Sacramento Kings vs. Minnesota Timberwolves
Free Pick: Sacramento +2.5 (March 31st 2010 – Jack Jones)
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The Minnesota Timberwolves have lost 16 straight games, and should not be favored over Sacramento Wednesday. “Just go out there and continue to play hard,” Kevin Love said following Tuesday’s practice. “It seems like I say the same thing every time but that’s really it. Keep your head up, keep battling, bite your lip, grit your teeth, just go out there and get it done.” Well if they keep saying it all the time, and they aren’t getting the job done, then this is a clear sign that the Timberwolves don’t have what it takes mentally to go out there and get it done. It’s also a sign that they just continue going through the motions, knowing that this is a lost season. Tyreke Evans returned to the line-up last night for the Sacramento Kings and this is a completely different team with him out on the floor, running the show. Evans had 29 points, 11 assists and 9 rebounds in a 114-100 win over the Timberwolves earlier this month. He has to be licking his chops at another chance to play Minnesota tonight as he looks to cement his spot as the Rookie of the Year. Sacramento has won 5 of the last 6 meetings in this series. Minnesota is 5-21 ATS versus teams who average 7 or less steals/game on the season this season, losing in these spots by 15.4 PPG. Take the Kings.
Washington Wizards vs. Houston Rockets
Free NBA Pick: Washington +7 (March 30th 2010 – Jack Jones)
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Houston is deflated right now, knowing that their chance of making the postseason have gone out the window. Washington is obviously struggling right now, but it’s not like they haven’t been competitive during their dreadful 15-game losing streak. Usually a road team that has lost 15 straight would be a heavier underdog than 7 points to a team with a .500 record like Houston. This is a trap, and we’re not biting as we’ll side with the underdog Wizards who will be much more motivated heading into this one, trying to end their skid. The Rockets are 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games overall.
This play also falls under a system that is 79-46 (63%) ATS since 1996. It tells us to bet on road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (WASHINGTON) – after 8 or more consecutive losses. These teams tend to be great to back when they get on these long losing streaks, because there becomes overwhelming value against the spread. Houston has a plethora of injuries right now as well with Shane Battier, Jared Jeffries, Kevin Martin and David Andersen all watching from the sidelines. Take the Wizards.
New Orleans Hornets vs. Los Angeles Lakers
Free Pick: Lakers -5.5 (March 29th 2010 – Jack Jones)
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The life has been sucked out of the Hornets as we near the end of the season. New Orleans knows they have no shot of making the playoffs, and they have started to quit competing on a nightly basis because of it. New Orleans is 3-12 SU & 3-12 ATS in their last 15 games overall. Chris Paul has returned, but the Hornets’ coaching staff isn’t going to push him considering there’s no need to chance re-injury when they have no chance to make the postseason. Not only is this team losing of late, but their last 6 losses have all come by double-digits. So they really haven’t even been all that competitive. The Lakers have won 8 of their last 9 games overall and they are trying to clinch the #1 seed in the Western Conference with a couple more victories. This play also falls under a system that is 50-15 (77%) over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet on road favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (LA LAKERS) – after a road game where both teams score 100 or more points, second half of the season. Bet the Lakers.
Atlanta Hawks vs. New York Knicks
Free NBA Pick: Over 208 (March 8th 2010 – Jack Jones)
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New York is 8-1 OVER in home games versus up-tempo teams averaging 83 or more shots/game this season, with an average combined score of 217.4 points/game. Atlanta is 8-1 OVER vs. poor rebounding teams – outrebounded by opponents by 3+ per game this season, with an average combined score of 217.5 points/game. New York is 17-6 OVER after allowing 110 points or more this season, with an average combined score of 216.3 points/game. Atlanta has scored 103 or more points in 5 of their last 6, while allowing 100 or more in 4 of their last 6. New York has allowed 102 or more points in 13 of their last 14 games overall.
This play also falls into a system that is 53-25 (68%) to the OVER during the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet the OVER on home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 205 (NEW YORK) – terrible defensive team – allowing 103+ points/game on the season against opponent after a loss by 6 points or less. Go with the OVER.
Free NCAA Pick: Samford +3 (Jack Jones)
It is extremely difficult to beat a team 3 times in the same season, and that’s what The Citadel is facing tonight as they take on Samford in the Southern Conference Tournament Friday. The Citadel won by 1 and 4 points, respectively, in their two meetings with Samford this season. Samford is chomping at the bit to get some payback tonight in the third meeting. This play falls into a system that is 58-21 (73%) over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet on any team (SAMFORD) – revenging 2 straight losses where team scored < 60 points against opponent off a cover where the team lost straight up as an underdog. Samford brings more energy and passion to the floor tonight. Take Samford.
Free NCAA Pick: Georgia State +6 (Rocky Atkinson)
Georgia State is 9-2 ATS since 1997 in March. Georgia State is 18-5 ATS last 3 years revenging a road loss vs an opponent. Georgia State is 6-0 ATS since 1997 in 1st round tournament games. Georgia State is 7-0 ATS since 1997 in conference tournament games. Hofstra is 1-7 ATS last 3 years when playing with 5 or 6 days rest. Georgia State is allowing only 63.6 points per game overall and 62.6 points per game on the road this year. Panthers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a ATS loss. Panthers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 neutral site games as an underdog. Panthers are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 neutral site games. Panthers are 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a SU loss. Pride are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 Friday games. Pride are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 neutral site games as a favorite. We’ll recommend a small play on Georgia State tonight! Thanks and good luck, Rocky
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Maryland vs. Duke
Free Pick: Duke -1.5 (March 3rd 2010 – Jack Jones)
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The Blue Devils have won 6 straight over Maryland, and they’ll add to this winning streak over the Terrapins Wednesday. Duke clinches the ACC with a win tonight, and we cannot see them letting this opportunity go by the way side. Duke already posted a 77-56 win over Maryland in their first meeting this season, and though that game was played at Cameron Indoor, the Terrapins simply don’t have the manpower inside to stop the Blue Devils. Duke grabbed 17 offensive rebounds in that win and 44 rebounds total. This team has scrappers in the middle, and they give guys like Scheyer, Smith and Singler extra opportunities to score at the offensive end with extra possessions. Duke is 7-0 ATS after a game committing 8 or less turnovers over the last 2 seasons. The Blue Devils have won 8 straight games, and they are clearly playing their best basketball of the season to finish, winning six of those eight contests by double-digits.
This play also falls under a system that is 24-5 (83%) over the last 5 years. It tells us to bet against home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (MARYLAND) – very good team – outscoring their opponents by 8+ points/game, in March games. Take Duke to win their seventh straight over Maryland.
Louisville vs. Marquette
Free Pick: Marquette -1 (March 2nd 2010 – Jack Jones)
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Marquette is one of the hottest teams in the Big East and they’ve come through for us a lot over the last couple weeks. The Eagles are showing solid value again tonight and we’ll take advantage as Tuesday’s free pick. Marquette is 8-1 SU & 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games overall to improve to 19-9 this season and certainly would be in the NCAA Tournament if the season were to end today. The Eagles are 12-3 at home this season, and they face a Louisville team that actually has a losing road record this year. The Cardinals are 1-8 ATS off a win against a conference rival this season. Marquette is 12-4 ATS in conference games this season. The Eagles are one of the most underrated teams in the Big East, and they are going under the radar again tonight when they should be a much heavier home favorite.
