New York Knicks vs. Indiana Pacers
Free Pick: New York Knicks +10 (Black Widow)
Inflated line here with the odds makers giving the Indiana Pacers way too much respect. Hard to believe Indiana could be favored by double-digits tonight against the Knicks considering the Pacers are just 29-48 this season. Indiana has been playing well lately, but they don’t have many wins against playoff teams during their run. And they have not fared well against the Knicks. New York is 4-1 SU in their last 5 meetings with Indiana, winning by 43, 7, 4 and 9 points. The Knicks are 26-11 ATS (+13.9 Units) in a road game where the total is greater than or equal to 210 over the last 2 seasons. The Knicks are 33-14 ATS (+17.6 Units) when playing their 3rd game in 4 days over the last 2 seasons. Playing on little rest has not hurt this team one bit, and they have a lot of confidence following their overtime win against the celtics last night. Take New York and the points.
Denver Nuggets vs. Oklahoma City Thunder
Free Pick: Under 211 Points (Jimmy Boyd)
The Nuggets aren’t the same high scoring team on the road. In fact, the Nuggets have been held under the century mark in their last 4 road games. Plus, OKC has proven to be a quality defensive team on its home floor, holding its opponents to only 95.9 points on the season. The last time these two teams faced off, the Thunder gave up 119 points to the Nuggets in a 29-point loss. In addition, they gave up 140 points in a defeat to Utah last night. With these two games in mind, I expect OKC to really tighten the screws on the defensive end and to be careful not to get into a track meet. History is certainly on our side here as home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210, revenging a loss to an opponent of 10 points or more, off a road loss, are 82-40 Under since 1996. Lastly, Denver is 23-10 Under in road games where the total is greater than or equal to 200 this season. Bet the Under tonight.
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Milwaukee Bucks vs. Chicago Bulls
Free Pick: Milwaukee Bucks +6.5 (Jimmy Boyd)
I know the Bucks will be Andrew Bogut for the rest of the season, but I think odds makers have over figured his absence into this line. Milwaukee will be extremely motivated tonight as it can clinch a postseason berth with a win. The Bulls will be motivated to win as well, as they are trying to play their way into the No. 8 seed. With this in mind, I expect another down to the wire game from these two teams. The first three meetings this season have all been decided by 3 or fewer points. The Bucks are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games as a road underdog and 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games as a road underdog of 5.0-10.5 points. Milwaukee is also 16-4 ATS versus poor defensive teams allowing 99 or more points per game, 2nd half of the season this season, winning in these spots by an average score of 102.7 to 95.5. Not having Bogut in the playoffs will prove costly, but I expect the Bucks to rally in his absence and take the Bulls right down to the wire tonight. Bet the Bucks.
San Antonio Spurs vs. Sacramento Kings
Free Pick: San Antonio Spurs -6 (Tom Freese)
Sacramento is just playing out the string. Tyreke Evans score 20 points a game. Beno Udrih scores 12.9 points a game Center Jason Thompson scores 12.5 points and 8.3 rebounds a game. The Kings score 99.8 points a game and they allow 104.2 points a game. Sacramento is 0-6 ATS their last 6 games as home dogs and they are 2-9-1 ATS when playing with two days of rest. San Antonio is led in scoring by Center Tim Duncan and his 18.1 points and 10.8 rebounds a game. Guard Manu Ginobili scores 16.6 points a game George Hill is filling in for the injured Tony Parker. Richard Jefferson scores 12.3 points a game. The Spurs 101.2 points a game and they allow 96 points a game. San Antonio is 10-1 ATS after scoring 100 or more points in their last game and they are 9-1 ATS their last 10 games vs. Western Conference teams. PLAY ON SAN ANTONIO
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Portland Trailblazers vs. Sacramento Kings
Free Pick: Under 194.5 (April 3rd 2010 – Jimmy Boyd)
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Right away you have to like the fact that plays Under on home teams where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points, a cold team having lost 6 or 7 of its last 8 games, against a hot team having won 8 or more of its last 10 games, are 48-23 the last 5 seasons. We are seeing just 190.2 points on average in this situation. Portland has made a habit of putting the clamps on defensively against bad teams. As a result, the Blazers are 20-8 UNDER when playing against a bad team (Win Pct. 25% to 40%) in the 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons, and we are only seeing a total of 188.4 points in these spots. The Kings are 6-0-1 Under in their last 7, and the Under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in this series. The Blazers are coming off a bad loss to the Nuggets, and that plays right into our hands here as well. In fact, the Under is 5-0 in their last 5 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points. Bet the Under tonight.
