Purdue vs. Siena
Free Pick: Purdue -4 -110 odds (March 18th 2010 – Matt Fargo)
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When the matchups came out on Sunday night, one team that stood out to me was Siena. This is a very veteran team that has won in the tournament before. In 2008, the Saints defeated Vanderbilt by 21 points before losing to Villanova. Last year, they defeated Ohio St. in overtime before falling to Louisville. My opinion changed once the lines came out a few hours later however. I expected Siena to be catching at least eight points against Purdue but the number came out anywhere between 3.5 and 4.5 depending on the shop. As of Tuesday morning, the number sits at 4 pretty much across the board and this is a huge overreaction to the Purdue situation. The Boilermakers lost Robbie Hummel for the season back on February 24th against Minnesota and he is no doubt a huge loss which likely takes Purdue out of making any sort of big run during this tournament. There was talk of a possible number one tournament seed before Hummel went down and his absence was definitely taken into consideration when these seedings were announced. It did not help that the Boilermakers lost to Minnesota by 27 points in the Big Ten Tournament but I still think the seeding is a spot lower than it should be. This is still a very solid team that returned four other starters from last season and it will be up to center/forward JaJuan Johnson to pick up the slack in the post. The frontcourt was thin to begin with and it is even thinner now but the matchup here should not matter much. The backcourt is loaded and this time of year, a solid backcourt is key to making a tournament run. E’Twaun Moore is the only double-digit scorer up top but the depth of the backcourt more than makes up for the lack of another viable scorer. Purdue has a 1.28 assist/turnover ratio and the top three guards are all hitting better than 72 percent from the free throw line, another huge advantage. Taking nothing away from what Siena did this season, but it is lucky to be here. It won in overtime over Fairfield in the MAAC Championship thanks to a big second half comeback and after two years of NCAA Tournament upsets, it will not be sneaking up on anyone. The Saints defeated no other notable team this season as it went 0-4 against other tournament teams. Siena is once again going to be a public choice but the value clearly lies on the favorite. 3* Purdue Boilermakers
Wright State vs. Butler
Free Pick: Butler -7 (March 9th 2010 – Black Widow)
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This is a home game for Butler in the Horizon League Championship, played in Indianapolis, Indiana. Butler lost in the title game last season to Cleveland State, and went on to lose in the first round of the NCAA Tournament to LSU. With all 5 starters back from that team, this Bulldogs’ squad will be extra motivated to make sure they continue their momentum by winning the championship this time around. Butler is riding the nation’s longest winning streak at 19 games. “It’s a little bit of unfinished business – you feel like that when you get all that way and then you don’t finish the deal,” Bulldogs forward Matt Howard said. “It’s the same thing this year. We’re focused, we want to win. We don’t feel comfortable with where we are.” Wright State is 3-11 ATS in all road games this season, and 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in road games off a win against a conference rival this season. In a home game for the Bulldogs, and with this team looking to make amends for last year’s loss in the title game, we’ll take Butler and lay the points.
Wisconsin vs. Illinois
Free Pick: Wisconsin -3.5 (March 7th 2010 – John Ryan)
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3* graded play on Wisconsin as they travel to face Illinois set to start at 2:00 EST and this game will be seen on ESPN. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that Wisconsin will win this game by more than 3 points. Wisconsin is playing very well and are coming of BB blowout wins defeating Indiana by 32 points and Iowa by 27 points. Wisconsin is 11-0 ATS (+11.0 Units) after 2 straight blowout wins by 20 points or more since 1997. Illinois has shot under 40% in 3 of their past 5 games and the stats clearly show that they are a very tired team. Wisconsin is projected to shoot between 40 and 46% and Illinois is just 3-6 ATS this season and 9-27 ATS the past 3 seasons allowing opponents to shoot within this range. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 36-11 ATS for 77% winners since 1997. Play against home teams in March where the line is +3 to -3 that are good passing teams averaging >=16 assists/game on the season. Take Wisconsin.
Free NCAA Pick: Samford +3 (Jack Jones)
It is extremely difficult to beat a team 3 times in the same season, and that’s what The Citadel is facing tonight as they take on Samford in the Southern Conference Tournament Friday. The Citadel won by 1 and 4 points, respectively, in their two meetings with Samford this season. Samford is chomping at the bit to get some payback tonight in the third meeting. This play falls into a system that is 58-21 (73%) over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet on any team (SAMFORD) – revenging 2 straight losses where team scored < 60 points against opponent off a cover where the team lost straight up as an underdog. Samford brings more energy and passion to the floor tonight. Take Samford.
Free NCAA Pick: Georgia State +6 (Rocky Atkinson)
Georgia State is 9-2 ATS since 1997 in March. Georgia State is 18-5 ATS last 3 years revenging a road loss vs an opponent. Georgia State is 6-0 ATS since 1997 in 1st round tournament games. Georgia State is 7-0 ATS since 1997 in conference tournament games. Hofstra is 1-7 ATS last 3 years when playing with 5 or 6 days rest. Georgia State is allowing only 63.6 points per game overall and 62.6 points per game on the road this year. Panthers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a ATS loss. Panthers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 neutral site games as an underdog. Panthers are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 neutral site games. Panthers are 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a SU loss. Pride are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 Friday games. Pride are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 neutral site games as a favorite. We’ll recommend a small play on Georgia State tonight! Thanks and good luck, Rocky
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