MLB Picks: September 16th 2011
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Pick: Chicago Cubs -157
I’m recommending a play on the Cubs on Friday. The Chicago Cubs have won six of Matt Garza’s last eight starts and the righty has pitched quite well. He’s allowed just 14 earned runs in those eight outings, to go along with 53 strikeouts in 51 1/3 innings. That’s a smoking, 2.46 ERA with a 9.30 Ks/9 IP mark. Garza owns a sub-3.00 ERA in 12 daytime starts this season and he’s had little trouble with the Houston Astros in three outings. But despite posting strong numbers against Houston, he’s yet to pick up a win against them. I believe he’ll do so today against an Astro team that’s won just 17 of their last 59 road games. Houston is also on a 12-26 slide when Wandy Rodriguez toes the road rubber. The lefty is 0-2 against the North Siders this season with an ERA above 5.00. And he’s not been nearly as effective in daytime action as he has been when the sun goes down. The Cubs are on a 5-1 run against starting pitchers with a WHIP above 1.30 and I expect another win, behind Garza, in this one. I’m laying the price with Chicago on Friday afternoon. Thanks! GL! Scott Spreitzer

Pick: San Diego Padres -113
On Friday the Free play is on the San Diego Padres. Game 914 at 10:05 eastern. The Padres fIt a solid 19-1 system that plays on home teams that are off a road loss and had 4 or less hits and no more than 1 error, vs an opponent off a road dog loss and scored 2 or less runs , also with 1 or less error. We don’t play games based just on a system. Arizona does have some angles on their side in this one. However the system is strong enough to at the very least make the Padres a free play. The Pitching also favors the Padres as they have Stauffer going tonight. Stauffer has a fine 2.76 home era and went 6+ shut out innings in his only home start vs Arizona. Miley makes the start for Arizona and he has a 4.80 era over his last 3 start and allowed 5 runs in 5 innings vs San Diego earlier in the season. The Padres have a better home bullpen era than Arizona has on the road as well. SO we will back the Padres. On Friday I have the 15-1 College Football Power System Side and the AL Game of the Month from a 90% Power System and out ream has Several strong angles backing them. College Football cashed with LSU last night and was 24 games over. 500 last season. Jump on and start what I expect to be a solid weekend of High end system winners on the right sides. For the Free play take The Padres. -Rob Vinciletti (Handicapperspicks.com)

MLB Picks: July 2nd 2011
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Pick: Chicago White Sox -105
The Chicago White Sox have been the most dominant team in the game in interleague play over the last few years. They are 10-6 in interleague play and have won 18 of 19 series against the Senior Circuit. The White Sox (41-42) are trying to win their 10th consecutive interleague series on the road after posting a 6-4 win Friday, their 14th in 19 meetings with the Cubs (34-49). White Sox are 41-15 in their last 56 interleague games overall. Phil Humber is one of the most underrated starters in all of baseball. Humber is 7-4 with a 2.89 ERA and 0.972 WHIP in 14 starts and two relief appearances this year. I’ll gladly fade Matt Garza, who is 4-6 with a 4.07 ERA and 1.333 WHIP in 14 starts this season for the Cubs. Garza is 1-3 with a 6.44 ERA and 1.943 WHIP in six career starts against the White Sox. The Sox are 5-1 in Humber’s last 6 starts overall, and 4-0 in his last 4 road starts. The Cubs are 1-10 in their last 11 during game 2 of a series. Take the White Sox Saturday.

Pick: Los Angeles Dodgers +124
Rarely ever will you get the Los Angeles Dodgers as this big of an underdog with Clayton Kershaw on the mound. We’ll gladly take the value here and side with Kershaw and the Dodgers to beat the crosstown rival Angels tonight. Kershaw is 8-3 with a 2.93 ERA and 1.028 WHIP this season, including 2-0 with a 1.00 ERA and 0.500 WHIP in interleague play. He has pitched back-to-back complete games against both the Tigers and Angels, giving up only 2 earned runs and 9 base runners in 18 innings while striking out 22. The Dodgers are 7-0 in Kershaws last 7 starts with 5 days of rest. Take the Dodgers on the Money Line. -Black Widow (Handicapperspicks.com)

MLB Picks: April 15th 2011
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Pick: Chicago Cubs +141
Yes, I realize that Colorado is playing solid baseball right now. However, off a doubleheader sweep against the Mets in the Big Apple yesterday and with travel, this is going to be a tough encore for the Rockies. Chicago took two-of-three at Houston and enters this contest with a much needed day of rest. On the bump for the Cubs will be former Rays hurler Matt Garza. In a pair of starts against the Brew Crew and the Pirates, Garza hasn’t been at his best allowing eight earned runs and 20 hits in 12.2 innings of work. However, it is important to note that Matt did fan 20 batters in those two performances. That’s almost two per inning! Colorado will send right-hander Jhoulys Chacin to the mound. In his last start at Pittsburgh, No. 45 wasn’t very sharp surrendering four earned runs and seven hits in 6.0 frames. The Rockies escaped with a 6-5 victory. Chacin has faced Chicago once and struggled a bit allowing four earned runs and six hits (five walks) through 7.2 frames. It’s never easy playing Colorado at Coors Field. The Rockies have won five straight in this series in their own backyard. However, the Cubs have been a road warrior lately with wins in 22 of their last 30 on foreign soil and they’re catching Colorado at the perfect time. Take Chicago with Garza. Thank you and best of luck, Tom Stryker.

