MLB Picks: September 28th 2011
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Pick: Detroit Tigers -164
With a chance for home-field advantage in the AL division series, the Tigers will go for the “W” tonight. They have won 9 straight against the Tribe, and they are 4-0 in Porcello’s last 4 home starts vs. the Indians. The Tigers are 20-8 in Porcello’s last 28 starts overall and 6-1 in his last 7 home starts. Take the Tigers. -Dave Price

Pick: St. Louis Cardinals -1.5 -104
With last night’s defeat, Houston fell to 6-29 this season when matchup up against a good team with a winning percentage between 54 and 62 percent. It’s losing these games by an average of 2.7 runs. Houston’s Brett Myers hasn’t shown he can be trusted as home, where he is 3-7 with an ERA of 4.57 this season. He’s lost both of his starts against St. Louis this season by 3 and 2 runs respectively. The Astros are 3-13 in his last 16 starts vs. a team with a winning record, and 1-7 in his last 8 home starts vs. a team with a winning record. The Cardinals are 5-1 in Carpenter’s last 6 starts as a road favorite, and 14-3 in his last 17 starts as a road favorite of -151 to -200. We’ll take St. Louis on the run line. -Jimmy Boyd

Pick: Kansas City Royals -115
Minnesota is 4-20 in the month of September this year. Minnesota is 8-21 this year when playing against a team with a losing record in the 2nd half of the season. Minnesota has lost 4 of their last 5 games overall. Kansas City bullpen has a 3.74 ERA overall this year and a 3.71 ERA on the road this season. Bruce Chen is 12-8 with a 3.98 ERA overall this year and 2-1 with a 2.11 ERA his last 3 starts. Carl Pavano is 8-13 overall this year and 0-2 his last 3 starts. We’ll recommend a small play on Kansas City tonight! Thanks and good luck, Rocky Atkinson

Pick: Royals vs. Twins over 8
These two have been overs machines down the stretch. The Royals have played to the over in 11 of their last 12, and the Twins have played to the over in 12 of their last 14 with one push. Considering Chen has a 5.35 career ERA against the Twins and Pavano has a 5.62 lifetime ERA against the Royals, I’m expecting another high-scoring affair tonight. Bet the Over. -Jeff Alexander (Handicapperspicks.com)

MLB Picks: September 14th 2011
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Pick: Twins vs. Royals Under 8.5
On Wednesday the Free MLB Totals system is on the Under in the Twins at Royals game. Rotation numbers 923/924 at 4:10 eastern. This game fits a nice totals system that plays to the under for home favorites of -140 or higher off a home favored win scoring 4 or less runs on 10+ hits, vs an opponent off a road dog loss scoring 2 or less runs on 4 or less hits with 4 or less men left on base. If the total is less than 10 this system cashes a shade over 80%. The Twins anemic offense is averaging just 2 runs per game the past week and they have gone under in 12 of the last 12 vs losing teams. The Royals have played under in 5 of the last 6 games. They have L. Hochevar going today and he has pitched under in 7 of his last 9 starts. He opposes Twins rookie Hendricks here today and Hendricks is another Solid, September, Minnesota call up this season. In his first start he went a solid 7 innings allowing just 3 runs. Look for this one to stay under tonight. On Wednesday the Lead plays are the MLB Parlay of the Month backed with 27-2 systems. Jump on and get on the giving end of Hump day. For the free play take the Under in the Twins at Royals game. -Rob Vinciletti

Pick: New York Mets -125
Washington is 18-38 last 3 years as a road underdog of +100 to +125. Washington is scoring only 3.9 runs per game overall this year and 3.8 runs per game on the road this season. Brad Peacock makes his 2nd appearance of the year and 1st start. He has pitched in one game so far and gave up four hits in a little over an inning of work, struck out none and walked one. His ERA sits at 6.75 on the season. Mike Pelfrey has been his best at home with a 3-3 record and a 3.87 ERA. We’ll recommend a small play on NY Mets tonight! Thanks and good luck, Rocky Atkinson

Pick: Los Angeles Dodgers -138
The D-backs are playing fantastic baseball right now, but I like LA ace Kershaw to get the better of them tonight. The Dodgers have won 12 of his last 15 starts, and he has given up 1 or no earned runs in 9 of those outings. The southpaw has been nearly unhittable at home, where he is 10-1 with an ERA of 1.80. The Dodgers have won each of his last 6 home starts and 5 of his last 6 starts vs. the Diamondbacks. Hudson is having a strong season for Arizona, but he has had some difficulties on the road, where he has posted an ERA of 3.95 and the D-backs have only won 8 of his 15 starts. We’ll bet the Dodgers. -Jimmy Boyd (Handicapperspicks.com)

