping to snap its six-game losing streak; the Rangers haven’t dropped seven in a row since doing so way back in April of 2008.

Kevin Youkilis’ two-out RBI double in the bottom of the 12th inning of last night’s game saw the Red Sox take two in a row from the Rangers in walk-off fashion. A win this evening would mark the clubs first three-game winning streak of the season.

The Rangers are 0-2 in both of C.J. Wilson’s starts this season, but the lefty has pitched well enough to at the very least win one of those games. He boasts a 2.08 ERA and has allowed just 12 hits and three ER’s through 13 innings of work.

Both his defense and offense have plagued him early on with badly timed errors and a lack of offensive production; Texas has scored a whopping total of two runs in his first two starts.

Getting the starting call for the third time this season will be RHP Clay Buchholz. He’s 1-1 with a 1.80 ERA and has allowed 10 hits and seven runs (2 ER) with a K/BB ratio of 8/6 through 10 total innings of work on the year.

Texas is 1-2 in Game 3 of a series coming off a loss, while the Red Sox are 1-1 in Game 3 off a “W”.

Boston is 12-8 SU in the L/20 overall meetings with Texas, and has taken eight of the L/10 meetings in Fenway Park.

Though Boston comes in way overinflated right now and I suffered a gut wrenching defeat backing the Rangers last night, I think the Red sox pull off the sweep. Texas simply can’t get out of its own way right now, and I look for their misery to continue tonight before getting healthy back at home over their next seven games.