MLB Picks: June 17th 2011
CLICK HERE FOR TODAY’S EXPERT MLB PICKS
Pick: Minnesota Twins -126
The Twins come into Friday’s game on a roll, and should have no trouble taking down a Padres team that is just 1-5 in their last six games. The Twins should have no trouble putting up a big number offensively against Padres starter Clayton Richard, who is 2-3 with a 5.97 ERA in seven road starts this season. Richard did pitch well in his last outing, allowing just two runs on five hits over seven innings, but is just 2-10 after giving up 2 or leas earned runs in his last outing. -Info Plays
Pick: Pittsburgh Pirates +134
We’ll back the Pirates against the struggling Indians tonight. Cleveland has cooled off since its hot start, losing 16 of its last 22 overall and 8 of its last 9 at home. The Indians have even lost 6 straight series openers. Pittsburgh has won 4 in a row and finds itself in good hands with Correia stepping to the mound. He’s 7-1 with an ERA of 2.42 on the road this season. It’s also worth noting that the Pirates are 4-0 in his last 4 starts as an underdog. Meanwhile, Cleveland’s Tomlin has been absolutely shelled of late. He’s given up 18 earned runs in 17 innings spanning 3 starts. The Pirates are 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in this series. We’ll take them showing decent value tonight. -Jimmy Boyd
Pick: Colorado Rockies -120
The Detroit Tigers (38-31) have made a move of sorts on the Cleveland Indians in the AL Central winning 13 of their last 18 overall and the Rockies (33-35) have slipped below .500. Both pitchers are about even in all key stats while Colorado has a major advantage over Detroit as the Rockies have won 7 of 8 meetings played in Colorado. The Rockies who have had huge success at home are only 17-18 at home and will jump-start on that record tonight. COLORADO! -Chip Chirimbes (Handicapperspicks.com)
New York Knicks vs. Indiana Pacers
Free Pick: New York Knicks +10 (Black Widow)
Inflated line here with the odds makers giving the Indiana Pacers way too much respect. Hard to believe Indiana could be favored by double-digits tonight against the Knicks considering the Pacers are just 29-48 this season. Indiana has been playing well lately, but they don’t have many wins against playoff teams during their run. And they have not fared well against the Knicks. New York is 4-1 SU in their last 5 meetings with Indiana, winning by 43, 7, 4 and 9 points. The Knicks are 26-11 ATS (+13.9 Units) in a road game where the total is greater than or equal to 210 over the last 2 seasons. The Knicks are 33-14 ATS (+17.6 Units) when playing their 3rd game in 4 days over the last 2 seasons. Playing on little rest has not hurt this team one bit, and they have a lot of confidence following their overtime win against the celtics last night. Take New York and the points.
Denver Nuggets vs. Oklahoma City Thunder
Free Pick: Under 211 Points (Jimmy Boyd)
The Nuggets aren’t the same high scoring team on the road. In fact, the Nuggets have been held under the century mark in their last 4 road games. Plus, OKC has proven to be a quality defensive team on its home floor, holding its opponents to only 95.9 points on the season. The last time these two teams faced off, the Thunder gave up 119 points to the Nuggets in a 29-point loss. In addition, they gave up 140 points in a defeat to Utah last night. With these two games in mind, I expect OKC to really tighten the screws on the defensive end and to be careful not to get into a track meet. History is certainly on our side here as home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210, revenging a loss to an opponent of 10 points or more, off a road loss, are 82-40 Under since 1996. Lastly, Denver is 23-10 Under in road games where the total is greater than or equal to 200 this season. Bet the Under tonight.
Need more free NBA basketball predictions? Visit Handicapperspicks.com for more expert sports picks from over 30 professional sports handicappers
Milwaukee Bucks vs. Chicago Bulls
Free Pick: Milwaukee Bucks +6.5 (Jimmy Boyd)
I know the Bucks will be Andrew Bogut for the rest of the season, but I think odds makers have over figured his absence into this line. Milwaukee will be extremely motivated tonight as it can clinch a postseason berth with a win. The Bulls will be motivated to win as well, as they are trying to play their way into the No. 8 seed. With this in mind, I expect another down to the wire game from these two teams. The first three meetings this season have all been decided by 3 or fewer points. The Bucks are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games as a road underdog and 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games as a road underdog of 5.0-10.5 points. Milwaukee is also 16-4 ATS versus poor defensive teams allowing 99 or more points per game, 2nd half of the season this season, winning in these spots by an average score of 102.7 to 95.5. Not having Bogut in the playoffs will prove costly, but I expect the Bucks to rally in his absence and take the Bulls right down to the wire tonight. Bet the Bucks.