MLB Picks: August 9th 2011
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MLB Pick: Baltimore Orioles +116
5* graded play on Baltimore as they host the CWS set to start at 7:05 PM ET. My proprietary sports handicapping database and simulator shows a high probability that Baltimore will win this game. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 54-29 for 65% winners and has made 41.8 units per one unit wagered since 1997. Play on home dogs with a money line of +100 or higher and is a team hitting <=.265 with an overused bullpen that pitches more than 3.2 innings per game and is facing a decent starting pitcher posting an ERA=4.20 to 4.70. This system has averaged a +131 dog play since 1997 and is a solid 5-1 making 4.4 units per one unit wagered this season. Baltimore may be one of the weakest teams in the majors, but they have done well against losing record teams like the CWS. Baltimore is a solid 17-6 (+10.8 Units) against the money line in home games when playing against a team with a losing record this season. Take the Orioles. -John Ryan

MLB Pick: Milwaukee Brewers +112
Milwaukee is 65-50 overall this year while St Louis comes in with a 62-53 overall record on the season. Milwaukee is 11-1 their last 12 games overall. Milwaukee is 31-18 against division opponents this year. Shaun Marcum is 10-3 with a 3.58 ERA overall this year, 5-2 with a 2.40 ERA on the road this season and 2-0 his last 3 starts. Milwaukee is 13-8 at St Louis the past 3 years. We’ll recommend a small play on Milwaukee tonight! Thanks and good luck, Rocky Atkinson

MLB Pick: Kansas City Royals +175
Tampa Bay starter James Shields is slumping, with a 5.68 ERA his last three starts. He faces a Kansas City offense that is 12th in runs and 9th in on-base percentage. Kansas City is relatively rested, off a nice 6-game home stand. Lefty Jeff Francis struggled early after coming over from Colorado, but is throwing well now, with a 3.50 ERA his last three starts. And the Rays are 1-6 in their last 7 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30. Play the KC Royals! -Jim Feist (Handicapperspicks.com)

MLB Picks: August 3rd 2011
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MLB Pick: Cincinnati Reds -131
The three game sweep of San Francisco will go for naught if the Reds don’t continue to win especially against a struggling Houston squad. Cincinnati received an all around solid performance Tuesday in a 5-1 victory with Homer Bailey turning in a great effort on the mound giving up the one run in eight innings on five hits. Unlike Monday when the offense squandered numerous scoring opportunities the Reds scored five runs in the fifth inning with a grand slam off the bat of Edgar Renteria the big blow. The Reds pulled to within two games of the .500 mark but if this team expects to be a factor in the National League Central race they need to duplicate Tuesday’s performance more often where both the bats and arms hold up their end of the bargain. The pitching side of things will fall to left hander Dontrelle Willis who will be making his fifth start of 2011. He has yet to win a game but comes in off of a pair of good starts that saw him give up five runs in 12.1 innings. If Willis can turn in those type of performances going forward the Reds playoff push will be much easier. TAKE CINCINNATI MINUS -Bob Wingerter

MLB Pick: San Diego Padres -118
10* Play on San Diego at 10:05 ET. The Dodgers sure seem to have the Padres number. They have beaten them five straight times, including three shutouts, one of them coming last night, 1-0. Interestingly, all three shutouts were 1-0 finals, so its not like LA is hitting well vs. San Diego pitching either. The Padres Tim Stauffer has a 2.88 ERA in 11 home starts this year. The Dodgers Ted Lilly has a 6.48 ERA his last three starts overall. 10* on San Diego (w/ Stauffer). -Tom Freese

MLB Pick: Milwaukee Brewers +100
Surprisingly Milwaukee is the better team so far this year as St Louis comes in with a 58-52 overall record and Milwaukee is now 61-50 overall on the season. Milwaukee is now 40-15 at home this year. Milwaukee is 21-6 this year at home when the total is 8 to 8 1/2. Milwaukee is 7-1 their last 8 games. Milwaukee bullpen has a 3.31 ERA at home this year. Randy Wolf has a 3.17 ERA at home this year and a 2.21 ERA his last 3 starts. We’ll recommend a small play on Milwaukee today! Thanks and good luck, Rocky Atkinson

MLB Pick: Kansas City Royals -119
The Royals have quietly won each of Hochevar’s last 6 starts, and he has really sizzled in the last 3 with an ERA 3.26. The Orioles, meanwhile, are just 3-7 in Guthrie’s road starts this season and 0-5 in his last 5 road starts as an underdog of +110 to +150. Baltimore took Game 1, but it is 0-5 in its last 5 games following a win and 2-12 in its last 14 in the 2nd game of a series. Take the Royals. -Jeff Alexander (Handicapperspicks.com)

