New York Knicks vs. Indiana Pacers
Free Pick: New York Knicks +10 (Black Widow)
Inflated line here with the odds makers giving the Indiana Pacers way too much respect. Hard to believe Indiana could be favored by double-digits tonight against the Knicks considering the Pacers are just 29-48 this season. Indiana has been playing well lately, but they don’t have many wins against playoff teams during their run. And they have not fared well against the Knicks. New York is 4-1 SU in their last 5 meetings with Indiana, winning by 43, 7, 4 and 9 points. The Knicks are 26-11 ATS (+13.9 Units) in a road game where the total is greater than or equal to 210 over the last 2 seasons. The Knicks are 33-14 ATS (+17.6 Units) when playing their 3rd game in 4 days over the last 2 seasons. Playing on little rest has not hurt this team one bit, and they have a lot of confidence following their overtime win against the celtics last night. Take New York and the points.
Denver Nuggets vs. Oklahoma City Thunder
Free Pick: Under 211 Points (Jimmy Boyd)
The Nuggets aren’t the same high scoring team on the road. In fact, the Nuggets have been held under the century mark in their last 4 road games. Plus, OKC has proven to be a quality defensive team on its home floor, holding its opponents to only 95.9 points on the season. The last time these two teams faced off, the Thunder gave up 119 points to the Nuggets in a 29-point loss. In addition, they gave up 140 points in a defeat to Utah last night. With these two games in mind, I expect OKC to really tighten the screws on the defensive end and to be careful not to get into a track meet. History is certainly on our side here as home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210, revenging a loss to an opponent of 10 points or more, off a road loss, are 82-40 Under since 1996. Lastly, Denver is 23-10 Under in road games where the total is greater than or equal to 200 this season. Bet the Under tonight.
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Portland Trailblazers vs. Denver Nuggets
Prediction: Portland +5 (April 1st 2010 – Black Widow)
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Denver just hasn’t been the same team without George Karl on the sidelines. They don’t have the same intensity, and they aren’t able to make the proper adjustments to put themselves in a good position to win. As a result, Denver is 0-8-1 ATS in their last 9 games overall, losing 6 of those games. Portland is 9-1 in their last 10 games overall, with their only loss coming by 6 points at Phoenix. This is a hot team that is hitting on all cylinders right now as we near the end of the season. They were allowed to rest their starters in the fourth quarter in last night’s 118-90 win over the New York Knicks, so the Blazers will be fresh tonight even though this is the second of a back-to-back. Denver is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) after playing 3 consecutive road games this season. Portland is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) after scoring 110 points or more this season. Portland is a superb 23-12 ATS in all road games this season. Better yet, the Blazers are 14-3 ATS (+10.7 Units) when playing on back-to-back days this season. So little rest has not effected this team one bit as they can go deep off the bench and they are in excellent shape. Take the Blazers and the points.
Denver Nuggets vs. Memphis Grizzlies
Free Pick: Under 214 (March 13th 2010 – Jeff Alexander)
Denver isn’t nearly the same offensive juggernaut on the road that it is at home. In fact, the Nuggets are averaging just 102.6 ppg on the road, 5 points below their season average. And Memphis is only scoring 100.7 ppg at home. With this in mind, I’d say we’re getting some pretty good value with the Under with this line. The Under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in Memphis and 7-2 in the last 9 meetings overall. The Under is also 4-0 in the Nuggets’ last 4 road games and 20-6 in the Grizzlies’ last 26 games as a home underdog of 4.5 or fewer points. We’ll take the Under.
Richmond vs. Xavier
Free Pick: Xavier -4 (March 13th 2010 – Big Al McMordie)
At 3:25 pm, our complimentary selection is on the Xavier Musketeers minus the points over Richmond. No other conference tournament in the country has gone as much to the Favorites, as the Atlantic 10 Tournament. This year, the “chalk” is a modest 4-3, but dating back 20 seasons, the Atlantic 10 Tourney has seen favorites go 99-37 ATS when laying less than 13 points if their opponent is not off a win by more than 13 points. This afternoon, Xavier is favored over Richmond, who won its last game by just five points, so let’s lay the small number with the Musketeers on Saturday. Good luck, as always…Big Al McMordie.
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Detroit Pistons vs. Denver Nuggets
Free Pick: Detroit +10.5 (February 26th 2010 – Jimmy the Moose)
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The Pistons are having another season to forget and the end of the year can’t come soon enough for this club. Tonight they face a Nuggets team that they have had success against and they are hoping that trend continues tonight. There aren’t many stats that support the Pistons in most games that they play but look for them to keep tonight’s game closer than the line would indicate. Detroit is 7-20 SU on the road but 11-15-1 ATS. Detroit has covered the line in 2 of their last 3 games coming into this one.
Denver was on the road to face the Golden State Warriors on Thursday night and will be the more tired of the two clubs tonight. The Nuggets are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 8 games played with 0-day rest between action. Denver is 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400. In their last 17 games vs. a team with a SU losing record they are 3-13-1 ATS. The Nuggets are 7-17-1 ATS in their last 25 games as a favorite.
There is no doubt that the Nuggets are the better team by far in this one but look for them to play down to their competition tonight. The Pistons are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 trips to Denver. In the last 16 meetings overall between the clubs the Nuggets are 3-13 ATS. Look for the trend to continue as the Pistons cover the line again tonight.
