NFL Picks: October 23rd 2011
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NFL Pick: Detroit Lions -4
Atlanta needed three Carolina turnovers to win last week. Without those game-changing plays, it would have been a different outcome for the Falcons. They were out-yarded on the field (368-325) and out-gained 5.9 to 5.6 yards per play. Atlanta trailed going into the fourth quarter before scoring 17 points; they needed 26 plays to gain 142 yards over the final 15 minutes of the game. So the scoreboard reads like a blowout win for Atlanta, but it was hardly that. And the Falcons are taking a major step-up in class here against the Lions, especially with this game being played on the road with Detroit coming off a loss.

We can forgive the Lions for losing last Sunday. They were in a terrible situational spot after winning a highly emotional Monday night game against a divisional opponent just six days before. The Lions were flat against San Francisco, and that was clearly evident by watching the game. Detroit’s offense holds a huge match-up edge in this game. The Lions have a terrific passing game led by QB Matthew Stafford. They are averaging 277 passing yards per game on 7.0 yards per pass attempt. Atlanta’s defense has been dreadful against the pass this year as they are allowing opponents 283 yards per game on a whopping 8.0 yards per pass attempt. The Falcons have been out-gained through the air in all but one game this season so there’s no reason for the Lions not to a field day against the weak Falcons’ secondary.

Detroit’s defense has gone unnoticed because of their offense. The Lions are ranked in the top 15 in the league overall and they present huge problems for opposing offensive lines with their strength along the defensive line. They rank 6th in the league against the pass (205 yards per game on 5.5 yards per pass) and they are allowing opponents to convert less than 30% of their third down attempts. With WR Julio Jones still questionable, the Falcons will be hard-pressed to stretch the Lions’ defense through the air. Detroit is in a great bounce back spot at home to notch a solid win over a vastly overrated Atlanta team. -Steve Merril

NFL Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers -3.5
Pittsburgh is tied for 2nd in the AFC North with Cincinnati at 4-2. Their defense is yielding just 17.0 PPG and top the league in both total yards allowed (270.5) and passing yards allowed (157.7). Safety, Troy Polamalu has been cleared to play after a concussion issue. The stifling Steelers “D” will get to Cardinals QB, Kevin Kolb and force him to make mistakes. Arizona has dropped 4 in a row SU and their L3 ATS. They have averaged a mere 17.0 PPG in their current 4 game funk. None of those 4 defenses are on the same level as the stop unit they must face today. There is a reason why ‘Zona is 1-4. RB Mendenhall will shred the Arizona defense while the Pitt “D” will add to Kevin Kolbs 16 sacks. The Steelers are 7-3 ATS their L10 games played vs. teams with a losing record and 6-2 ATS their L8 games played as a favorite. The Cardinals are 6-14 ATS their L20 overall and 3-7 ATS their L10 games played as a ‘dog. Take Pittsburgh. Thank you. -Joseph D’Amico (Handicapperspicks.com)

The preseason of pro football betting usually provides some real surprising results that just aren’t common due to the uncertainty of the game. Today at BetUS, we look at our “Rabid Dawgs Parlay” for Week 3 of pro football betting in the preseason.
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Washington Redskins vs. New York Jets
Game Date/Time: Friday, August 27th, 7:00 ET
Game Location: New Meadowlands Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ
TV/Radio Broadcast: Local TV, Westwood One, Sirius

NFL Odds: Washington Redskins (+4.5) -110 vs. New York Jets (-4.5) -110: Over/Under 34.5

Even though Donovan McNabb isn’t likely to play in this one, we still believe that the Redskins have a significantly better chance to win this game than the +180 moneyline suggests. Backup Rex Grossman has proven to be significantly more than competent in the preseason, completing 64.1 percent of his passes for 335 yards with two TDs and a pick. That’s two more yards, one more TD pass, and two fewer INTs than all of the New York quarterbacks combined.

Rex Ryan has called two very vanilla game plans so far in this preseason, and we tend to believe that that could reasonably come back to bite him in this one in spite of the fact that his team is the sizeable choice to pick up a victory.