MLB Picks: July 31st 2011
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Pick: Cleveland Indians -121
The Cleveland Indians get the call Sunday as a small home favorite over the Kansas City Royals. Cleveland sends Fausto Carmona to the mound, who is 1-0 with a 1.29 ERA and 1.143 WHIP in his last three starts. Carmona has allowed just two earned runs and 16 base runners in 14 innings during this stretch. In his last two starts against Kansas City, Carmona has given up just 4 earned runs in 12 innings for a 3.00 ERA. I’ll fade Danny Duffy of the Royals, who is 2-4 with a 5.17 ERA and 1.63 WHIP in 12 starts this season. The Royals are 0-6 in Duffy’s last 6 starts vs. a team with a winning record. The Indians are 22-8 in their last 30 games as a home favorite, including 5-0 in Carmona’s last 5 starts as a home fave. Cleveland is 7-1 in their last 8 home meetings with Kansas City. Roll with the Indians Sunday. -Jack Jones

Pick: Boston Red Sox +107
The Red Sox may be throwing cold pitcher in Andrew Miller, but they have more than enough offense to make up for it. Boston is one of the few teams in the American League to post a winning record on the road this season. The reason they’ve had so much success is their offense, which can stay with any team in the league, almost regardless of who is pitching. -Jimmy Boyd

Pick: Seattle Mariners +110
I’ll take my chances on Seattle with Vargas on the mound for the Mariners. He’s been rock-solid at home this season, posting a 3.78 ERA and 1.17 WHIP in 12 starts at Seattle. The Mariners don’t typically score a lot of runs, but neither do their opponents when they play in Seattle. This season their opponents are averaging just 3.6 runs per game. -Jeff Alexander (Handicapperspicks.com)

MLB Picks: July 29th 2011
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Pick: Cleveland Indians -134
I’ll side with the Cleveland Indians Friday in Game 1 of this series with the Kansas City Royals. The Indians come into this series rested after having Thursday off, while the Royals travel from Boston after finishing off their 4-game set with the Red Sox yesterday. I’ll back the Indians because of the rest factor, having the better starter on the mound, and the fact that they are actually playing for something as they are squarely in the middle of the AL Central race. Carlos Carrasco is 8-8 with a 4.25 ERA and 1.295 WHIP in 19 starts this season for Cleveland, while Jeff Francis is 3-11 with a 4.44 ERA and 1.371 WHIP in 21 starts this year for Kansas City. Francis is 1-6 with a 6.11 ERA and 1.572 WHIP in 10 road starts as well. The lefty is 1-2 with a 7.98 ERA and 1.704 WHIP in three career starts against Cleveland. In his lone start against the Indians this season, Francis gave up 5 earned runs in 3 innings of a 2-7 loss. The Royals are 1-9 in Francis’ 10 road starts in 2011. The Royals are 0-6 in their last 6 meetings in Cleveland. Bet the Indians Friday. -Jack Jones

Pick: Chicago White Sox +100
White Sox RH Gavin Floyd (8-9, 4.11 ERA) vs. Red Sox RH Tim Wakefield (6-3, 5.15 ERA). Floyd has been sharp over his last two outings, allowing a total of one earned run in 15 2/3 innings while striking out 10 and issuing one walk. The former first-round draft pick earned a win at Boston on June 1 and has never lost to the Red Sox, owning a 5-0 record with a 3.83 ERA in seven games. Wakefield will be searching for his 200th career win on Friday. The ageless knuckleballer has been getting knocked around quite a bit of late but has been bailed out by the Boston offense, which is averaging 10 runs in Wakefield’s last four starts. He is 7-12 with a 4.97 ERA in his career against Chicago. TAKE THE WHITE SOX HERE -Bob Wingerter

Pick: Oakland Athletics -145
The A’s, who are 5-0 in their last 5 games following a loss, hold the edge tonight with Gio Gonzalez stepping to the mound. The southpaw is 7-2 at home with an ERA of 1.87. The Athletics are 19-7 in his last 26 home starts, 25-6 in his last 31 starts as a favorite and 20-6 in his last 26 starts as a home favorite. The A’s are 15-3 in his last 18 starts as a favorite of -110 to -150. It is also worth noting that the Twins are 1-5 in their last 6 road games vs. a left-handed starter. Francisco Liriano is carrying an ERA of 4.82 on the season and is coming off a terrible start in which he gave up 4 runs in just 2 1-3 innings. The Twins are 3-7 in Lirianos last 10 starts when he takes the mound with just 4 days’ of rest. They are also 1-5 in his last 6 starts as a road underdog of +110 to +150. Also, the Athletics are 4-1 in their last 5 home games vs. a left-handed starter. -Jimmy Boyd (Handicapperspicks.com)