Purdue vs. Siena
Free Pick: Purdue -4 -110 odds (March 18th 2010 – Matt Fargo)
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When the matchups came out on Sunday night, one team that stood out to me was Siena. This is a very veteran team that has won in the tournament before. In 2008, the Saints defeated Vanderbilt by 21 points before losing to Villanova. Last year, they defeated Ohio St. in overtime before falling to Louisville. My opinion changed once the lines came out a few hours later however. I expected Siena to be catching at least eight points against Purdue but the number came out anywhere between 3.5 and 4.5 depending on the shop. As of Tuesday morning, the number sits at 4 pretty much across the board and this is a huge overreaction to the Purdue situation. The Boilermakers lost Robbie Hummel for the season back on February 24th against Minnesota and he is no doubt a huge loss which likely takes Purdue out of making any sort of big run during this tournament. There was talk of a possible number one tournament seed before Hummel went down and his absence was definitely taken into consideration when these seedings were announced. It did not help that the Boilermakers lost to Minnesota by 27 points in the Big Ten Tournament but I still think the seeding is a spot lower than it should be. This is still a very solid team that returned four other starters from last season and it will be up to center/forward JaJuan Johnson to pick up the slack in the post. The frontcourt was thin to begin with and it is even thinner now but the matchup here should not matter much. The backcourt is loaded and this time of year, a solid backcourt is key to making a tournament run. E’Twaun Moore is the only double-digit scorer up top but the depth of the backcourt more than makes up for the lack of another viable scorer. Purdue has a 1.28 assist/turnover ratio and the top three guards are all hitting better than 72 percent from the free throw line, another huge advantage. Taking nothing away from what Siena did this season, but it is lucky to be here. It won in overtime over Fairfield in the MAAC Championship thanks to a big second half comeback and after two years of NCAA Tournament upsets, it will not be sneaking up on anyone. The Saints defeated no other notable team this season as it went 0-4 against other tournament teams. Siena is once again going to be a public choice but the value clearly lies on the favorite. 3* Purdue Boilermakers
Texas Tech vs. Seton Hall
Free Pick: Texas Tech +9 (2010 NIT Tournament – Matt Fargo)
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In a normal situation, Seton Hall would be worth a look here but this situation is far from normal. The Pirates do not have much interest in playing in the NIT as they were holding out hope to make the NCAA Tournament with their 9-9 regular season conference record and 1-1 record in the Big East Tournament but it was pretty much a guarantee that they had no chance in an at-large bid. Seton Hall was respectable in the conference but it was far from dominant as it defeated only two teams by double-digits and those were against Providence and Rutgers, both of which finished the season under .500. As a favorite of more than five points, the Pirates are 1-6 ATS on the season. Texas Tech started the season very well as it got off to a 9-0 start and was ranked at one point. A 15-point loss at New Mexico turned the season around as the Red Raiders won only seven more games the rest of the way but the fact that it is playing in the NIT is a pretty big reward for a team that went 4-12 in the Big XII during the regular season. I do not think the Red Raiders should be playing in the postseason to be honest but here they are and that makes a bigger difference as motivation now comes into play. An extended season is a huge bonus for a team that even it thought would not happen. The Pirates also have some added turmoil they don’t need as forward Robert Mitchell was dismissed from the team for remarks he made against head coach Bobby Gonzalez. He told a reporter that “it’s hard to stay consistent as a player, when the coach isn’t consistent.” While this may be an isolated opinion, there is the possibility that it is felt by others and Mitchell was the only one who spoke out. This is something you don’t want to hear at any point in the season and even more so during a one-and-done scenario. 3* Texas Tech Red Raiders
Notre Dame vs. Connecticut
Free Pick: Notre Damme -1.5 (March 3rd 2010 – Matt Fargo)
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The Big East Conference has certainly lived up to its billing this season. The parity has been sensational once again with Syracuse being the only team that has pretty much dominated from start to finish. Five teams are separated by a game and a half in the middle of the pack and two of those teams square off tonight in South Bend. Just a short while ago, Connecticut was on the outside of the NCAA Tournament bubble but with three straight wins including victories against West Virginia and Villanova, the Huskies have snuck inside the group of 65. However a loss at home against Louisville in their last game has the questions coming up again about whether they should be in or not. As of right now, the projections still have Connecticut in but it is not by much. The home portion of the schedule is done and the Huskies will now have to win out on the road to keep their position and that is not going to be easy. They are 2-6 on the road this season and both of those wins came in their last two home games, including that game against Villanova but consistency remains an issue.
