Washington Wizards vs. Orlando Magic
Free Pick: Over 194 Points (April 7th 2010 – Doc’s Sports)
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The Wizards have been playing some pretty good defense lately but we think they run into a buzzsaw tonight in Orlando and we see the Magic having a great offensive night tonight – good enough to pass this total mostly on the strength of their own offense. This is the third game in four nights for Washington and we just don’t see them putting up much defensive resistance tonight. Orlando has had two nights off and we think they shoot the lights out tonight. This team averages 104 PPG at home and we think they can do even better than that tonight. While some teams like to slow the pace down once they have a big lead Orlando is not shy about jacking up threes every time down the court when they are up by 20 in the fourth quarter. The Wizards have played pretty well offensively their last couple games, even though those games were against inferior defenses, but it is not out of the realm of possibility that they can score here tonight. But we think Orlando gets in the 110 range tonight with the Wizards making up the difference to get this one over the posted number.
New York Knicks vs. Indiana Pacers
Free Pick: New York Knicks +10 (Black Widow)
Inflated line here with the odds makers giving the Indiana Pacers way too much respect. Hard to believe Indiana could be favored by double-digits tonight against the Knicks considering the Pacers are just 29-48 this season. Indiana has been playing well lately, but they don’t have many wins against playoff teams during their run. And they have not fared well against the Knicks. New York is 4-1 SU in their last 5 meetings with Indiana, winning by 43, 7, 4 and 9 points. The Knicks are 26-11 ATS (+13.9 Units) in a road game where the total is greater than or equal to 210 over the last 2 seasons. The Knicks are 33-14 ATS (+17.6 Units) when playing their 3rd game in 4 days over the last 2 seasons. Playing on little rest has not hurt this team one bit, and they have a lot of confidence following their overtime win against the celtics last night. Take New York and the points.
Denver Nuggets vs. Oklahoma City Thunder
Free Pick: Under 211 Points (Jimmy Boyd)
The Nuggets aren’t the same high scoring team on the road. In fact, the Nuggets have been held under the century mark in their last 4 road games. Plus, OKC has proven to be a quality defensive team on its home floor, holding its opponents to only 95.9 points on the season. The last time these two teams faced off, the Thunder gave up 119 points to the Nuggets in a 29-point loss. In addition, they gave up 140 points in a defeat to Utah last night. With these two games in mind, I expect OKC to really tighten the screws on the defensive end and to be careful not to get into a track meet. History is certainly on our side here as home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210, revenging a loss to an opponent of 10 points or more, off a road loss, are 82-40 Under since 1996. Lastly, Denver is 23-10 Under in road games where the total is greater than or equal to 200 this season. Bet the Under tonight.
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Utah Jazz vs. Los Angeles Lakers
Free Pick: Under 204.5 (April 2nd 2010 – Doc’s Sports Picks)
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Six straight meetings in this series have gone under the posted number. Not one of three meetings this season has gone over 200. Utah has been scoring a lot of points lately but they have had a ridiculous schedule lately that has seen them play the worst defensive teams in the NBA over and over. They have played only one good defensive club in their last 10 games. The Lakers are a Top 10 defense and this team will really look to bring the defensive intensity at home after three straight poor defensive showings on the road. This team plays very stout defense at home and they allow just 95 PPG, on average, on this court. This is a big game for both teams and we think the defensive intensity will be ramped up on both sides, and both of these teams can play good defense and we just don’t see this one being a barnburner, especially looking at the results of the last few meetings. The under is 7-2 in the Lakers last nine home games and 13-6 in their last 19 games as a listed favorite.
Washington Wizards vs. Houston Rockets
Free NBA Pick: Washington +7 (March 30th 2010 – Jack Jones)
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Houston is deflated right now, knowing that their chance of making the postseason have gone out the window. Washington is obviously struggling right now, but it’s not like they haven’t been competitive during their dreadful 15-game losing streak. Usually a road team that has lost 15 straight would be a heavier underdog than 7 points to a team with a .500 record like Houston. This is a trap, and we’re not biting as we’ll side with the underdog Wizards who will be much more motivated heading into this one, trying to end their skid. The Rockets are 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games overall.
This play also falls under a system that is 79-46 (63%) ATS since 1996. It tells us to bet on road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (WASHINGTON) – after 8 or more consecutive losses. These teams tend to be great to back when they get on these long losing streaks, because there becomes overwhelming value against the spread. Houston has a plethora of injuries right now as well with Shane Battier, Jared Jeffries, Kevin Martin and David Andersen all watching from the sidelines. Take the Wizards.