West Virginia vs. Washington
Free Pick: Under 141 (March 25th 2010 – Jimmy Boyd)
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Plays Under on neutral court teams where the total is between 140 and 149.5 points, WVU in this case, after allowing 60 points or less 3 straight games, against an opponent that has scored 75 points or more 2 straight games, are 26-7 since 1997, 16-4 the last 5 seasons and 13-2 the last 3 seasons. We are only seeing 135.3 total points scored in these games on average. West Virginia’s defense has really tightened its screws, holding its last 5 opponents below 60 points. The Mountaineers have also held 5 of their last 6 opponents to below 40% shooting from the field. WVU’s defense has even succeeded against good shooting teams this season. In fact, WVU is 6-0 Under when playing away from home against good shooting teams, like Washington, who make 45% or more of their shots, after 15+ games this season. Take the Under.
Detroit Pistons vs. Boston Celtics
Free Pick: Over 195 (March 15th 2010 – Jimmy Boyd)
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Both of these teams are struggling on the defensive end. Boston has allowed 103 or more points in its last 3 games and defending will be no easier tonight after playing a tough one in Cleveland Sunday. The Pistons have allowed 107 or more points in 3 of their last 4 and 105 or more points in 5 of their last 7. In recent years, these have been two or the better defensive teams in the NBA, but the fact is that they are aging, making it tough to defend on a nightly basis. In fact, these two teams combined for 205 total points with the line set at just 187 the last time they met. With this number still 10 points under the total score in the last meeting, I think the Over is showing some pretty solid value. In fact, we’ve seen Boston struggle defensively down the stretch each of the last two seasons as its veterans have worn down. As a result, Boston is 21-8 Over in home games in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons, and we are seeing 201.3 points scored in these games on average. It is also worth noting that Boston is 18-7 Over in home games versus poor defensive teams, allowing their opponents to shoot 46% or better from the field, over the last 2 seasons, and we are seeing 202.7 points in these spot on average. We’ll bet the Over here tonight.
Toronto Raptors vs. Sacramento Kings
Free Pick: Sacramento Kings +1.5 (March 10th 2010 – Jimmy Boyd)
The Raptors have struggled on the road all season, winning just 10 of 30 games, and I expect those struggles to continue tonight. It will be extremely difficult for Toronto to get up for this one after getting its heart ripped out by Kobe Bryant and the Lakers last night. When the Raptors have been tired, they have been pure fade material. In fact, Toronto is 3-11 ATS when playing on back-to-back days this season, losing in these spots by an average score of 100.4 to 109.6. Toronto is also just 4-14 ATS when playing its 3rd game in 4 days this season, losing in these spots by an average score of 104.3 to 110.9. The home team is 7-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings and the Kings enter having covered the spread in 6 of their last 7. We’ll side with Sacramento.
Rice vs. Tulsa
Free Pick: Tulsa -14 (March 10th 2010 – Tom Freese)
Rice is 8-22 overall and 1-15 in League Play. Guard Tamir Jackson scores 10.7 points a game. Forward Arsalan Kazemi scores 10.4 points and 9 rebounds a game. Guard Connor Frizzelle scores 9.2 points a game. Center Trey Stanton scores 9 points a game. The Owls score 64 points a game. Rice is 2-5 ATS their last 7 Wednesday games and they are 1-5 ATS their last 6 mettings with the Hurricanes. Tulsa is 21-10 overall and 10-6 in League Play. Guard Ben Uzuh scores 15.4 points a game. Center Jerome Jordan scores 15.1 points and 8.7 rebounds a game. Guard Justin Hurtt scores 13.9 points a game while shooting 38.5% from behind the arc. The Golden Hurricanes score 71.4 points a game. Tulsa is 13-5 ATS their last 18 games vs. a team with win percentage of under 40%! PLAY ON TULSA -
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Toronto Raptors vs. Los Angeles Lakers
Free NBA Pick: Los Angeles Lakers -10.5 (March 9th 2010 – Jimmy Boyd)
Off 3 straight defeats, look for the Lakers to send a message to the struggling Raptors tonight. Toronto has dropped 5 of its last 6, with 4 of those losses coming by at least 13 points. Plus, the Lakers should be further motivated by a l-point loss at Toronto in January. The last time the Raptors visited the Lakers they fell by 13 points, and this one should end up at least as bad. The Raptors are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games overall and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a road underdog of 11.0 or greater (line moved to -11 at some books). Lastly, the Lakers are 14-4 ATS in home games after failing to cover 8 or more of their last 10 against the spread under coach Jackson, winning in these spots by an average of 15.3 points. We’ll take the Lakers.
