MLB Picks: July 15th 2011
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Pick: Indians vs. Orioles Under 9
With the O/U line currently having climbed from 8.5 to nine (at some shops) I believe we’re getting some solid value with the “under.” Tomlin gets the call for the Tribe. He’s got a stingy 3.15 ERA with an excellent 0.85 WHIP his last three starts. Each of those was of the “quality” variety. He hasn’t beaten himself. Over those three starts, he walked just two – striking out 11. Note that the last two of those games finished with exactly nine combined runs – emphasizing the importance of getting nine rather than 8.5 here. Note that Tomlin was tough against Baltimore back in the spring. In six innings, he allowed only two runs. Admittedly, Arrieta hasn’t been quite as good as Tomlin. However, after four straight road starts, he should be thrilled to finally pitch at home again. In his last start here, he tossed seven shutout innings vs. Tampa. In fact, six of his last seven home starts, including three straight, have been of the “quality” variety. He’s been excellent in seven of nine starts here, while struggling in the other two. The O’s have seen the “under” go a lucrative 34-17-1 the past few seasons, when playing a home game where the line ranged from +100 to -125. Assuming you can get nine, consider a play on the Under. -Ben Burns
Pick: New York Mets +101
Doc’s Sports COMP Pick: Take #954 Ny Mets over Philadelphia (7:10pm est): I love to bet against rookie pitchers on the road, especially in highly intense divisional match-up like we have here in this one. Phillies starter Vance Worley has done a really good job so far in his short stretch of games in the Philadelphia starting rotation but keep in mind his last four good starts, three of them came against the light hitting Marlins, A’s and Mariners. Things don’t get much easier than pitching against that trio of offenses. In those four games Worley didn’t manage to go above a 2-1 ratio of strikeouts to walks either, which shows he was far from dominating on the hill. The Mets counter with knuckle ball pitcher R.A Dickey in this one. Dickey started the season off a little slow but has been very strong since May 20th. In those last ten starts Dickey has posted an ERA of 2.41 and has been even more impressive at home with an ERA of under 2.00 during this time. The Mets are 8-3 in Dickey’s last 11 home starts versus teams with winning records like the Phillies bring into this game tonight. Overall the Mets have won four straight games with Dickey on the hill. Big game for the Mets here as they have to decide soon if they are going to play for this season or pack it up and trade off their key pieces to build a better team for the future. This series may go a long way in deciding all of that. Overall the Mets rank higher than Philadelphia in hitting and have the better pitcher on the mound in this one. Both of those things combined with playing at home as an underdog makes them way too good to pass up on here. Take the Mets in this one. -Doc’s Sports
Pick: San Francisco Giants -133
This is a very decent price to get Tim Lincecum and the San Francisco Giants at Friday. Lincecum is having yet another tremendous season, going 7-7 with a 3.06 ERA and 1.200 WHIP with 132 strikeouts in 123 1/3 innings. Lincecum has pitched his best on the road, going 4-4 with a 2.53 ERA and 1.182 WHIP in 10 starts. He’ll be up against Dustin Moseley, who is 1-4 with a 3.83 ERA and 1.383 WHIP in eight home starts this year for San Diego. Lincecum is 6-4 with a 2.20 ERA in 15 lifetime starts versus San Diego. The Giants have won three straight and five of six overall to sit atop the NL West division at 53-40. San Diego has lost six straight, and they’ve scored a combined 4 runs in their last five games overall. The Padres are hitting .217 and scoring 2.7 runs/game at home this year. Moseley is 2-13 (-10.6 Units) against the money line as an underdog of +100 or higher over the last 2 seasons. Take the Giants on the Money Line. -Black Widow (Handicapperspicks.com)
Washington Wizards vs. Orlando Magic
Free Pick: Over 194 Points (April 7th 2010 – Doc’s Sports)
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The Wizards have been playing some pretty good defense lately but we think they run into a buzzsaw tonight in Orlando and we see the Magic having a great offensive night tonight – good enough to pass this total mostly on the strength of their own offense. This is the third game in four nights for Washington and we just don’t see them putting up much defensive resistance tonight. Orlando has had two nights off and we think they shoot the lights out tonight. This team averages 104 PPG at home and we think they can do even better than that tonight. While some teams like to slow the pace down once they have a big lead Orlando is not shy about jacking up threes every time down the court when they are up by 20 in the fourth quarter. The Wizards have played pretty well offensively their last couple games, even though those games were against inferior defenses, but it is not out of the realm of possibility that they can score here tonight. But we think Orlando gets in the 110 range tonight with the Wizards making up the difference to get this one over the posted number.