San Antonio Spurs vs. New Jersey Nets
Free Pick: New Jersey +8 (March 29th 2010 – Big Al McMordie)
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At 7:30 pm, our complimentary selection is on the New Jersey Nets + the points over San Antonio. Last night, we cashed a big High Roller selection on the Spurs over Boston (we’re now 5-0 our last 5 High Rollers), but the Spurs were in one of their best roles on Sunday (they were on the road, playing with revenge); tonight, they’re in one of their worst. And that is to play AGAINST San Antonio if it is playing without rest, and is PK or Favored off back-to-back wins. Since 2005, the Spurs have been very poor in this situation. With San Antone off back-to-back BIG wins over Cleveland and Boston, look for the Spurs to stumble a bit vs. the league’s worst team, New Jersey. And, of course, it certainly wouldn’t hurt if Gregg Popovich decided later in the day to rest Timmy Duncan (this is one of only a few “back-to-backs” left on San Antonio’s schedule, which Coach Pop likes to utilize to rest Timmy). That would make our pointspread, here, look even more attractive. So, this is also a play where it makes sense to get down earlier, rather than later. Good luck, as always…Al McMordie.
Los Angeles Lakers vs. Houston Rockets
Free Pick: LA Lakers -6 (March 27th 2010 – Mike Lineback)
Lakers will come out “angry focused” tonight, after getting their butts kicked last night vs. Oklahoma City. Houston are seriously banged up. Battier is out. Kevin Martin hurt his shoulder and missed Thursday’s game, and this is on top of Anderson, Hill & Jeffries injuries, All may miss this game as well. Regardless. Houston can’t matchup with Los Angeles. In particular, Kobe, Gasol & Odom, and LA’s overall size advantage. In addition, Houston are not a good defensive team, and don’t have anybody to slow Kobe. Kobe & team assert their offensive & defensive will early.
Portland Trailblazers vs. New Orleans Hornets
Free Picks: New Orleans Hornets +3 (March 27th 2010 – Black Widow)
The Hornets know their chances of making the playoffs have basically gone out the window, but they’d love to play the role of spoiler tonight against the Portland Trail Blazers tonight. New Orleans has been a solid home team all season, going 22-13 on their home floor. The Blazers are just 6-15 ATS (-10.5 Units) off a home win this season. Portland is 8-24 ATS (-18.4 Units) versus terrible defensive teams – shooting pct defense of >=48% since 1996. Chris Paul has returned to the line-up for New Orleans, and he will help them close out the season strong. The Trail Blazers are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games following a SU win of more than 10 points. The Hornets are a superb 25-8 ATS in their last 33 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Take New Orleans and the points.
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Miami Heat vs. Chicago Bulls
Free NBA Pick: Chicago Bulls -1 (March 25th 2010 – Black Widow)
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With Derek Rose back on the floor, the Bulls have won their last 2 games since he returned from injury. They went on the road to beat the 76ers by 14 and handled the Houston Rockets at hom by 10. Now they’ve had 2 days’ rest to prepare for the Miami Heat, one of the teams they are trailing in the Eastern Conference standings. Chicago sits in 9th place in the East and are they are looking to finish off the season with a bang to sneak into the playoffs. Home-court advantage has really been a big factor when Miami and Chicago get together. The home team is 5-0 SU L5 & 8-1 SU L9 meetings in this series. The Bulls are a completely different team with Rose running the show, and they can beat anyone in the league when he’s in there. The Heat are just 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games as a road underdog of 4.5 points or less. Take Chicago and lay the points.
Los Angeles Lakers vs. San Antonio Spurs
Free Pick: Los Angeles Lakers +1 (March 24th 2010 – Big Al McMordie)
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At 9:30 pm, our complimentary selection is on the Los Angeles Lakers plus the point over San Antonio. The Spurs are playing their best basketball of this not-so-young season, so from coach Gregg Popovich’s perspective, it’s “better late than never.” They went into Oklahoma City on Monday and upset the Thunder, and that qualified as their biggest win of the year — even more than their 20-point blowout of the Lakers earlier this season. And that’s because San Antonio rebounded from a heartbreaking overtime loss at Philips Arena on Sunday, so they showed a lot of mettle in winning at OKC when playing on the road without rest. But even though the Spurs are finally playing well, they will be without Tony Parker tonight, and his quickness over Derek Fisher was one of the few, if any, matchup advantages the Spurs had over the Lakers. Surely, Duncan is, at best, a break-even proposition against Gasol. And San Antone has nobody who can guard either Lamar Odom or Kobe Bryant. The Lakers only “negative” in this game is that they might lack the requisite motivation, given they’re firmly locked into the #1 seed out west. But Los Angeles generally gets up to play the Spurs, and we’ll take L.A. as the small underdog here. Good luck, as always…Big Al McMordie.
San Antonio Spurs vs. Oklahoma City Thunder
Free Pick: Oklahoma City -4 (March 22nd 2010 – Big Al McMordie)
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At 8 pm, our complimentary selection is on the Oklahoma City Thunder minus the points over San Antonio. OKC plays with revenge from an 8-point loss in the Alamo City in February (and a 1-point defeat at home in January). And the Thunder are a solid 20-11 ATS when playing with revenge this season! Last night, the Spurs had to go into overtime at Atlanta when they blew a four point lead with a little over a minute to play in regulation. Off that heartbreaking defeat, look for the unrested Spurs to have a tough time tonight against the younger, more athletic Thunder. Not only will they once again be without Tony Parker (who’s scheduled to miss the rest of the regular season), but Manu Ginobili has made just 9 of his 36 shots this season vs. Oklahoma City! The Thunder sit one game ahead of San Antonio in the Western Conference standings, and still have hopes of catching the Jazz for home court advantage in the playoffs. OKC is 22-11 at home this season, and I think they’ll roll over the Spurs. Lay the points. Good luck, as always…Big Al McMordie.