Philadelphia Eagles vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Game Date/Time: Friday, August 27th, 8:00 ET
Game Location: Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MO
TV/Radio Broadcast: Local TV, Westwood One, Sirius

NFL Odds: Philadelphia Eagles (+1) -110 vs. Kansas City Chiefs (-1) -110: Over/Under 37

Haven’t the Chiefs already shown that they have no ability to win in the preseason? They were awful offensively in games both against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Atlanta Falcons, and now they are going to play host to one of the deepest offensive teams in the NFL in the Eagles. Kansas City’s quarterbacking rotation just doesn’t add anywhere up to near what the Eagles can offer, as Kevin Kolb, Michael Vick, and Mike Kafka might all be better than anything that Todd Haley is going to be able to trot out there.

Kolb has proven that he can be explosive, and we look for him to exploit the KC defense for at least two scores before he calls it a day around halftime or so. KC should have no answers in this one, and the end result should be a mild upset perfect for our Rabid Dawg selection for Week 3.

Though the Eagles aren’t a huge underdog, when parlayed with the Redskins on Friday night, they make for a fantastic price. This is still the preseason. Upsets like this happen all the time. Don’t be afraid to throw down on both of these NFC East teams this weekend, as they should combined to be worth somewhere in the neck of the woods of about 6.25-1 in your pro football betting card.

Rabid Dawg Parlay: (Washington Redskins/Philadelphia Eagles)

Source: BetUS Locker Room Featured on: Handicapperspicks.com

Of all the games on the Week 1 slate in the NFL preseason, one game stands out quite a bit as one that you can cash in on in a big way. The Philadelphia Eagles will take on the Jacksonville Jaguars in a game that sets up perfectly for an in-game teaser in NFL betting action Friday night.
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Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Game Date/Time: Friday, August 13th, 7:30 ET
Game Location: Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia, PA
TV/Radio Broadcast: Local TV, Westwood One, Sirius

NFL Odds: Jacksonville Jaguars +3 vs. Philadelphia Eagles -3: Over/Under: 33

The first key item to remember in this game is how poor both of these defenses were last preseason. The Eagles allowed a whopping 120 points in four games, while the Jags conceded 86.

The Philadelphia offense isn’t going to be afraid to air it out in the preseason thanks to the fact that all three quarterbacks are still going to be getting used to their current roles.

We already know that QB Kevin Kolb has the ability to be fantastic, and he has been handed the reins of the Eagles’ offense this season. HC Andy Reid is going to want to see what he has the ability to do as a starter, and he should expect plenty of reps with his starting offense intact.

Second string QB Michael Vick is one of the most feared quarterbacks in the league even though he still clearly isn’t in the same shape he was with the Atlanta Falcons before the infamous dog fighting incident.

The intriguing man to watch is going to be third stringer QB Mike Kafka. Kafka is a rookie out of Northwestern, and many think he has the tools to be a legitimate starting QB in this league at some point. Reid will inevitably care a lot more about getting Kafka some reps and some confidence than he will watching his stable of running backs tote the rock.

Though the Jags did go 3-1 in each of the previous three preseasons, they only went 1-3 last year and didn’t appear particularly interested in performing at all. HC Jack Del Rio still has a young squad with a lot of work to do to get ready for the year.

Jacksonville is clearly going to be outdone in all three QB positions. David Garrard is barely hanging on to his job by a thread, as he has never been a huge threat to put up big numbers. Luke McCown is a journeyman backup at best, while third stringer Trevor Harris is merely a rookie that is a product out of tiny Edinboro College.

The bottom line here is that the Eagles have to try hard to win this game and do so in remotely impressive fashion. Teasing them across both ’3′s is crucial, so let’s bring them to +3.5 with a 6.5 point teaser. This works well, as a 17-10 type of final score will be enough to push the game past the number as well.

My NFL Preseason Predictions: 6.5-point teaser: Philadelphia +3.5 w/ Over 26.5
Source: BetUS Locker Room Featured on: Handicapperspicks.com

The 2010 NFL odds are out, and BetUS Sportsbook is looking at the NFC East today. The Dallas Cowboys proved to be too much to top last season, but they are going to be on high alert this year, as all three teams feel like they have to be contenders for a home playoff game.
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Dallas Cowboys (+125 odds) – The Cowboys made real headlines last week by becoming the first team in the NFL to sign their first round draft pick, WR Dez Bryant. Bryant could bring a whole other dimension to the passing game, which was one of the best in the league last year. Between the play of QB Tony Romo and his weapons, including Bryant, WR Miles Austin, WR Roy Williams, and TE Jason Witten, Dallas is sure to be back in the playoff mix once again this year.
My NFL Predictions: 11-5, 1st place in NFC East

