New York Jets vs. Denver Broncos
Pick: Denver Broncos +3
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Last week there was a very “obvious” bet on the board – how could you not take the Packers at just -2.5 over the Redskins? How did that work out for Green Bay? We were on Washington in that one. This week there’s another very obvious one. How can you not back the mighty Jets (the best team in the league according to many people) at just -3 over the lowly 2-3 Broncos? Last week the line begged you to take the Packers as a small favorite and we see the same thing here. Beware the call of the siren! The public isn’t heeding this warning, lining up 3-to-1 on New York. The Jets are off to a big start, and a big Monday Night football win. But the injury issues on the defensive side are taking their toll. The Jets have done a great job against the run, but they are getting torched in their secondary and, having Darelle Revis ailing just isn’t helping matters. The Jets are ranked just 23rd in the league against the pass, allowing 235 yards per game.

That plays right into Denver’s strength, as Kyle Orton is having a huge year. Orton has thrown for over 1,700 yards already. To put that in perspective, at this pace he would shatter Dan Marino’s single season record of 5,084 yards. While inexperienced quarterbacks can get in trouble against a blitzing Jets team, but experienced calm QBs can find the open man one-on-one. The Broncos also may get a boost having Knowshon Moreno back in the backfield. Mark Sanchez has done an excellent job running the Jets offense as he is yet to throw an interception through five weeks. The Jets are content to run the ball and Sanchez is making a lot of safe throws resulting in just six yards per pass attempt. Sooner or later the teams are going to start putting eight in the box and daring the Jets to take chances and that is where Sanchez has typically gotten into trouble.

The Broncos are rarely a home underdog and usually rise to the occasion in this situation as they own a 9-4-1 ATS mark as a home dog. In their last 62 home games vs. winning teams, Denver is 40-22 ATS. That includes a 10-2 ATS mark vs. teams like the Jets that have outscored their competition by 10+ ppg. Yes, the Jets are very very good. But this is a bad spot for them and the line is telling us something. If you can get +3.5 at -120 odds I recommend that. If not, you’ll get +3 at even odds.

Sunday afternoon will provide you with another chance to sink your teeth into the latest regular season NFL odds when the Denver Broncos kick their season off on the road against the Jacksonville Jaguars.
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Denver Broncos vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Game Date/Time: Sunday, September 12th, 1:00 ET
Game Location: Jacksonville Municipal Stadium, Jacksonville, FL
TV/Radio Broadcast: CBS, Westwood One, Sirius

NFL Odds: Denver Broncos (+2.5) -110 vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (-2.5) -110: Over/Under 40

Will this be the professional debut of Tim Tebow? It makes a lot of sense to bring the former Florida Gator into this game at some point for Denver, as this is essentially a de facto home game for Tebow, who played his high school ball in Jacksonville. It’s bad enough for the Jags that the crowd probably wouldn’t be a sell out without Denver fans in attendance, but if No. 15 comes into the game, all of a sudden, there will be a lot of people cheering for the visitors.

As for the rest of the Broncos that will take the field on Sunday, this is clearly a great spot for Kyle Orton to be in. Yes, Orton now has Tebow looking over his shoulder for his starting job, but thanks to a good training camp, he has already cashed in with a lucrative contract extension and will get to take on a defense that isn’t adept at rushing the passer and doesn’t have the greatest secondary in the world.

Speaking of quarterbacks looking over their shoulders, what about David Garrard in Jacksonville? He was clearly outperformed by Luke McCown in the preseason and might be in a spot in which he could be benched if he doesn’t play well.

The running game might be hurt by Maurice Jones-Drew’s nagging knee issues. He isn’t expected to miss this game, as he isn’t even on the injury report, but if Jones-Drew goes down, the Jags don’t have the depth behind him to make up for his absence.

Keep a close eye on Mike Sims-Walker, who was raved about in training camp. Many think that this could be a 1,500 yard receiver this season if Garrard (or some Jacksonville quarterback) can get the ball to him.

NFL Betting Insider Tip: For whatever reason, Denver tends to get off to a high flying start early in the season, as the Broncos have played seven of their L/10 games ‘over’ the ‘total’ in the month of September.

We tend to believe that the Jags are going to be doing more throwing the ball this year if the preseason is any indication. If that’s the case, these two teams might be in for a bit of a shootout. Both could easily get into the 20s, which would be more than enough to cash this ticket.

The latest NFL odds have this ‘total’ at 40; it’s not high enough!

My NFL Predictions: Denver Broncos/Jacksonville Jaguars Over 40

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BetUS Sportsbook is getting ready for the 2010 NFL season! In preparation, we are issuing our NFL expert picks on the AFC West for this year.
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San Diego Chargers (-325 odds) – The Bolts are in command of the AFC West this year, and there is no reason to get challenged by any other of these other contenders. San Diego has the best passing attack in this division by far, as QB Philip Rivers is head and shoulders above his competitionEven though RB LaDainian Tomlinson and DB Antonio Cromartie are both gone, this team shouldn’t be taking a step back.yo Look for rookie RB Ryan Mathews to have a big, big season.
My NFL Betting Predictions: 13-3, 1st place in AFC West

Oakland Raiders (+750 odds) – The biggest underdog of the bunch in the AFC West is the most intriguing team. The Raiders have a new look with QB Jason Campbell under center now in place of the bust known as JaMarcus Russell. Many forget that Campbell threw for 3,500+ yards and 20+ TD passes last year. He can totally change the face of this offense, which has been simply miserable in years past. The defense has a new captain as well, as rookie LB Rolando McLain could be the Defensive Rookie of the Year. The silver and black might be a year away from being back, but to challenge the .500 mark is a distinct possibility.
My NFL Predictions: 7-9, 2nd place in AFC West

Denver Broncos (+650 odds) – HC Josh McDaniels put his career on the line when he traded up into the middle of the first round to pick Florida Gators QB Tim Tebow to be his future quarterback. QB Kyle Orton wasn’t terrible last season in spite of the fact that there weren’t many expectations, but he will be crippled this year after the rift between McDaniels and WR Brandon Marshall finally sent the wide out to MiamiLast season’s collapse from 6-0 to miss the playoffs was embarrassing to say the least, and it’s hard to think that this year will be anything different. McDaniels could be on his way out after a second bad season.
My NFL Predictions: 6-10, 3rd place in AFC West

Kansas City Chiefs (+700 odds) – With DC Romeo Crennel now in the fold, many think the Chiefs could be a big difference maker this season. However, we tend to disagree. Having SS Eric Berry to work with is going to be great in KC, but he is still only one of 11 players on that defense. There aren’t enough pieces to the puzzle for this unit to be much improved. The addition of RB Thomas Jones as a free agent from the New York Jets is going to be a great pick up, but the problem at hand is that it may stunt the growth of RB Jamaal Charles, who led all rushers in the second half of the season in terms of yardage.
My NFL Predictions: 6-10, 4th place in AFC West

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