New Orleans Hornets vs. Los Angeles Lakers
Free Pick: Lakers -5.5 (March 29th 2010 – Jack Jones)
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The life has been sucked out of the Hornets as we near the end of the season. New Orleans knows they have no shot of making the playoffs, and they have started to quit competing on a nightly basis because of it. New Orleans is 3-12 SU & 3-12 ATS in their last 15 games overall. Chris Paul has returned, but the Hornets’ coaching staff isn’t going to push him considering there’s no need to chance re-injury when they have no chance to make the postseason. Not only is this team losing of late, but their last 6 losses have all come by double-digits. So they really haven’t even been all that competitive. The Lakers have won 8 of their last 9 games overall and they are trying to clinch the #1 seed in the Western Conference with a couple more victories. This play also falls under a system that is 50-15 (77%) over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet on road favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (LA LAKERS) – after a road game where both teams score 100 or more points, second half of the season. Bet the Lakers.
Miami Heat vs. Milwaukee Bucks
Free Pick: Milwaukee -2.5 (March 26th 2010 – Doc’s Sports)
Confidence in the Bucks for bettors is at a low point right now after this team laid an egg against a really bad Philadelphia team last time out on this same court. The Bucks were favored by 10 in that game but lost by 15. And then Miami goes to Chicago last night and blows out the Bulls that were favored and that many public bettors were behind. So the general consensus is that Miami will roll tonight. But if you have followed our plays you know we don’t follow the public sentiment. This Bucks team deserves a bad game every now and then but this team has played its best lately against playoff competition and this squad has been playing some of the best defense in the NBA, which will give you a chance to win every night, even when your offense is not clicking. Miami comes into this game on a back-to-back and they are just 6-9 ATS in these situations this season. Andrew Bogut for the Bucks was a late scratch and will miss this game but we think that this team will rise up in his absence and that the home crowd will push this team through. Milwaukee has won and covered three straight in this series and we think they have the Heat’s number again tonight.
Detroit Pistons vs. New Jersey Nets
Free Pick: Detroit +1.5 (March 26th 2010 – Big Al McMordie)
At 8:05 pm, our complimentary selection is on the Detroit Pistons + over the New Jersey Nets. With KiKi Vandeweghe’s men closing in (possibly) on the worst season record in NBA history, it’s awfully hard to back them as a favorite — even against this dreadful Detroit Piston club. New Jersey did win its last game, 93-79 vs Sacramento, but dating back 20 years, NBA teams with a win percentage less than .300 off a win in the last 24 games of the season, are a poor 56-112 (33% ATS) at home. Take the Pistons on Friday night. Good luck, as always…Big Al McMordie.
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Golden State Warriors vs. New Orleans Hornets
Free Pick: Golden State +6.5 (March 8th 2010 – Tony George)
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While I do not like backing NBA teams on a 5th game road trip, I cannot ignore the fact for the Hornets they have dropped 6 out 7 games SU, and on offense are struggling to find the right mix with Chris Paul still out. This is a big number to lay for a mediocre team. The Warriors have played well and competed with a short roster, but they are used to playing with little bench support. This is more of a play against a struggling Hornets team, than a play for Golden State. There is double revenge here for the Warriors at play. This is a big number in the NBA in what should be a high scoring game as the Warriors hate playing any defense, but I think they can score here and have a better backcourt in this Match-up. I will grab the points against a struggling team.
Free NBA Pick: Sacramento Kings +8.5 (Jeff Alexander)
Not having Jason Terry and his 17 ppg will hurt the Mavs tonight against a Kings team that is playing well, having won 3 of its last 4 games SU and 4 in a row ATS. Dallas has been an extremely poor choice in the home chalk as it is only 4-21-1 ATS in its last 26 games as a home favorite. The Mavericks are also just 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400. Meanwhile, the Kings are 11-4-2 ATS in their last 17 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600 and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog of 5.0-10.5 points. Look for the Kings to keep this one within the number.
Free NBA Pick: Los Angeles Lakers -3 (Tony George)
Trends seem to reverse with NBA teams and while I like going against a team off an OT loss, I expect the Lakers to rebound tonight. They are 1-6-1 ATS their last 8 games. The mis-match at the forward position here is in favor of the Lakers and I think Bynum gets the better of Ratliff at the post, and Kobe will do his thing. He had 39 last night in a loss at Miami. LA scoring 104 ppg their last 5 games and Charlotte scoring 88 in the same timeframe. Too much offense and no doubt a pissed off bunch from LA that needs a win here on the road.