New York Giants (+270 odds) – The Giants failed to make the playoffs last year, but it wasn’t the offense’s fault. QB Eli Manning did the best he could with an entirely new set of receivers and tight ends. The play of WR Steve Smith was outstanding last year, and if either Hakeem Nicks or Mario Manningham can step up and do the same thing this season, the New York offense is going to be fantastic. Rookie DE Jason Pierre-Paul and the addition of SS Antrel Rolle from Arizona should help out a pass defense which was the worst in the division last year. The playoffs aren’t out of the question for HC Tom Coughlin’s crew.
My NFL Predictions: 10-6, 2nd place in NFC East

Philadelphia Eagles (+270 odds) – Now that QB Donovan McNabb has moved on, the Eagles have a lot of work to do. QB Kevin Kolb looked sharp in limited action last season, and he is going to be the man tabbed with the duty of making the fans in the City of Brotherly Love forget about #5. It is the defense that concerns us though, especially in the secondary. Philadelphia didn’t have a fantastic secondary last season, and though S Marlin Jackson was signed to help fill the void, his Achilles rupture is going to take him out of the lineup for the entire season.
My NFL Predictions: 8-8, 3rd place in NFC East

Washington Redskins (+550 odds) – Speaking of Donovan McNabb… He’s the new man under center in our nation’s capitol, and along with him comes new HC Mike Shanahan. If owner Dan Snyder is right that the play of QB Jason Campbell and coaching abilities of former HC Jim Zorn really were inadequate, the Redskins could challenge for the NFC East title this year. Though both Shanahan and McNabb are upgrades on their predecessors, it won’t be enough to get the Skins into the playoffs or out of the NFC East gutter. There is still far too much work to be done here for success.
My NFL Predictions: 7-9, 4th place in NFC East

Source: BetUS Locker Room Featured on: Handicapperspicks.com

Apparently, winning a number of NFC East titles and taking the team to one Super Bowl in his tenure wasn’t good enough for QB Donovan McNabb to keep his job. Now that the Philadelphia Eagles are clearly under the direction of QB Kevin Kolb, we have five questions related to football odds for the City of Brotherly Love.
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1: Is QB Kevin Kolb the real deal? The few looks that we have gotten at Kolb in his brief career have been solid. He threw for 741 yards and four scores essentially in just two starts with the Eagles last season, and that brief look was good enough for the franchise to trade McNabb to the Washington Redskins this past offseason. The Houston product clearly has a big arm and has the pedigree to be a great QB in this league, but until we see it, we don’t necessarily believe it.

2: Is this the final go around for HC Andy Reid? If it is, the Eagles could be in for a season’s worth of change. Reid, McNabb, and RB Brian Westbrook were the rocks of this franchise for years, and now, he is the only link left. There has been a ton of speculation that the Eagles and Reid have been ready to cut ties for years, and dealing McNabb might just be the straw that broke the camel’s back.

3: Can DE Brandon Graham give DE Trent Cole the pass rushing mate he’s desperately been seeking? Probably – The Michigan product was a fantastic steal for the Eagles at pick No. 13 overall in the NFL Draft, as he has a high motor off the end and can really cause a lot of problems; especially if the attention shifts to Cole on a regular basis. Cole had a team high 12.5 sacks last season and clearly will be a concern to offensive tackles across the entire league.

4: Is LeSean McCoy ready to be an every down back in the NFL? McCoy only started four games last season for Philadelphia, and he looked suitable in doing so. He’ll probably have to improve upon a 4.1 YPC average from ’09 to make it in this league, but he will also have to prove that he is able to carry the rock 225+ times as well. A 1,000+ yard season is expected from the back out of U-Pitt, and anything less will be a brutal disappointment.

5: Bottom Line: How many games will the Philadelphia Eagles win in 2010? An over/under of 8.5 wins is what the Eagles have to beat this season. We don’t think so. A second place schedule, the NFC East (most notably two games against McNabb and the Redskins), and the AFC South is just too much for a brand new quarterback to be able to overcome. The Eagles will inevitably be quite exciting this year once again, especially with WRs DeSean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin catching passes and returning kicks and punts, but there isn’t enough firepower to make the playoffs or finish better than .500.

Source: BetUS Locker Room 2010 Philadelphia Eagles Predictions Featured on: Handicapperspicks.com