Miami Heat vs. Charlotte Bobcats
Free NBA Pick: Charlotte Bobcats -3.5 (March 9th 2010 – Doc’s Sports
The Bobcats, normally one of the best teams ATS the last couple years, have seen a drop in their production at the betting window due to recent struggles and we just think the bookies have made too big of a move here in adjusting this line. Even though the Bobcats are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 they seem to be getting it together and two of those wins came in their last two and both on this court. We just don’t have any faith in Miami on the road. They have played pretty well on the road lately but their wins have come against weak opponents for the most part, with only one win coming against a playoff-caliber squad. Charlotte is a completely different team at home than on the road and if they played even nearly as well on the road as they do at home they would be one of the top seeds from the East instead of fighting for a playoff spot in general. The Bobcats have won two straight in this series, one home and one away, and have covered in five of the last six.
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Texas vs. Baylor
Free Pick: Texas +3 (March 6th 2010 – Jimmy Boyd)
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It’s been a fall from grace for the Horns, going from the No. 1 ranked team in the country to unranked. But now all the pressure is gone, and I expect the immensely talented Longhorns to pay Baylor back for an earlier season loss here. Texas has won 11 straight over the Bears on the road and it will not be lacking any motivation today. Plus, plays against home teams where the line is +3 to -3, very good team outscoring their opponents by 8 or more points per game, in March games, are 24-6 ATS since 1997. On top of that, Baylor is only 1-11 ATS in home games versus excellent teams who shoot 45% or better from the field and allow 42% or worse shooting over the last 3 seasons. You also have to like the fact that Baylor is 0-7 ATS as a home favorite of 3 points or less or pick over the last 3 seasons, losing in these games by an average score of 71 to 77. Take Texas.
Atlanta Hawks vs. Chicago Bulls
Free NBA Pick: Atlanta Hawks +2 (March 1st 2010 – Jimmy Boyd)
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I know the Hawks just had a tough OT game with Milwaukee Sunday, but they can turn around and get a win in Chicago tonight against a banged up Bulls team. It really hurts the Bulls against a team with so much athleticism to have an athletic, energy guy like Joakim Noah out. It also hurts the Bulls that Luol Deng is not at 100 percent. Atlanta has really had Chicago’s number, winning 6 of the last 7 meetings. It’s also nice to know that the Hawks are 7-2-2 ATS in their last 11 Monday games, which is a tough day for many NBA teams to play, and 21-10 ATS in their last 31 games when their starting 5 players combine for more than 160 minutes of the previous day. We’ll side with the Hawks here tonight.
Free Pick: South Alabama +2 (Jimmy Boyd)
This matchup has been all about home court so we can’t really read too much into the 71-48 loss Denver handed South Bama last month except that it has provided plenty of motivation for the Jags. In fact, the home team is an impressive 15-3 ATS in the last 18 meetings. The Pioneers are about as poor a road team as you’ll find. They are 2-10 SU when playing away from home this season and 1-10 ATS in those lined games. In fact, the Pioneers are 0-8 ATS in their last 8 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. S. Bama is off back-to-back losses, and this is its last home games of the season so you can expect it to play with a great deal of pride and passion tonight. Take the Jags.
Free Pick: San Diego -3.5 (Rocky Atkinson)
Loyola Marymount is 0-4 SU and ATS last 3 years as a road underdog of 3 1/2 to 6 points. Lions are 7-17 ATS in their last 24 games as an underdog of 0.5-6.5. Lions are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of less than .400. Lions are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games as a road underdog of 0.5-6.5. Toreros are 20-9 ATS in their last 29 games as a home favorite of 0.5-6.5. Loyola Marymount is 11-57 SU as an underdog the past 3 years and 7-35 SU on the road the past 3 seasons. We’ll recommend a small play on San Diego tonight! Thanks and good luck, Rocky
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