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Cleveland Cavaliers vs. New Jersey Nets
Free Pick: New Jersey +10 (March 3rd 2010 – Doc’s Sports)
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Going with the worst team in the NBA against one of the best teams but the Nets have a strong history in this series and they have been playing some of their best basketball of the season as of late. They have covered four straight in this series and they have also covered in 22 of the last 30 meetings. Although it hasn’t been evident in their ATS results lately the Nets have been playing better and have been keeping games close and have just missed on covering a couple lines recently and they did get that big win in Boston last weekend. If Cleveland has had a weakness lately it has been going on the road where they have dropped two of their last four and they needed OT to get by the Raptors in another. Also think the Cavs might come in and not give 100% as this game is on the road and this is an opponent that they will probably take lightly.
Toronto Raptors vs. Houston Rockets
Free NBA Pick: Over 214 (March 1st 2010 – Doc’s Sports)
Both teams are giving up a ton of points lately. The Rockets have given up an average of 115 per game in their last five games, and not one of those games was an overtime contest! They allowed a whopping 133 last time out on the road at Utah. This has to be considered one of the worst defensive teams in the NBA since the trade deadline. And look who they face tonight, the No. 26 defensive team in the NBA (and the No. 4 offense). Toronto gives up a whopping 109 PPG on the road and they have been pretty bad in that area lately and they are almost always good to put up 100+ a night, even on a decent defense, which is a category that this Houston team just doesn’t fall under right now. The over is 18-9-1 in Toronto’s road games this season and the over is 17-12 in Houston’s home games this season. We think this is going to be a barnburner and this one could get close to 220.
Utah Jazz vs. Los Angeles Clippers
Free NBA Pick: Clippers +6.5 (March 1st 2010 – Black Widow)
We’ll back the Clippers as a big home underdog to the Utah Jazz as Monday’s free pick. The Jazz are just one game over .500 on the road this season and should not be this heavily favored against a Clippers’ team that is actually 17-12 at home this year. L.A. only gives up 96.2 points/game at home against teams who are averaging 100.3 points/game. The Clippers are 3-0 S.U. & 3-0 ATS in their last 3 home games. Utah is just 6-17 ATS (-12.7 Units) in road games after allowing 100 points or more 2 straight games over the last 3 seasons. The Clippers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record and 11-3-1 ATS in their last 15 home games overall. Take the Clippers and the points.
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New York Knicks vs. Cleveland Cavaliers
Free NBA Pick: New York Knicks +12 (March 1st 2010 – Big Al McMordie)
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At 7:05 pm, our complimentary selection is on the New York Knicks plus the points over Cleveland. The Cavs have won both meetings vs. New York this season, but each victory has been rather close. Cleveland beat New York 113-106 on February 6, as a 12-point home favorite, and also defeated the Knicks 100-91 at Madison Square Garden back in November. Overall, the Cavs have won seven straight in this series, but the last four have all been by single-digits. And I expect another close game tonight. Although the Knicks have dropped nine of their last 10 games straight-up, most have been close defeats, with only two of the 10 coming by margins larger than tonight’s 12-point spread. And since 2006, New York is a solid 25-5 ATS as an underdog of +10 or more points, if its opponent is off a straight-up win, including a perfect 13-0 ATS if its foe won by 10 points or less in its last game. With Cleveland in off an 8-point overtime win at Toronto, this game falls into our 13-0 tightener. Take New York. Good luck, as always…Big Al McMordie.
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Detroit Pistons vs. Denver Nuggets
Free Pick: Detroit +10.5 (February 26th 2010 – Jimmy the Moose)
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The Pistons are having another season to forget and the end of the year can’t come soon enough for this club. Tonight they face a Nuggets team that they have had success against and they are hoping that trend continues tonight. There aren’t many stats that support the Pistons in most games that they play but look for them to keep tonight’s game closer than the line would indicate. Detroit is 7-20 SU on the road but 11-15-1 ATS. Detroit has covered the line in 2 of their last 3 games coming into this one.
Denver was on the road to face the Golden State Warriors on Thursday night and will be the more tired of the two clubs tonight. The Nuggets are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 8 games played with 0-day rest between action. Denver is 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400. In their last 17 games vs. a team with a SU losing record they are 3-13-1 ATS. The Nuggets are 7-17-1 ATS in their last 25 games as a favorite.
There is no doubt that the Nuggets are the better team by far in this one but look for them to play down to their competition tonight. The Pistons are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 trips to Denver. In the last 16 meetings overall between the clubs the Nuggets are 3-13 ATS. Look for the trend to continue as the Pistons cover the line again tonight.
Portland Trailblazers vs. New Jersey Nets
Free Pick: New Jersey +8 (February 23rd 2010 – John Martin)
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I feel like the Nets are catching too many points at home tonight. Yes, New Jersey is the worst team in the league, but this is more of a play against Portland who is not one of the better road teams in the game. The Blazers have lost 4 of their last 6 overall and injuries have really depleted this team. Brandon Roy remains in the lineup, but he’s far from 100%. The Nets have been playing much better of late, going 8-4-1 ATS in their last 13 games overall. Portland is 7-23 ATS versus terrible defensive teams – shooting pct defense of >=48% since 1996. Cash in with New Jersey as the underdog.
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