College Basketball Picks: January 19th 2012
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Pick: Vanderbilt Commodores +6.5
The Commodores of Vanderbilt invade the Capstone on Thursday night for an SEC battle against the host Alabama Crimson Tide. The Tide enter tonight’s contest off a loss at Mississippi State 56 to 52 as a 1.5-point conference road favorite. That loss ended the Tide’s 5-0 winning streak. Alabama is 7-1 SU at home this season but only 1-3 against the spread. They are averaging 68.7 points per game on their home floor while allowing 53.6 points per game. When the Tide has faced conference foes, we see their scoring drop 3.7 points per game compared to their home numbers and they allow more points per game during conference play as we see 2.4 points per game average increase for their opponents. Vanderbilt comes into tonight’s game riding a seven-game winning streak with a 3-2 against the spread mark over that span. The Commodores defeated Georgia their last time out 77 to 66 but failing to cover the thirteen-point spread. Vandy has posted a record of 3-0 SU in conference play this season covering the spread in two of those three games. During their seven-game winning streak, they have won by an average margin of almost twenty-points per game with 19.1 points per game advantage.

Vanderbilt’s big man Festus Ezeli appears to be back in decent health while Jeffery Taylor and John Jenkins have been strong during conference play so far this season. Taylor has averaged fifty-seven percent from the field and just over fourteen-points per game during SEC play. Jenkins has been lighting up SEC foes from behind the arc shooting forty-four percent and just over sixteen points per game. This type of offensive firepower should cause problems for a group of pachyderms that cannot seem to find the basket this season struggling with 66 points per game, which is good enough for 209 in the nation. Do not look for the trey to be an answer either as the Tide has struggled from behind the arc for almost a decade shooting just over twenty-seven percent. Vanderbilt is 11-2 ATS in road games over the last 2 seasons and 12-3 ATS as a road underdog or pick. Our TPR Index projects a point advantage of just 1.34-points in tonight’s game. The Math Model has a point differential of 2.06-points, which favors the Commodores. Add it all up and you have a play on the underdog in the Vanderbilt-Alabama contest on Thursday evening. PROJECTED FORECAST: 2* Vanderbilt Commodores 71 Alabama Crimson Tide 69 -Robbie Gainous

Pick: Duke Blue Devils -22.5
On Thursday the free NCAAB Play is on the Duke Blue Devils. Game 542 at 7:00 eastern. Duke has been a machine against Wake Forest going 22-5 straight up and 20-7 ats against them since 1997. Over the last 12 years here at home they are 12-0 straight up and against the spread. They are also 11-0 straight up and ats in all games at home when the total is 145 to 149.5. Even as a home favorite in this high range they are profitable going 49-0 and 31-16 to the spread. Wake Forest is a dismal 0-25 straight up and 7-17 ats as a road dog of 12.5 or more and 1-7 ats on the road when the total is 145 to 149.5. Look for Duke to coast to an easy win and cover here tonight. On Thursday I have a Triple pack. The NHL Total of the Month, WAC Conference game of the Month + an NBA System Side. Jump on and cash out on Thursday. For the free play take the Duke Blue Devils. -Rob Vinciletti

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Sweet Sixteen Picks: March 24th 2011
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Pick: BYU vs. Florida over 149
These two teams met in last season’s NCAA Tournament with BYU surprising the Gators 99 to 92 in double-overtime in a first-round matchup. BYU’s star Jimmer Fredette put thirty-seven points on the Gators in that win. Florida’s defensive star, Kenny Boynton injured his ankle late in the game versus UCLA but Gator’s head coach Billy Donavan expects him to play tonight. It could be a big night for Fredette if Boynton does not do a better job against him this time around. Both BYU and Florida have faced UCLA this season, that is there only common opponent with the Gators winning 73 to 65 while the Cougars fell 86 to 79 with both games going Over the posted total. BYU is 12-8 Over on the road this season and Florida is 11-6 Over when playing away from Gainesville. The Cougars coming off an ATS win in their last game now playing on the road has gone Over at a rate of 13-1, as an underdog in the same situation they have gone 15-1 Over their last 16 times to post. Florida when coming off two wins now playing against a non-conference opponent in this price range has gone a perfect 6-0 Over. A check of our systems database reveals a pair of powerful league-wide situations that both point to this game sailing Over the posted total. Play OVER on CBB teams off a straight up win and going Over in their last two games now installed as a favorite in this price range, 41-14 Over. Play OVER on CBB teams off two games where they covered the spread and the games went Over the total and now play as a favorite in this price range, 23-7 Over their last thirty in this situation. We will make the call here for this one to go Over the posted total as both teams score the ball in the Big Easy.

Pick: Duke -8.5
At 9:45 pm, our complimentary selection is on the Duke Blue Devils minus the points over Arizona. In its last game, Arizona was a 5-point dog to the Texas Longhorns, and benefited from a horrible call by the ref, who had a quick trigger on his five-second count, which prevented a Texas timeout, and turned the ball over to the Wildcats, who proceeded to score the go-ahead bucket. Unfortunately for the Wildcats, underdogs priced from +7 to +16 points are a horrid 5-22 ATS in the 2nd and 3rd rounds of the Tournament, if they’re off an upset win as a 2-point or greater underdog, and their opponent is off a pointspread loss. With Duke, indeed, off an ATS loss last week vs. the Michigan Wolverines, we’ll play on Mike Krzyzewski’s men on Thursday. Take the Blue Devils. Good luck, as always…Al McMordie. And don’t miss our top 2 plays today out of 23-2 and 50-10 angles. -Big Al McMordie

