NFL Picks: December 11th 2011
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Pick: Washington Redskins +9
Prior to last week’s 15-point loss to the Jets, which was a much closer game than the final score leads you to believe (Washington led in the 4th quarter), the Redskins hadn’t lost by more than 8 points in any of their home games. Doing the math, we find that Washington is only losing by an average of 3.0 points at home this season. This is the most points the Redskins have been catching all season and also the most points the Patriots have laid on the road. And frankly, this is too many points for a New England team that ranks dead last in the league in total defense with 412.1 yards allowed per game to be laying away from home. Going back to 1992, the Redskins are a rock solid 58-38 ATS when valued as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points. They are also a perfect 9-0 ATS in their last 9 games in the second half of the season versus terrible defensive teams that allow 6 yards or more per play. New England has the second-best passing attack in the league, but Washington is a reliable 13-2 ATS in its last 15 games versus excellent passing teams averaging 260 or more passing yards per game, provided it is at least 8 games into the season. Washington’s defense has not allowed a 300-yard passer all season. Plus, Tom Brady struggled against Mike Shanahan’s teams when the coach was in Denver. Brady went 1-5 against Shanahan’s Broncos, completing just 56.5 percent of his passes and posting a 78.1 passer rating. We’ll take the points. Like clockwork, Jimmy has started the late-season surge clients have counted on for years. With Saturday’s winner on Army +7, his football plays are a HOT 8-3-1 (73%) this month and a Tremendous 34-19-1 (64%) going back to Nov. 10.

Pick: Kansas City Chiefs +11
The Chiefs, who have quietly covered the spread in 7 of their last 10, are an impressive 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games as an underdog, 12-3 ATS in their last 15 games as an underdog of 10.5 points or more and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games. The Kansas City defense has been playing very well. It held the Steelers to 290 yards in a 13-9 loss in Week 12, and it held the Bears to 181 yards in last week’s 10-3 victory. Look for the KC defense to play well enough to keep this one within the number. Take the points.

Pick: Oakland Raiders +12.5
The Packers haven’t won by more than 12 points in any of their last 3 games and 5 of their last 6. They’ll have a difficult time running away from an Oakland team that will be hungry after laying an egg in Miami. Playing on underdogs or pick (OAKLAND) off a road blowout loss by 14 points or more, in December games, has produced a 99-55 ATS record the last 28 years. Teams in this situation have covered the spread 64.2% of the time while only losing by an average of 3.1 points. This system is 14-5 ATS the last 3 seasons. The Raiders are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a loss, 6-1 ATS in their last 7 road games and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog of 10.5 points or more. The Packers are just 8-17-2 ATS in their last 27 games as a favorite of 10.5 or more points. We’ll bet the Raiders. -Jeff Alexander (Handicapperspicks.com)

Expert NFL Picks: December 4th 2011
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Expert NFL Pick: Kansas City Chiefs +7
On Sunday the Free NFL System Club Play is on the Kansas City Chiefs. Game 349 at 1:00 eastern. The Chiefs fit a nice system Im tracking the past several years that plays on non division dogs from +7 to +10, if both teams come in off non divisional losses. These dogs are 35-9 ats. The Chiefs have K. Orton here facing his former team. KC is a solid 13-0 ats off a non division loss vs an opponent off a loss and have covered 3 of 4 as a dog in this range and 5 of 6 on the road when the total is 35.5 to 38. When they have played winning teams they have covered 3 of this season. The Bears have failed in 3 of 4 spread tries as a home favorite from -3.5 to -7 and that was with Cutlter in the game. Look for the Chiefs to cover today. On Sunday there are 5 big plays up led by the NFC Game of the Year that has 2 Perfect systems. Also on the card is an Early 5* Side with a never lost system, a Double system early dog and Late triple system side. In College Hoops the play of the day has 7 Strong angles. NFL is 26 games over .500 the past 3+ seasons. On Saturday those with me cashed 5 of 6 in football and 2 of 3 in College hoops. Jump on today and Cash out on Sunday. For the free play take the KC. Chiefs. -Rob Vinciletti

Expert NFL Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers -6.5
This line too low, especially now that it has dropped below the key number of ’7′ at many sportsbooks and there is excellent value with the Steelers at home laying just -6.5 points, especially since they were a 4-point road favorite at Cincinnati just two games ago and won outright 24-17. The Steelers dominated that game by more than the seven point margin and close yardage indicated as my re-scoring model using the drive charts had Pittsburgh winning the game by 12 points.

Many people wrote the Steelers off after a mediocre 2-2 (1-3 ATS) start to the season, but this is still the defending AFC champions and they are still one of the best teams in the league. Pittsburgh has since gone 6-1 SU in their past seven games and the main reason has been less turnovers. Pittsburgh is still -9 this season, but they have begun to improve with a +2 turnover margin the past six games, compared to a -11 margin in the first five games of the season.

