MLB Picks: April 23rd 2011
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Pick: Boston Red Sox +104
The Boston Red Sox are an underdog Saturday and I’ll take full advantage. Rarely will you find this team as a dog all season, and at this price I can’t pass them up. Daisuke Matsuzaka is 11-3 as a road underdog of +100 to +125 since 1997. Matsuzaka gave up just 2 base runners and no earned runs in 7 innings in his last start. Ervin Santana is 0-2 with a 5.26 ERA and 1.402 WHIP this season. This Red Sox line-up should have their way with Santana tonight. The Red Sox are 5-0 in their last 5 vs. a team with a winning record. Boston is 21-8 in Matsuzaka’s last 29 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance. The Red Sox are 25-12 in Matsuzaka’s last 37 road starts. The Angels are 9-20 in their last 29 vs. American League East opponents. The Red Sox are 11-1 in their last 12 meetings with the Angels, and the Red Sox are 5-0 in their last 5 meetings in Los Angeles. Take Boston Saturday. -Jack Jones

Pick: Phillies vs. Padres Under 7
The Philadelphia Phillies and San Diego Padres square off for the third game of their four-game weekend set on Saturday night with the first pitch set for 8:35PM EST. Philadelphia averages 4.3 runs per game on the road with a batting average of .250 and an OBP of just .300. They are 2-5 Under their last seven games overall. Over their last ten games their batting average has fallen below .225 and that is key because it triggers a system that tells us to Play Under on MLB teams where the total is 7 to 8.5 with a team batting .225 or worse over their last ten games facing an opponent who is batting .240 or worse over their last fifteen games. These games have gone Under at a rate of 97-47 the last five seasons racking up over 43 units of profit in the process. San Diego is averaging a mere 2.6 runs per game when playing at home this season with a batting average of .207 and an OBP of .301. They have also averaged .225 or worse over their last ten contests and this qualifies the Padres in a system that tells us to Play Under on MLB teams with a total in this range batting .225 or worse over their last ten game facing a starter whose ERA is 7.00 or worse over his last three outings. Playing Under in this situation has produced a record of 52-15 Under including a perfect 3-0 Under already this season. Philadelphia is 31-16 Under versus an NL team with a team batting average of .250 or worse over the last 2 seasons and 46-25 Under versus teams averaging 0.75 or less homeruns per game over the last 3 seasons. The Phillies are 37-19 Under after batting .240 or worse over a 10 game span the last 2 seasons. San Diego is 13-3 Under versus an NL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.550 to 1.650 the last 3 seasons. San Diego starter Tim Stauffer is 9-1 Under versus teams averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game over the last 2 seasons. Stauffer is 8-0 Under when the money line is +125 to -125 the last 2 seasons. Stauffer is 18-7 Under in all games the last 3 seasons and 15-4 Under when the total is 7 to 8.5 the last 3 seasons. San Diego is 17-4 Under when playing with a day off the last 2 seasons. With significant technical support for the Under we will play this one to fall below the posted total. -Robbie Gainous (Handicapperspicks.com)

Teams that are clearly heading in the opposite direction right now do battle in the AL East for the second game of a three game set, as the Tampa Bay Rays and Boston Red Sox wage MLB betting warfare against each other on Wednesday night.
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The Red Sox hung on for an 8-5 victory on Tuesday night to stretch out their lead over Tampa Bay in the AL Wild Card race to a pair of games. Boston is currently just a game behind the New York Yankees in the AL East, while the Rays are three back.

Tampa Bay Rays (44-32, -$354) vs. Boston Red Sox (47-31, +$671)
Game Date/Time: Wednesday, June 30th, 7:10 ET
Game Location: Fenway Park, Boston, MA
TV/Radio Broadcast: Sun Sports, MASN, XM

MLB Odds: Tampa Bay Rays -103 (Matt Garza – R) vs. Boston Red Sox -117 (Daisuke Matsuzaka – R): Total Over/Under 9.5

RHP Matt Garza badly needs to return to the form that he had two years ago when he was named the MVP of the ALCS against these Red Sox in order to pitch the Rays to victory tonight. Since seeing these Red Sox back on May 26th, Garza has watched his ERA balloon from 2.37 all the way up to the 4.10 that it sits at as we speak. Yes, his 8-5 record does match his win total from a year ago and is only three shy of his 11-9 season the year that Tampa Bay went to the World Series, but Garza will be the first to tell you that these aren’t acceptable numbers. He has allowed 13 homers in his 15 starts this year, which is on a pace to destroy the 25 home runs he gave up in all of ’09. Three of those bombs came in his last start against Boston.

