MLB Baseball Picks: July 17th 2011
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Pick: San Diego Padres -112
I won with the Padres yesterday, as they snapped their losing streak in convincing (11-2) fashion. Today’s game doesn’t figure to be that “easy” but I feel they’ve got a solid shot at another victory. I’m a “Cain fan” and am well aware of how capable he is. However, he’s struggled his last couple of starts against the Padres, who just saw him less than two weeks ago. Cain gave up five runs in that game, taking a 5-3 loss. His previous start against San Diego came last October and he got rocked for six runs in four innings in that one. While he doesn’t have a big name like Cain, Latos is also tough. He’s got a 2.37 ERA and 0.921 WHIP vs, the Giants, who haven’t seen him last season. He’s got a solid 3.26 ERA and 1.19 WHIP his last three starts, most recently suffering a tough 1-0 loss. He allowed just five hits and one run in 7 1/3 innings of that one, so it was hardly his fault. The Giants have a much better record than the Padres overall and have been MUCH better when playing at night. However, a closer look reveals that the Padres have actually been the better team during the afternoon. In fact, the Giants are a money-burning 14-19 (-7.2) in day games while the Padres have quietly gone a highly profitable 20-14 (+10.4). Consider San Diego. -Ben Burns
Pick: Boston Red Sox -138
I’ll side with the Boston Red Sox Sunday night due to the huge edge they have on the mound. Josh Beckett is 8-3 with a 2.27 ERA and 0.946 WHIP in 17 starts this season for the Red sox. He has been one of the most dominant starters in the game now that he is healthy in 2011. Jeff Niemann is 4-4 with a 4.53 ERA and 1.416 WHIP in 10 starts for Tampa Bay, including 1-3 with a 5.53 ERA and 1.590 WHIP in five home outings. Beckett is 9-4 with a 3.65 ERA and 1.094 WHIP in 19 career starts against Tampa. Niemann is 2-2 with a 6.62 ERA and 1.811 WHIP in four career starts against Boston. The Red Sox are 8-1 in their last 9 games as a road favorite of -110 to -150. Boston is 21-5 in their last 26 during game 3 of a series. The Rays are 0-4 in Niemann’s last four starts as a home underdog. The Red Sox have won 39 of their last 55 games overall. Take Boston Sunday. -Jack Jones (Handicapperspicks.com)
Sacramento Kings vs. Minnesota Timberwolves
Free Pick: Sacramento +2.5 (March 31st 2010 – Jack Jones)
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The Minnesota Timberwolves have lost 16 straight games, and should not be favored over Sacramento Wednesday. “Just go out there and continue to play hard,” Kevin Love said following Tuesday’s practice. “It seems like I say the same thing every time but that’s really it. Keep your head up, keep battling, bite your lip, grit your teeth, just go out there and get it done.” Well if they keep saying it all the time, and they aren’t getting the job done, then this is a clear sign that the Timberwolves don’t have what it takes mentally to go out there and get it done. It’s also a sign that they just continue going through the motions, knowing that this is a lost season. Tyreke Evans returned to the line-up last night for the Sacramento Kings and this is a completely different team with him out on the floor, running the show. Evans had 29 points, 11 assists and 9 rebounds in a 114-100 win over the Timberwolves earlier this month. He has to be licking his chops at another chance to play Minnesota tonight as he looks to cement his spot as the Rookie of the Year. Sacramento has won 5 of the last 6 meetings in this series. Minnesota is 5-21 ATS versus teams who average 7 or less steals/game on the season this season, losing in these spots by 15.4 PPG. Take the Kings.
Washington Wizards vs. Houston Rockets
Free NBA Pick: Washington +7 (March 30th 2010 – Jack Jones)
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Houston is deflated right now, knowing that their chance of making the postseason have gone out the window. Washington is obviously struggling right now, but it’s not like they haven’t been competitive during their dreadful 15-game losing streak. Usually a road team that has lost 15 straight would be a heavier underdog than 7 points to a team with a .500 record like Houston. This is a trap, and we’re not biting as we’ll side with the underdog Wizards who will be much more motivated heading into this one, trying to end their skid. The Rockets are 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games overall.