Pittsburgh is a solid team on both sides of the ball and they have out-gained 9 of their 11 opponents this season and the only two games in which the Steelers did not hold the overall yardage edge was on the road versus solid Houston and Baltimore squads. Meanwhile, the Bengals have been good against bad teams, but Cincinnati has struggled when stepping up in class. In fact, the Bengals are 1-4 SU versus winning teams this season, while going 6-0 SU versus .500 or less opponents.

Cincinnati is a mediocre team on both sides of the ball and their biggest weakness this season has been a sub-par pass defense that allows 6.3 yards per pass (versus opponents that average just 6.1 ypp). This will be a problem versus a strong Pittsburgh passing attack that is averaging 7.5 yards per pass this season (versus opponents that allow just 6.6 ypp). Pittsburgh is the better team on both sides of the ball today and the Steelers present solid value at home laying -6.5 or less. -Steve Merril (Handicapperspicks.com)

Patriots vs. Chiefs
Odds: New England Patriots -16 Over/Under 47 (November 21st 2011)
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Boyd’s Chiefs/Patriots Monday Night Football SMASH (ESPN)!
Strong 8-4 (67%) NFL Run L11 days! Despite some tough luck in Sunday’s earlier action, like the Vikings’ Adrian Peterson going down, Jimmy still managed a profitable 3-2 performance on the pro gridiron thanks to his Sunday Night Football SMASH winning outright on the Eagles +5.5. If you liked that easy prime time winner, then you’re going to enjoy tonight’s Chiefs/Pats point-spread winner just as much! You’ll cash this ticket or Jimmy’s next football card is ON THE HOUSE!

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Jim Feist’s Monday Night Football, Chiefs vs Patriots
Winning is the greatest, but WATCHING and WINNING is even better, and you can do both Monday night as the Chiefs take on the Patriots on ESPN. Jim Feist is set to ROCK the BOOKS with a winner in this AFC Battle! WHO is focused and READY to PLAY? Jim knows and runs an end around on the books, so get ready to WATCH AND WIN TONIGHT.

Tom Stryker’s 63-27 ATS NFL Monday Night Super System
Stryker picked up a nice primetime win on the Eagles last night and returns to action on Monday armed with one more Best Bet. A side in the New England vs Kansas City game applies to a powerful 63-27 ATS pro system and a tremendous 19-6 ATS angle is also live. Grab Tom’s Monday Night Super System for $25.

MACK ATTACK CHIEFS/PATRIOTS MONDAY NIGHT MAGIC
The Mack Attack has been cash money in these weeknight one game ISO spots. DMack off a 4-1 NFL Sunday and +499 for the day winning NHL and CBB Plays of the Day too. Chiefs/Pats is easy money and extended DMack analysis dtails exactly why. If you need to cash a ticket, don’t miss this one. BE THERE!
- Handicapperspicks.com

Expert’s Week 10 NFL Picks: November 13th 2011
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NFL Pick: Denver Broncos +3
Kansas City gained some attention when they ripped off 4 consecutive wins after opening the season at 0-3. But they beat three terrible teams over that stretch and got extremely fortunate in their Monday night win over the Chargers. The Chiefs got back to reality last week in their 31-3 home blowout loss to the Dolphins. Kansas City was getting the breaks during their winning streak; they benefited from a remarkable 13/6 turnover margin in those 4 games, including a 10/6 margin against the Raiders and Chargers. An easy schedule plus getting lucky in the turnover game is a great recipe to string together some wins, and that is exactly what Kansas City did.

We often see teams winning on “good fortune” become overvalued and this is when we can take advantage of the public perception of a team. Despite their recent success, the Chiefs are still 26th in the league in scoring offense, 23rd in the league in points allowed, 21st in yardage allowed, and 27th in offensive passing yards per game. Kansas City is not really a team that deserves to be 4-4 on the season.

Denver has played much better football since Tim Tebow too over as the starting quarterback. The Broncos have gone 2-1 in those games as their rushing game has been phenomenal; they’ve run for 183, 195, and 298 yards with Tebow under center. Overall, the Broncos are 5th in the league in rushing; they average 148 yards per game on 5.3 yards per rush. Denver will find room to run against the Chiefs’ defense which is 17th in the league against the run (120 yards per game on 4.1 yards per rush). Since 2007, the Chiefs are just 13-23 ATS at home including 3-11-1 ATS as a home favorite. Kansas City should not be favored over any team so we’ll take the points with Denver in this game. -Steve Merril

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NFL Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers -3
The Bengals have surprised everyone with their 6-2 start to the season, but I don’t think the magic is going to hold up over the second half. The Bengals have played an incredibly easy schedule up to this point. Their only win against a team who currently has a winning record is a 23-20 home win over Buffalo, a game in which they trailed by 14 points. The Steelers are going to be one pissed off bunch after suffering their second loss of the season to the Baltimore Ravens. Earlier this season the Steelers responded from a loss to Baltimore by coming out the next week and beating the Seahawks 24-0. Expect a similar result in this one, as the Bengals just don’t match up in talent. Pittsburgh is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 road games vs. a team with a winning home record, 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite of 3.5-10.0, and 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games following a S.U. loss. -Steve Janus (Handicapperspicks.com)