RHP Daisuke Matsuzaka, on the other hand, has been pitching out of his mind since that same point in May. Dice-K has only allowed six earned runs over his last 32.1 innings of work, which has dropped his ERA down to 4.50 from the 7.89 it was at in the middle of May. The righty is 2-4 with a 4.05 ERA in his career against Tampa Bay, but comes into this game with a 5-2 mark in his nine starts overall this year.

MLB Insider Tip: Tampa Bay is a woeful 20-54 in its L/74 trips to Fenway Park, and even though history is starting to right itself with that trend, there is no doubt that it is still worth noting.

It doesn’t matter how many injuries the Red Sox seem to incur. They always seem to find a way to keep firing back and winning games. Tampa Bay is clearly on the wrong side of a lot of close decisions right now, and we wouldn’t be surprised to see yet another close game go against it in Beantown on Wednesday night.
Stick with the Sox in MLB betting action on Hump Day.

My MLB Prediction: Boston Red Sox (Matsuzaka)
Source: BetUS Locker Room Featured on: Handicapperspicks.com

If you look at baseball betting as if it were the stock market, here’s a look at what we’re buying and selling through another week of play on the diamond.

Bullish Squads
Boston Red Sox (6-2, +$586) – Don’t look now, but here come the Red Sox. Manager Terry Francona’s team is finally starting to get some semblance of a pitching staff together, as his team used great efforts by RHP Daisuke Matsuzaka and RHP Tim Wakefield to take care of the Phillies over the weekend in Interleague play. Now, Boston did something that it couldn’t do once during a long series at home earlier this year: It beat the Tampa Bay Rays on Monday night at Tropicana Field.

Tampa Bay Rays (6-2, +$361) – Tampa Bay’s pitching staff showed some chinks in armor over these L/2 days of MLB betting action, as RHP Wade Davis was lit up for six runs on Monday, and LHP David Price was knocked around for five on Sunday. However, the offense is still clicking on all cylinders for the Rays, who have outscored their opponents by nearly as many runs this year as they did in the entire 2008 regular season, the year that they went to the World Series.

Bearish Squads
Cleveland Indians (1-7, -$657) – The Tribe have fallen a game behind the Kansas City Royals for dead last in the AL Central standings, and even though manager Manny Acta is in his first year on the job, one has to wonder whether or not he is going to survive this miserable season or not. The Indians rank 26th in offense, averaging just 3.77 runs per game, which is awful news for a pitching staff that ranks 21st in the bigs in ERA.

New York Yankees (2-5, -$552) – When the Red Sox and Rays are bullish, and the Yankees are bearish, the Steinbrenner family isn’t going to be chalk full of happy campers. New York has slipped to 5.5 games behind Tampa Bay for first place in the AL East, and it is only hanging on to the Wild Card position by a slender half game over Toronto heading into Tuesday’s action. LHP CC Sabathia had better avoid more miserable outings like the one he had on Sunday night against the Mets, or the Bronx will be burning in a hurry.

Player to Buy – Edwin Encarnacion, Toronto Blue Jays (.333 BA, 6 HRs, 11 RBIs): Encarnacion has been tearing the cover off of the baseball lately. He only has seven hits in his L/21 ABs, but six of those have flown out of the park. The suddenly surging third baseman has helped give Toronto an MLB best 76 home runs this year, and if he and his teammates can keep this up, the Jays are going to be an MLB betting fanatic’s dream for the rest of the season.

Players to Sell – Mark Teixeira, New York Yankees (.120 BA, 8 Ks): Teixeira is historically a slow starter, but this is getting a wee ridiculous. Last week, Tex only batted 3/25, didn’t have an extra base hit, didn’t drive in a single run, and tied with his teammate 3B Alex Rodriguez for the sixth most strikeouts by any batter with eight. Slugging .120 isn’t going to cut it in Yankee Stadium, and Teixeira is a big part of this skid that has seen the men in pinstripes drop five out of seven.