Handicappers Picks

Butler Bulldogs vs. Michigan State Spartans
The 2010 Final Four tips off Saturday evening at Lucas Oil Stadium, as the hometown Butler Bulldogs will take on the Michigan State Spartans in a very even matchup. Click here to wager on this game at Betus.com

The Week That Was: Butler
Butler carried the banner for mid-major programs by working its way to the first Final Four in school history. Coach Brad Stevens, at the young age of 33, led his team to college basketball’s promised land by overseeing a masterful defensive effort in a 63-56 defeat of Kansas State last Saturday. The seven-point win in the West Regional final brought out the very best in a Butler team that wins with a very simple formula: defense, resilience, and late-game composure.

For the third straight NCAA Tournament game, Butler led for much of the proceedings but then fell behind with less than six minutes left in regulation. Just as they had done against Murray State and Syracuse, the Bulldogs faltered as the second half wore on, but regrouped to pull out a close win in the final few minutes.

In this game against second-seeded Kansas State, the fifth-seeded Butler boys trailed, 52-51, with just under five minutes left. Then, they clamped down on defense and held KSU to just two points in the next four and a half minutes. Butler’s guards held the Wildcats’ top two scorers – Jacob Pullen and Denis Clemente – to just 32 points on 11-of-30 shooting.

The Week That Was: Michigan State
The Spartans, behind legendary coach Tom Izzo, are headed to their sixth Final Four in the past 12 seasons, an absolutely remarkable feat in the frail and extremely competitive world of major college basketball.

Michigan State punched its ticket to a second straight Final Four by topping Tennessee, 70-69, in a thrilling Midwest Regional final last Sunday in St. Louis. The one-point win carried the fifth-seeded Spartans past the sixth-seeded Vols in a game that looked like a matchup of evenly-seeded teams.

Neither team ever held a double-digit lead, as MSU and Tennessee fought until the final horn to see who would advance to Indianapolis. Tennessee had a chance to take the lead with 12 seconds left, but UT’s Scotty Hopson missed a tiebreaking free throw attempt. Michigan State rebounded the ball and sped downcourt. Forward-turned-ballhandler Draymond Green made a nifty pass to teammate Raymar Morgan on the right low block. Morgan drew a foul and hit a free throw to give Sparty the lead with 1.8 seconds left. After a timeout, Tennessee missed a halfcourt heave at the buzzer, and Michigan State had done the deed again.

Outlook & Pick:
Both of these teams were number five seeds in their respective regions, so they’re evenly matched. Butler is playing in its home city and is healthier than the Spartans, who will be without point guard Kalin Lucas and will have two players – forward Delvon Roe and guard Chris Allen – in great pain on Saturday. (Both Roe and Allen will play.) Michigan State’s big advantage comes from its coach. Tom Izzo has earned a reputation for being the best March coach of the past decade, better than Duke’s Mike Krzyzewski, who will be coaching the second game on Saturday in Indianapolis. This game should be played in the 50s and be very close. If Michigan State has a chance to take the lead in the final seconds, Izzo will draw up a set play that will get the job done. Sparty will win by a single basket.

College Basketball Betting Pick: Michigan State
Article Courtesy of Dave D – Betus.com RSS Feed – Featured on Handicapperspicks.com

Northern Iowa vs. UNLV
Free Pick: UNLV -1 (March 18th – John Ryan)
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The 8/9 matchups are always very competitive games and very hard to predict consistently. The sports handicapping model shows a 5* graded play on UNLV. Supporting this graded play is a series of game dependent angles based on the model projections. Here is just one, but under scores the theme that UNLV will be able to run and shooting above 40%. UNLV is 8-4 ATS this season, 24-9 ATS the past 3 seasons, and 67-39 ATS since 1997 when shooting between 40 and 46%. UNLV HC Kruger is also very good at preparing his team for an anticipated close game. Note that he is 31-12 ATS (+17.8 Units) when the line is +3 to -3; 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) in road games versus teams who average 6 or less steals/game on the season after 15+ games in all games he has coached. UNLV is also in solid roles based on their recent schedule and results. UNLV is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) in road games after playing a game as favorite this season.

Based on the projections I also like a 3* amount on the first half line. There is no doubt in my mind that UNLV will want to put as much pressure on the Ni defense as possible. By looking run on every possible transition fatigue will become a factor and NI defenders will get out of position allowing for high percentage shots by UNLV. NI did very well in conference play and statistically has a very strong defense. The emphasis is on the word statistically as they will have enormous difficulty defending the quickness and athleticism of the Rebels. Here is a first half system that under scores these points and more. It has gone 50-20 ATS for 71.4% winners since 1997. Play against neutral court teams versus the 1st half line after allowing 65 points or less 5 straight games facing an opponent after a loss by 10 points or more. Take UNLV.