San Diego Chargers vs. Kansas City Chiefs
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Odds: San Diego Chargers -3 Over/Under 44.5 (October 31st 2011)

***WISEGUY ALERT*** Jeff’s 5* MNF Game of the Month (19-8 Run)! – Jeff went 8-3 (73%) with his 5* Wiseguy Top Plays last week, and these highly regarded releases are a Dominant 19-8 (70%) since Oct. 11 (profiting $1,000/game bettors $9,580)! Last Monday night, he nailed a 5* Wiseguy play on the Jags +11, who shocked the Ravens. This Monday he takes things up a notch with his BIGGEST & BADDEST play on the MNF stage this month. It’s backed by a Killer 15-1 ATS Super System that is already a PERFECT 2-0 ATS this season! You’ll cash this ticket or Tuesday’s picks are FREE!

***TOP PLAY*** Boyd’s Chargers/Chiefs 5* MNF *BEST BET* (ESPN)! – 6 OF L7 DAYS IN THE BLACK behind a Red Hot 12-5 (71%) Run! Last week on Monday Night Football, Jimmy Boyd struck gold with the Jaguars +11, who recorded an OUTRIGHT win over the Ravens. This week, he’s spotted another GOLDEN INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITY on the Chargers/Chiefs showdown. Once you read his detailed game analysis, you’ll be ready to bet with confidence right alongside him. Close out Week 8 in style by getting down on Jimmy’s winning side. You’ll cash this ticket or Tuesday’s entire card is ON THE HOUSE!

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*Top Play Alert* Price’s 7* AFC West Game of the Year (4-0 in Oct)!
White Hot 8-1 (89%) Run on 7* Top Plays! With last Monday’s winner on the Jags +11, Dave’s MNF picks improved to a PERFECT 4-0 this month! His Monday Football Picks are an INSANE 17-5-1 (77%) dating back to last season. Join Dave as he goes for the MNF SWEEP in October with his Chargers/Chiefs 7* AFC West Game of the Year! This is his single strongest play in the division this season, and IT’S AS GOOD AS GOLD! It wins or Tuesday’s picks are FREE!

Doc’s Monday Night Madness Selection (2-0 MNF Run)
Doc’s Sports has collected on Monday Night Football the last two weeks including an easy totals winner last week when Baltimore & Jacksonville stayed under the posted total by 20.5 points! Tonight features a strong side play winner from two AFC teams that is 100% guaranteed to profit! (Handicapperspicks.com)

NFL Week 2 Expert’s Picks: September 19th 2011
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Expert Pick: Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3
It appears that QB Donovan McNabb is nearing the end. He was absolutely awful last week. After coming off a poor year in 2010 we don’t project him to do much better in 2011 with Minnesota. Minnesota was dominated last week against San Diego but found a way to cover somehow. Tampa Bay is coming off a poor performance last week at home vs Detroit as there are high expectations with them this year. Both teams are not as good as people think they are but Tampa is younger and has the better QB play. TAMPA BAY is 7-0 ATS as a road underdog over the last 2 seasons . Minnesota falls in to a negative 17-48 record playing on certain home teams coming off a losing season and off an opening week loss. Tampa looks like the play here even though our ratings have Minnesota -3. Tampa Bay 23-20 -Carolina Sports

Expert Pick: Oakland Raiders +4
Raiders +4 (1.1* FREE PLAY) After the first week when the Bills went on the road and dominated the Chiefs everyone is buying into the Bills and I”m a little surprised at this line. Yes the Raiders have to come East to play this game, but I feel they are ready to play well and back up their Monday performance on short rest here. People forget how bad the Bills run defense was last year as the Chiefs never got to take advantage of that falling behind early. Bills were ranked last last year and I think the Raiders can really shorten the game and play with the lead with one of the better running games in the league. I think the Raiders man coverage and blitz scheme will throw Fitzpatrick off a little bit and the Bills will have issues trying to run the ball today. -Freddy Wills

Expert Pick: Kansas City Chiefs +9
Chiefs +9 over Lions- I have a number of close friends (believe it or not) in this business and many of them actually ‘love’ the Chiefs here. Some insist that Kansas City will win the game on the field. I of course being more conservative will be happy with a point-spread victory. The Cheifs have only one way to go having failed to win a pre-season game and getting pounded at home by Buffalo has many thinking it will a long year for Kansas City. They fumbled the opening kickoff and turned the ball over three more times. Teams improve that most from week One to week Two and the Chiefs should cover. Take KANSAS CITY! -Chip Chirimbes (Handicapperspicks.com)