Louisville vs. California
Free Pick: California (March 19th 2010 – Doc’s Sports)
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Free Play from Doc’s Sports. #838 Take California over Louisville (Friday 9:55 pm CBS) California played a brutal schedule to open the season but they have finished strong winning six of their last seven games. The PAC-10 was bad this year but Cal has talent, experience, size, and coaching. Louisville had a major drop-off in talent this year and if they do not make shots from the arc, I see them losing this game by double-digits. The Cardinals shot under 45% this season from the field. As good of a coach as Rick Pitino is, Mike Montgomery is no slouch either. Louisville is just 1-4 ATS in their last five NCAA Tournament games. California is 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall. Don’t forget to sign-up for Doc’s NCAA Tournament Game of the Year which goes on Friday!
Purdue vs. Siena
Free Pick: Purdue -4 -110 odds (March 18th 2010 – Matt Fargo)
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When the matchups came out on Sunday night, one team that stood out to me was Siena. This is a very veteran team that has won in the tournament before. In 2008, the Saints defeated Vanderbilt by 21 points before losing to Villanova. Last year, they defeated Ohio St. in overtime before falling to Louisville. My opinion changed once the lines came out a few hours later however. I expected Siena to be catching at least eight points against Purdue but the number came out anywhere between 3.5 and 4.5 depending on the shop. As of Tuesday morning, the number sits at 4 pretty much across the board and this is a huge overreaction to the Purdue situation. The Boilermakers lost Robbie Hummel for the season back on February 24th against Minnesota and he is no doubt a huge loss which likely takes Purdue out of making any sort of big run during this tournament. There was talk of a possible number one tournament seed before Hummel went down and his absence was definitely taken into consideration when these seedings were announced. It did not help that the Boilermakers lost to Minnesota by 27 points in the Big Ten Tournament but I still think the seeding is a spot lower than it should be. This is still a very solid team that returned four other starters from last season and it will be up to center/forward JaJuan Johnson to pick up the slack in the post. The frontcourt was thin to begin with and it is even thinner now but the matchup here should not matter much. The backcourt is loaded and this time of year, a solid backcourt is key to making a tournament run. E’Twaun Moore is the only double-digit scorer up top but the depth of the backcourt more than makes up for the lack of another viable scorer. Purdue has a 1.28 assist/turnover ratio and the top three guards are all hitting better than 72 percent from the free throw line, another huge advantage. Taking nothing away from what Siena did this season, but it is lucky to be here. It won in overtime over Fairfield in the MAAC Championship thanks to a big second half comeback and after two years of NCAA Tournament upsets, it will not be sneaking up on anyone. The Saints defeated no other notable team this season as it went 0-4 against other tournament teams. Siena is once again going to be a public choice but the value clearly lies on the favorite. 3* Purdue Boilermakers
Louisville vs. Marquette
Free Pick: Marquette -1 (March 2nd 2010 – Jack Jones)
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Marquette is one of the hottest teams in the Big East and they’ve come through for us a lot over the last couple weeks. The Eagles are showing solid value again tonight and we’ll take advantage as Tuesday’s free pick. Marquette is 8-1 SU & 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games overall to improve to 19-9 this season and certainly would be in the NCAA Tournament if the season were to end today. The Eagles are 12-3 at home this season, and they face a Louisville team that actually has a losing road record this year. The Cardinals are 1-8 ATS off a win against a conference rival this season. Marquette is 12-4 ATS in conference games this season. The Eagles are one of the most underrated teams in the Big East, and they are going under the radar again tonight when they should be a much heavier home favorite.