This play also falls under a system that is 79-46 (63%) ATS since 1996. It tells us to bet on road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (WASHINGTON) – after 8 or more consecutive losses. These teams tend to be great to back when they get on these long losing streaks, because there becomes overwhelming value against the spread. Houston has a plethora of injuries right now as well with Shane Battier, Jared Jeffries, Kevin Martin and David Andersen all watching from the sidelines. Take the Wizards.
New Orleans Hornets vs. Los Angeles Lakers
Free Pick: Lakers -5.5 (March 29th 2010 – Jack Jones)
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The life has been sucked out of the Hornets as we near the end of the season. New Orleans knows they have no shot of making the playoffs, and they have started to quit competing on a nightly basis because of it. New Orleans is 3-12 SU & 3-12 ATS in their last 15 games overall. Chris Paul has returned, but the Hornets’ coaching staff isn’t going to push him considering there’s no need to chance re-injury when they have no chance to make the postseason. Not only is this team losing of late, but their last 6 losses have all come by double-digits. So they really haven’t even been all that competitive. The Lakers have won 8 of their last 9 games overall and they are trying to clinch the #1 seed in the Western Conference with a couple more victories. This play also falls under a system that is 50-15 (77%) over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet on road favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (LA LAKERS) – after a road game where both teams score 100 or more points, second half of the season. Bet the Lakers.
Atlanta Hawks vs. New York Knicks
Free NBA Pick: Over 208 (March 8th 2010 – Jack Jones)
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New York is 8-1 OVER in home games versus up-tempo teams averaging 83 or more shots/game this season, with an average combined score of 217.4 points/game. Atlanta is 8-1 OVER vs. poor rebounding teams – outrebounded by opponents by 3+ per game this season, with an average combined score of 217.5 points/game. New York is 17-6 OVER after allowing 110 points or more this season, with an average combined score of 216.3 points/game. Atlanta has scored 103 or more points in 5 of their last 6, while allowing 100 or more in 4 of their last 6. New York has allowed 102 or more points in 13 of their last 14 games overall.
This play also falls into a system that is 53-25 (68%) to the OVER during the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet the OVER on home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 205 (NEW YORK) – terrible defensive team – allowing 103+ points/game on the season against opponent after a loss by 6 points or less. Go with the OVER.
Free NCAA Pick: Samford +3 (Jack Jones)
It is extremely difficult to beat a team 3 times in the same season, and that’s what The Citadel is facing tonight as they take on Samford in the Southern Conference Tournament Friday. The Citadel won by 1 and 4 points, respectively, in their two meetings with Samford this season. Samford is chomping at the bit to get some payback tonight in the third meeting. This play falls into a system that is 58-21 (73%) over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet on any team (SAMFORD) – revenging 2 straight losses where team scored < 60 points against opponent off a cover where the team lost straight up as an underdog. Samford brings more energy and passion to the floor tonight. Take Samford.
Free NCAA Pick: Georgia State +6 (Rocky Atkinson)
Georgia State is 9-2 ATS since 1997 in March. Georgia State is 18-5 ATS last 3 years revenging a road loss vs an opponent. Georgia State is 6-0 ATS since 1997 in 1st round tournament games. Georgia State is 7-0 ATS since 1997 in conference tournament games. Hofstra is 1-7 ATS last 3 years when playing with 5 or 6 days rest. Georgia State is allowing only 63.6 points per game overall and 62.6 points per game on the road this year. Panthers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a ATS loss. Panthers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 neutral site games as an underdog. Panthers are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 neutral site games. Panthers are 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a SU loss. Pride are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 Friday games. Pride are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 neutral site games as a favorite. We’ll recommend a small play on Georgia State tonight! Thanks and good luck, Rocky
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