Utah Jazz vs. Los Angeles Lakers
Free Pick: Under 204.5 (April 2nd 2010 – Doc’s Sports Picks)
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Six straight meetings in this series have gone under the posted number. Not one of three meetings this season has gone over 200. Utah has been scoring a lot of points lately but they have had a ridiculous schedule lately that has seen them play the worst defensive teams in the NBA over and over. They have played only one good defensive club in their last 10 games. The Lakers are a Top 10 defense and this team will really look to bring the defensive intensity at home after three straight poor defensive showings on the road. This team plays very stout defense at home and they allow just 95 PPG, on average, on this court. This is a big game for both teams and we think the defensive intensity will be ramped up on both sides, and both of these teams can play good defense and we just don’t see this one being a barnburner, especially looking at the results of the last few meetings. The under is 7-2 in the Lakers last nine home games and 13-6 in their last 19 games as a listed favorite.
New York Knicks vs. Portland Trailblazers
Free Pick: Over 200 (March 31st 2010 – Doc’s Sports)
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Free NBA Pick for Wednesday from Doc’s Sports (15-7 current run and 33-17 long-term run and Doc’s has three strong plays on the board for Wednesday, including a 5-Unit NBA Totals Game of the Week as they look to extend their 10-2 NBA totals run) – #525 Take New York/Portland OVER 200 (10 p.m. EST, Wednesday) The Knicks have really been pushing the pace lately and we just think that the sky is the limit on how many points Portland can score tonight. The Knicks have allowed an average of 109 PPG in their last five contests and none of those games went into OT, as one might expect with defensive numbers that bad. Although not the most explosive offensive team in the league, the Blazers do average 98 PPG at home and they have shown the ability to score well against tempo-pushing, bad defensive clubs. We expect them to have a really good night offensively and we think the Knicks will be able to put up some points tonight and we would probably lean towards them on the line too since we think they should get close to 100 as well. When the Knicks play the Western Conference the totals always tend to be high and 10 of their last 14 meetings with Western Conference teams have gone over the posted number.
Miami Heat vs. Milwaukee Bucks
Free Pick: Milwaukee -2.5 (March 26th 2010 – Doc’s Sports)
Confidence in the Bucks for bettors is at a low point right now after this team laid an egg against a really bad Philadelphia team last time out on this same court. The Bucks were favored by 10 in that game but lost by 15. And then Miami goes to Chicago last night and blows out the Bulls that were favored and that many public bettors were behind. So the general consensus is that Miami will roll tonight. But if you have followed our plays you know we don’t follow the public sentiment. This Bucks team deserves a bad game every now and then but this team has played its best lately against playoff competition and this squad has been playing some of the best defense in the NBA, which will give you a chance to win every night, even when your offense is not clicking. Miami comes into this game on a back-to-back and they are just 6-9 ATS in these situations this season. Andrew Bogut for the Bucks was a late scratch and will miss this game but we think that this team will rise up in his absence and that the home crowd will push this team through. Milwaukee has won and covered three straight in this series and we think they have the Heat’s number again tonight.
Detroit Pistons vs. New Jersey Nets
Free Pick: Detroit +1.5 (March 26th 2010 – Big Al McMordie)
At 8:05 pm, our complimentary selection is on the Detroit Pistons + over the New Jersey Nets. With KiKi Vandeweghe’s men closing in (possibly) on the worst season record in NBA history, it’s awfully hard to back them as a favorite — even against this dreadful Detroit Piston club. New Jersey did win its last game, 93-79 vs Sacramento, but dating back 20 years, NBA teams with a win percentage less than .300 off a win in the last 24 games of the season, are a poor 56-112 (33% ATS) at home. Take the Pistons on Friday night. Good luck, as always…Big Al McMordie.
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Philadelphia 76ers vs. Milwaukee Bucks
Free Pick: Under 191 (March 24th 2010 – Doc’s Sports)
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Well, what do we have here? We have a team that has been playing some of the best defense in the NBA at home against a team that has been really struggling to score. The Bucks average 96 PPG allowed at home on the season but even that number can be misleading because this team has been playing the best defense of the season over the last month or so. Philly has failed to get out of the 80s in four of their last eight games and they have reached the Century Mark just once during that span. This team has some playmakers banged up right now and they weren’t very good offensively to begin with. We really feel like this team may struggle to get out of the 80s again tonight. Even if Milwaukee gets their share of points we have a hard time believing this one will get over 190. We had this number pegged at 188 and we would have leaned towards the under at that number as well. The under is 7-3 in Milwaukee’s last 10 overall, and with some of the shrinking totals they have faced that is a real testament to the defense this team is playing.