Pick: Los Angeles Angels -121
No surprise that Jerred Weaver is part of our list as he’s just been off to a great start right where he left off in 2010. Through three starts he is 3-0 with a 0.87 ERA and 0.87 WHIP allowing less than a runner an inning to reach base. This will be his third start on the road already in 2011 as he has been great in his first two road starts vs. the Rays and the hot hitting Royals. From 2007-2009 Weaver made 5 starts vs. the White Sox where he had a 0.52 ERA. In 2010 for some reason he went 13 IP gave up 15 hits and 7 ER. I think he’ll bounce back on Friday though he faces a tough hitting club in Chicago. I think Weaver will get plenty of run support in the match up as I still do not trust 28 year old Phillip Humber in a starting role. Humber was good in his first start, but he was to be a reliever before the season started and I think they are extending him too much with another start here early in the season. Continue Readin. -Freddy Wills

Pick: San Francisco Giants -115
After a rough start, the defending champs have got it together while winning 5 of 7 games. That’s what happens when you have a slew of young aces, and one goes here in red hot Matt Cain (1.38 ERA). He’s walked just 2 in 13 innings and allowed 10 hits. Arizona is falling back to earth, as the pitching staff has been getting rocked, with losses of 6-1, 8-2 and 15-5. The Giants are 16-5 in Cain’s last 21 starts and the team is 20-7 in the last 27 meetings with Arizona. Play the Giants. -Jim Feist (Handicapperspicks.com)

Teams that are clearly heading in the opposite direction right now do battle in the AL East for the second game of a three game set, as the Tampa Bay Rays and Boston Red Sox wage MLB betting warfare against each other on Wednesday night.
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The Red Sox hung on for an 8-5 victory on Tuesday night to stretch out their lead over Tampa Bay in the AL Wild Card race to a pair of games. Boston is currently just a game behind the New York Yankees in the AL East, while the Rays are three back.

Tampa Bay Rays (44-32, -$354) vs. Boston Red Sox (47-31, +$671)
Game Date/Time: Wednesday, June 30th, 7:10 ET
Game Location: Fenway Park, Boston, MA
TV/Radio Broadcast: Sun Sports, MASN, XM

MLB Odds: Tampa Bay Rays -103 (Matt Garza – R) vs. Boston Red Sox -117 (Daisuke Matsuzaka – R): Total Over/Under 9.5

RHP Matt Garza badly needs to return to the form that he had two years ago when he was named the MVP of the ALCS against these Red Sox in order to pitch the Rays to victory tonight. Since seeing these Red Sox back on May 26th, Garza has watched his ERA balloon from 2.37 all the way up to the 4.10 that it sits at as we speak. Yes, his 8-5 record does match his win total from a year ago and is only three shy of his 11-9 season the year that Tampa Bay went to the World Series, but Garza will be the first to tell you that these aren’t acceptable numbers. He has allowed 13 homers in his 15 starts this year, which is on a pace to destroy the 25 home runs he gave up in all of ’09. Three of those bombs came in his last start against Boston.

RHP Daisuke Matsuzaka, on the other hand, has been pitching out of his mind since that same point in May. Dice-K has only allowed six earned runs over his last 32.1 innings of work, which has dropped his ERA down to 4.50 from the 7.89 it was at in the middle of May. The righty is 2-4 with a 4.05 ERA in his career against Tampa Bay, but comes into this game with a 5-2 mark in his nine starts overall this year.

MLB Insider Tip: Tampa Bay is a woeful 20-54 in its L/74 trips to Fenway Park, and even though history is starting to right itself with that trend, there is no doubt that it is still worth noting.

It doesn’t matter how many injuries the Red Sox seem to incur. They always seem to find a way to keep firing back and winning games. Tampa Bay is clearly on the wrong side of a lot of close decisions right now, and we wouldn’t be surprised to see yet another close game go against it in Beantown on Wednesday night.
Stick with the Sox in MLB betting action on Hump Day.

My MLB Prediction: Boston Red Sox (Matsuzaka)
Source: BetUS Locker Room Featured on: Handicapperspicks.com

Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Free Pick: Kansas City Royals +220
Courtesy of Mike Rose (Handicapperspicks.com)
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Tropicana Field should be ready to rock and roll tonight for the first of a four game series between the Kansas City Royals and the Tampa Bay Rays.

The Royals have shown signs of promise this year, but they’ve lost a number of one run and extra inning games this season. They just wrapped up a six game home stand in which they went 2-4, but lost two of those games by one run and one in extras.

Tampa Bay is having no such problems. The 2008 American League champs are rolling, as they have the best record in baseball and have won four straight games.

No Royals pitcher has been better since the acquisition of C Jason Kendall than RHP Luke Hochevar. The righty was lit up for a 6.55 ERA a year ago, but he has settled down into four respectable starts this year.

Hochevar, formerly the #1 overall pick in the MLB Draft, is 2-0 with a 3.55 ERA, and he is out of the chute full of potential for a great third year in the majors.

RHP Matt Garza’s most recent start was his only lousy effort of the season to date. He allowed five runs in as many innings of work in the Rays’ 6-5 loss to the Blue Jays; the only loss so far on this home stand.

For the season, the right-hander is 3-1 with a 2.17 ERA, as he hadn’t allowed more than one earned run in any of his previous three starts.

Tampa Bay is just 2-10 in Garza’s L/12 starts against the AL Central.

It’s hard to argue with anything that Garza has done on the mound this year, but it’s also hard to lay this type of price on him in this game.

The Royals are a significantly better team than their record and history indicate, and we’ll take our chances tonight at some hefty odds that Hochevar can keep his solid season going and lead Kansas City to victory.

Take the big odds and back the Royals over Tampa on Thursday night!