San Antonio Spurs vs. Sacramento Kings
Free Pick: San Antonio Spurs -6 (Tom Freese)
Sacramento is just playing out the string. Tyreke Evans score 20 points a game. Beno Udrih scores 12.9 points a game Center Jason Thompson scores 12.5 points and 8.3 rebounds a game. The Kings score 99.8 points a game and they allow 104.2 points a game. Sacramento is 0-6 ATS their last 6 games as home dogs and they are 2-9-1 ATS when playing with two days of rest. San Antonio is led in scoring by Center Tim Duncan and his 18.1 points and 10.8 rebounds a game. Guard Manu Ginobili scores 16.6 points a game George Hill is filling in for the injured Tony Parker. Richard Jefferson scores 12.3 points a game. The Spurs 101.2 points a game and they allow 96 points a game. San Antonio is 10-1 ATS after scoring 100 or more points in their last game and they are 9-1 ATS their last 10 games vs. Western Conference teams. PLAY ON SAN ANTONIO
Looking for more free NBA basketball picks? Visit Handicappers Picks for free sports picks from over 30 professional sports handicappers
Portland Trailblazers vs. Sacramento Kings
Free Pick: Under 194.5 (April 3rd 2010 – Jimmy Boyd)
Want more NBA predictions for April 3rd? Visit Handicappers Picks
Right away you have to like the fact that plays Under on home teams where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points, a cold team having lost 6 or 7 of its last 8 games, against a hot team having won 8 or more of its last 10 games, are 48-23 the last 5 seasons. We are seeing just 190.2 points on average in this situation. Portland has made a habit of putting the clamps on defensively against bad teams. As a result, the Blazers are 20-8 UNDER when playing against a bad team (Win Pct. 25% to 40%) in the 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons, and we are only seeing a total of 188.4 points in these spots. The Kings are 6-0-1 Under in their last 7, and the Under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in this series. The Blazers are coming off a bad loss to the Nuggets, and that plays right into our hands here as well. In fact, the Under is 5-0 in their last 5 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points. Bet the Under tonight.
West Virginia vs. Washington
Free Pick: Under 141 (March 25th 2010 – Jimmy Boyd)
Want more college basketball predictions? Visit Handicapperspicks.com
Plays Under on neutral court teams where the total is between 140 and 149.5 points, WVU in this case, after allowing 60 points or less 3 straight games, against an opponent that has scored 75 points or more 2 straight games, are 26-7 since 1997, 16-4 the last 5 seasons and 13-2 the last 3 seasons. We are only seeing 135.3 total points scored in these games on average. West Virginia’s defense has really tightened its screws, holding its last 5 opponents below 60 points. The Mountaineers have also held 5 of their last 6 opponents to below 40% shooting from the field. WVU’s defense has even succeeded against good shooting teams this season. In fact, WVU is 6-0 Under when playing away from home against good shooting teams, like Washington, who make 45% or more of their shots, after 15+ games this season. Take the Under.
Detroit Pistons vs. Boston Celtics
Free Pick: Over 195 (March 15th 2010 – Jimmy Boyd)
Want more free NBA predictions? Visit Handicappers Picks
Both of these teams are struggling on the defensive end. Boston has allowed 103 or more points in its last 3 games and defending will be no easier tonight after playing a tough one in Cleveland Sunday. The Pistons have allowed 107 or more points in 3 of their last 4 and 105 or more points in 5 of their last 7. In recent years, these have been two or the better defensive teams in the NBA, but the fact is that they are aging, making it tough to defend on a nightly basis. In fact, these two teams combined for 205 total points with the line set at just 187 the last time they met. With this number still 10 points under the total score in the last meeting, I think the Over is showing some pretty solid value. In fact, we’ve seen Boston struggle defensively down the stretch each of the last two seasons as its veterans have worn down. As a result, Boston is 21-8 Over in home games in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons, and we are seeing 201.3 points scored in these games on average. It is also worth noting that Boston is 18-7 Over in home games versus poor defensive teams, allowing their opponents to shoot 46% or better from the field, over the last 2 seasons, and we are seeing 202.7 points in these spot on average. We’ll bet the Over here tonight.
