Chicago Cubs vs. Atlanta Braves
Free Pick: Chicago Cubs +185 (April 8th 2010 – Jeff Alexander)
I know Tommy Hanson is a talented young starter, but so is Randy Wells. In other words, the Braves are being severely overvalued here today. Wells has had great success against the Braves, posting a 2.08 ERA and a 0.692 WHIP in 2 career starts. In addition, we can’t ignore the fact that the Cubs are 8-1 in their last 9 games as a road underdog of +151 to +200. We’ll take the Cubs showing solid value in the underdog role tonight.
Minnesota Twins vs. Los Angeles Angels
Free Pick: Los Angeles Angels -121 (April 8th 2010 – Dave Price)
After back-to-back losses to the Twins, look for the Angels to bounce back strong tonight. The Angels are 41-15 when playing with double revenge – 2 straight losses against an opponent over the last 3 seasons. They are also 21-7 after 2 or more consecutive losses over the last 2 seasons. Even though the Twins have won a couple, they are still just 3-7 in the last 10 meetings with the Angels and only 11-24 in their last 35 road meetings with the Angels. Joel Pineiro went 15-12 with a 3.49 ERA last season with St. Louis and had a solid spring with the Angels, going 4-0 with a 4.38 ERA in six starts. Look for him to begin his career with the Angels in the win column
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Denver Nuggets vs. Memphis Grizzlies
Free Pick: Under 214 (March 13th 2010 – Jeff Alexander)
Denver isn’t nearly the same offensive juggernaut on the road that it is at home. In fact, the Nuggets are averaging just 102.6 ppg on the road, 5 points below their season average. And Memphis is only scoring 100.7 ppg at home. With this in mind, I’d say we’re getting some pretty good value with the Under with this line. The Under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in Memphis and 7-2 in the last 9 meetings overall. The Under is also 4-0 in the Nuggets’ last 4 road games and 20-6 in the Grizzlies’ last 26 games as a home underdog of 4.5 or fewer points. We’ll take the Under.
Richmond vs. Xavier
Free Pick: Xavier -4 (March 13th 2010 – Big Al McMordie)
At 3:25 pm, our complimentary selection is on the Xavier Musketeers minus the points over Richmond. No other conference tournament in the country has gone as much to the Favorites, as the Atlantic 10 Tournament. This year, the “chalk” is a modest 4-3, but dating back 20 seasons, the Atlantic 10 Tourney has seen favorites go 99-37 ATS when laying less than 13 points if their opponent is not off a win by more than 13 points. This afternoon, Xavier is favored over Richmond, who won its last game by just five points, so let’s lay the small number with the Musketeers on Saturday. Good luck, as always…Big Al McMordie.
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Free NBA Pick: Sacramento Kings +8.5 (Jeff Alexander)
Not having Jason Terry and his 17 ppg will hurt the Mavs tonight against a Kings team that is playing well, having won 3 of its last 4 games SU and 4 in a row ATS. Dallas has been an extremely poor choice in the home chalk as it is only 4-21-1 ATS in its last 26 games as a home favorite. The Mavericks are also just 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400. Meanwhile, the Kings are 11-4-2 ATS in their last 17 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600 and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog of 5.0-10.5 points. Look for the Kings to keep this one within the number.
Free NBA Pick: Los Angeles Lakers -3 (Tony George)
Trends seem to reverse with NBA teams and while I like going against a team off an OT loss, I expect the Lakers to rebound tonight. They are 1-6-1 ATS their last 8 games. The mis-match at the forward position here is in favor of the Lakers and I think Bynum gets the better of Ratliff at the post, and Kobe will do his thing. He had 39 last night in a loss at Miami. LA scoring 104 ppg their last 5 games and Charlotte scoring 88 in the same timeframe. Too much offense and no doubt a pissed off bunch from LA that needs a win here on the road.
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