MLB Baseball Picks: July 16th 2011
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MLB Pick: St. Louis Cardinals -120
Cardinals -116 (1.5* FREE PLAY) We back Carpenter on our last two 5.5* max plays and he sure paid off in a big way and we will look to back him here once again. Take out his poor start last time here in Cincinnati and he has dominated the Reds. Reds hitters collectively have a .218 average and a .615 OPS. Don’t think Carpenter who is hot right now with a 1.96 ERA over his last 3 starts does not remember his last trip to Cinci where he gave up 7 ER. He’s 8-2 in his last 10 vs. the Reds with every other start he’s given up 2 ER or less. I expect the same out of him on Saturday. After all he pitches big within the division the Cardinals are 60-29 vs. NL Central in his last 89 starts. Reds are just 4-10 in their last 14 vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.30. Bronson Arroyo makes the start for the Reds and he is clearly at a disadvantage going up against the Cardinals. In his last 5 starts he has given up 22 ER over 27.2 IP while giving up 34 hits and 12 walks that’s a WHIP of 1.66 and an ERA of 7.16. Cardinal hitters are hitting .276 with a .820 OPS in 322 AB vs. Arroyo. Arroyo really has not been solid at home posting a 3-6 record and 5.34 ERA. He is just 6-15 in his last 21 Saturday’s so either he just has bad luck on Saturday’s or he is out partying on Fridays. Either way the Cardinals are a better team vs. RHP. Ranked #4 in OPS with a .765 vs. the Reds who are 19th with a .709. -Freddy Wills

MLB Pick: Pirates vs. Astros Under 7.5
Here we have two of the lower scoring teams in Major League Baseball squaring off against one of each team’s more effective pitchers. I’ll play the total under as this game should be a pitchers duel from the start. The only thing keeping this pick from being a premium one is the fact that Houston’s bullpen has been so awful this year (10 saves vs 17 blown saves), but Pittsburgh’s offense still has me leaning hard on this total. Offensively both teams are averaging just 3.9 runs per game. Then take into account that Houston starter Bud Norris has pitched extremely well at home this year. Through 11 starts at home he’s posted a 2.66 ERA and 1.18 WHIP. Meanwhile, Pittsburgh’s Paul Maholm has been one of their most effective pitchers this season. He’s started 19 games for the Pirates, earning a 2.96 ERA and 1.18 WHIP in those starts. Now, he hasn’t thrown great on the road (4.35 ERA, 1.28 WHIP), but the fact that his WHIP isn’t too much higher than his season number tells me he’s had some bad luck as the visiting starter. Maholm has also pitched like an ace over his last 3 outings, posting a 1.74 ERA, which includes a game vs the Astros in which he gave up just one earned runs on 5 hits over 6 innings of work. -Jimmy Boyd

MLB Pick: San Francisco Giants +120
Last season, the roles between the Padres and Giants were reversed. MLB fans watched as the Giants climbed the NL West standings to take the division and knock the Padres out of the playoff race. This season, the standings tell a much different story. The defending World Series champion Giants lead the NL West and the Padres are dwelling in the cellar. Judging by the scores the Padres have been putting up as of late, it is doubtful that we will see them play the role of spoiler. Plus with the Giants closer’s confidence back, they could now try and defend their NL West title. As for the Padres Saturday they’ll send Dustin Moseley to the mound in the hopes that Moseley can get back on the winning track. Moseley is 2-8 on the season with a 3.21 ERA. He is 1-4 in his last 10 starts and usually starts falling apart around the fifth inning. The Giants counter with Zeto. It’s tempting to entertain the thought that Zito has recaptured that 2002 form. After a pair of trips to the disabled list, he returned in early July with a pair of solid starts that brought his season totals to a 3-1 record, 3.18 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, and 17/12 K/BB ratio through 34 innings. The Giants are 5-1 in their last 6 road games with the total set at 6.5 or lower, and are 5-1 in their last 6 overall, and are 4-0 in Zitos last 4 starts. I just don’t think the Padres have the punch to keep up in this game. -Ray Monohan (Handicapperspicks.com)