Pick: Florida -3
BYU is 32-4 straight up this year. The Cougars are 30-62-2 ATS their last 94 games as an underdog. The Cougars are 3-7 ATS their last 10 Big Dance games. BYU is 6-18 ATS their last 24 games off an ATS win. The Cougars are 2-8 ATS their last 10 Thursday games. BYU is 0-4 ATS off a win by more than 20 points. Florida is 28-7 straight up this year. The Gators are 6-0 ATS their last 6 NCAA Tournament games as favorites of 0.5 to 6.5 points. Florida is 7-1-1 ATS their last 9 games overall. The Gators are 15-7 ATS on Thursday and they are 5-0 ATS their last 5 Non-Conference games. The Gators are 5-1 ATS their 6 games on a neutral court. PLAY ON FLORIDA -Tom Freese (Handicapperspicks.com)

No. 5 Arizona (29-7) vs No. 1 Duke (32-4)
Pick: Duke (March 24th 2011 – Sweet Sixteen)
Important Note: The selection above is a “straight-up” pick. If you are looking for “against-the-spread” betting picks or over/under picks..please visit our premium picks page.

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Statistical Advantages: Points Per Game: Duke, Field Goal Percentage: Duke, Free Throw Percentage: Duke, Defense: Duke, Rebounding: Duke, Turnovers: Duke, Bench Players: Arizona

Point Spread: The Duke Blue Devils are currently set as a 9 point favorite against the Arizona Wildcats in this 2011 Sweet Sixteen matchup.

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Hampton (24-8) vs No. 3 Duke (30-4)
Bracket Pick: Duke (March 18th 2011 – 1st Round)

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Statistical Advantages: Points Per Game: Duke, Field Goal Percentage: Duke, Free Throw Percentage: Duke, Defense: Hampton, Rebounding: Duke, Turnovers: Hampton, Bench Players: Duke

Point Spread: The Duke Blue Devils are currently set as a 22.5 point favorite against the Hampton Pirates for the 1st round of the 2011 NCAA Tournament.

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College Basketball Picks: February 20th 2011
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Pick: Wisconsin -12
As if Wednesday’s loss at Purdue isn’t enough to get Wisconsin’s blood boiling, a quick recollection of last month’s defeat at Penn State should do the trick. The Badgers have been unstoppable at home for years now, and this year has been no exception. Wisconsin is 14-0 on its home floor in 2010-11, winning these contests by an average of 19.2 points. Penn State knows the difficulties of winning at Wiscy all too well. The Nittany Lions have dropped 11 in a row on the road in this series dating back to the 1997-98 season, losing these contests by an average score of 73-55. In addition, Penn State hasn’t fared well on the road this season. It is just 1-7 when playing away from home, and it has lost its last two at Illinois and at Michigan State by an average of 17.5 points. Going back to the beginning of last season, Wisconsin is a perfect 6-0 ATS at home when out to avenge a loss to a team that held them to less than 60 points. We’ll back the Badgers in this revenge spot.

Pick: Duke -20.5
Georgia Tech, which lost by 17 at Kennesaw State, is no match for the Dukies today. The Yellow Jackets’ last road defeat came at VA Tech to the tune of 25 points. Expect Duke to hand Tech another beating. Even if the Yellow Jackets move the ball well and limit turnovers, there is a good chance they will still get blown out of the water. Consider that Duke is an impressive 6-0 ATS the last 3 seasons versus poor shooting teams making 42% or less of their shots. The Blue Devils have destroyed these foes by an average of 36.8 points. I believe the total gives us a good indication as to what the odds makers are expecting as well. Duke is 7-0 ATS in home games when the total is 145 to 149.5 over the last 2 seasons, winning these contests by an average of 31.3 points. Lastly, Georgia Tech is 0-6 ATS as an underdog of 10 or more points over the last 3 seasons. We’ll lay the points. -Jeff Alexander (Handicapperspicks.com)

Pick: Old Dominion -5
Old Dominion gets the call Sunday as a 5-point home favorite over Cleveland State in this Bracket Buster game. There is a very good chance that the winner of this game goes to the NCAA Tournament, and I’ll gladly side with the home team. ODU is 21-6 this season, and 12-2 at home where they are outscoring opponents by 11.3 PPG. Old Dominion has been playing some of the best defense in the nation this year, giving up 57.8 PPG overall and 55.1 PPG on 39% shooting at home. Cleveland State is 0-6 ATS in road games after having won 2 of their last 3 games over the last 2 seasons. Old Dominion is 8-1 ATS in home games after 3 straight games where both teams score 70 points or less over the last 3 seasons. They are winning in this spot by a whopping 20.0 PPG. Better yet, ODU is 11-1 ATS in home games after 4 straight games where both teams score 70 points or less since 1997. Cleveland State is 1-9 ATS in road games versus bad pressure defensive teams – forcing <=12 turnovers/game after 15+ games since 1997. I have no problem backing a team like ODU who plays sound defense for 40 minutes. Bet Old Dominion Sunday.

DUKE BLUE DEVILS VS. NC STATE WOLFPACK
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NCAA Basketball Betting Trends:
Blue Devils are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a road favorite of 7.0-12.5.
Blue Devils are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
Wolfpack are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
Wolfpack are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games as an underdog.
Over is 5-2 in Blue Devils last 7 Wednesday games.
Under is 9-4 in Blue Devils last 13 games as a favorite of 7.0-12.5.
Under is 8-3 in Wolfpack last 11 home games.
Under is 5-2 in Wolfpack last 7 games following a ATS loss.

Head-to-Head Betting Trends
Over is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings in N.C. State.
Over is 9-1 in the last 10 meetings.
Blue Devils are 1-4 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
Underdog is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
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