While Connecticut has been up and down, Notre Dame has had the same type of season and it is also making a strong statement to make it into the NCAA Tournament. Three straight losses in the middle of February likely had the Irish destined for the NIT but back-to-back wins over Pittsburgh and Georgetown, the latter being a road thrashing on Saturday, has them knocking on the door. Notre Dame is 16-3 at home this season and this is the final home game of the year and for the careers of five seniors including Luke Harangody who is likely out for the remainder of the year. The fact that Notre Dame has held it together while he has been absent shows a lot about this team and it will not be going out without a fight. In this matchup, Notre Dame has advantages in several important statistical categories including offensive efficiency, overall efficiency, offensive shooting, free throw shooting and assist/turnover ratio. That final category is important all the time, but even more so during the tournament and let’s face it, this is an early tournament game. The Irish have an assist/turnover ratio of 1.70 which is easily the best in the country and in home games, that rises to 1.91 which is almost unheard of in the college game. Conversely, the Huskies have a ratio of 0.75 in road games and that disparity is enormous. This is also a revenge game for the Irish who lost in Storrs by 12 points and that one was due to free throw shooting as Connecticut went to the line 15 more times, making 13 more of its attempts.
Don’t be surprised to see a reversal of that here. Play on home teams with a winning percentage between .600 and .800 that have covered the spread in two or more straight games with a line that is between +3 to -3 and now playing a team with a winning record below .600. This situation is 31-9 ATS (77.5 percent) since 1997. 3* Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Idaho vs. New Mexico State
Free Pick: New Mexico State -4.5 (February 24th 2010 – Matt Fargo)
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The way I see it, the markets have not caught up with New Mexico St. for some reason and we are still getting value on the Aggies so we will continue to ride. The Aggies started the season at 3-6 and that slow start can be attributed to a number of reasons but mostly it was due to not being at close to full strength. That is not that case anymore as New Mexico St. has everyone back and the biggest returnee was forward Wendell McKines. He has been back for 16 games and it is no surprise that the Aggies are 13-3 in those games with one loss coming against WAC heavyweight Nevada, another coming against a strong San Jose St. team and the last at Fresno St. He is averaging 11.2 ppg and 9.6 rpg and his presence makes this team nearly complete. The backcourt is one of the best in the conference and is even better with McKines back in the lineup. Guard Jahmar Young and guard Jonathan Gibson are doing something really special in Las Cruses. Young enters this game third in the WAC in scoring at 20.9 ppg while is Gibson is sixth at 18.2 ppg. They are the highest scoring teammates in the conference and as of last week’s NCAA’s stats, they were the only teammates in the national top 50 in scoring.
To make things even better, the Aggies got forward Troy Gillenwater back five games ago as he was reinstated from being academically ineligible. All he’s done in his first five games back is average 15.6 ppg and 7.4 rpg and it the best sixth man in the conference. The high-scoring backcourt combined with the new solid frontcourt of McKines, Gillenwater and center Hamidu Rahman, make New Mexico St. a tough matchup for anybody in the WAC as the Aggies now possess five double-digit scorers. The fifth starter is point guard Hernst Laroche who had a tidy 2.00 assist/turnover ratio. Idaho was a pleasant surprise to open the season with an 8-4 record but it then suffered six straight conference losses to take some of the wind out of its sails. To the Vandals credit, they did not quit and have gone a solid 5-3 over their last eight games including a 3-1 record on the road. However the one loss came against the best team they played and that was Utah St. by 18 points and while these Aggies may not quite be in line with those Aggies, they are close.
The RPI shows New Mexico St. with a 66 rank while Idaho is at 174 and those are pretty significant differences. With a variance that big, we usually see it in the line as well but that is not the case in this one as we once against catch New Mexico St. with an outstanding line. 3* New Mexico St. Aggies