Utah Jazz vs. Oklahoma City Thunder
Free Pick: Over 205 (March 14th 2010 – Rob Vinciletti)
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On Sunday the Free play in the NBA is over the total in the Utah at Ok.City game. Rotation numbers 879/80 at 7:05 eastern. What we want to do is play the over for road dogs of 4 or less like the Jazz, if they were a road dog of 3 or less in their last game and are taking on an opponent like the Thunder that scored 100 or more as ahome favorite of -10 or more in their last game. Since 1995 this system has popped up 8 times gooing over in every game. Utah has gone over all 4 times on the road off a road game where they scored 90 or less, while the Thunder have gone over 6 of 8 times at home when the total is 205 to 210. In fact all 5 road team traveling into Ok.City have gone over after scoring 90 or less on the road in their previous game. Look for this one to be played at a fast pace and go over the total. Now for Sunday I have a 94% NBA Power system play that wins by over 15 points per game and a Conference Championship system in college hoops. Both these plays will cash. Jump on and end your wek with the Csh. For the free play go over the total in the Jazz at Thunder game. RV
San Antonio Spurs vs. Cleveland Cavaliers
Free NBA Pick: Under (March 8th 2010 – Big Al McMordie)
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At 7:05 pm, our complimentary selection is on the ‘under’ in the Spurs/Cavaliers game. On Friday night, this looked like a heckuva match-up on paper. The Spurs have just started to play their best basketball of the season, while the Cavaliers have been the league’s best team. But then, on Saturday, San Antonio’s 2nd leading scorer, point guard Tony Parker, broke a bone in his hand, and will miss the rest of the regular season. And coach Mike Brown decided to rest LeBron James against Milwaukee (in part because of a gimpy ankle), and the Cleveland Plain Dealer reports that James may sit out tonight’s game vs. the Spurs as well. With all this star power (and fire power) on the sidelines tonight, the rotations will be a bit messed up, and I look for the offensive efficiency of each team to suffer a bit. After all, both teams run their offenses thru Parker and James. Let’s play on the Cavs and Spurs to sail ‘under’ the total tonight.
Memphis Grizzlies vs. Chicago Bulls
Free NBA Pick: Chicago Bulls (March 4th 2010 – Big Al McMordie)
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At 8:05 pm, our complimentary selection is on the Chicago Bulls over the Memphis Grizzlies. In its last game, the Bulls were blown out, 116-92, as a 1-point home favorite, by the Atlanta Hawks. Thus, Chicago failed to cover the spread by 25 points! Off that big home loss, I look for Vinny Del Negro’s men to rebound here at home vs. the Memphis Grizzlies, as they fall into a super 34-8 ATS system. What we want to do is play on any NBA home team off a home game in which they failed to cover by 25+ points, if they’re matched up against a foe off exactly one win. NBA teams, off an embarassing game in front of their home fans, tend to play much better if their next game is also at home. With Memphis in off an upset win last night at New Orleans, we’ll fade the Grizzlies here at the United Center
Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Dallas Mavericks
Free Pick: Minnesota +14 (March 3rd 2010 – Big Al McMordie)
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At 8:35 pm, our complimentary selection is on the Minnesota Timberwolves plus the points over Dallas. The Mavericks come into this ball game red-hot, as they have won eight straight, including four straight ATS. And, in their last game, the Mavs went into Charlotte — a very tough place for visitors — and escaped with an 89-84 win, after being down big early in the game. In their win streak, Dallas has defeated such teams as Phoenix, Orlando, Miami, the Lakers, Atlanta and New Orleans, so this is a very impressive stretch of games! Still, Dallas is a very poor 0-20 ATS its last 20 as a home favorite of more than 4 points since November 20, 2009! And Minnesota falls into a 161-111 ATS system of mine that plays on certain rested, double-digit underdogs off three or more SU losses. Take the points with Minnesota.
Atlanta Hawks vs. Chicago Bulls
Free NBA Pick: Atlanta Hawks +2 (March 1st 2010 – Jimmy Boyd)
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I know the Hawks just had a tough OT game with Milwaukee Sunday, but they can turn around and get a win in Chicago tonight against a banged up Bulls team. It really hurts the Bulls against a team with so much athleticism to have an athletic, energy guy like Joakim Noah out. It also hurts the Bulls that Luol Deng is not at 100 percent. Atlanta has really had Chicago’s number, winning 6 of the last 7 meetings. It’s also nice to know that the Hawks are 7-2-2 ATS in their last 11 Monday games, which is a tough day for many NBA teams to play, and 21-10 ATS in their last 31 games when their starting 5 players combine for more than 160 minutes of the previous day. We’ll side with the Hawks here tonight.
