MLB Picks: September 14th 2011
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Pick: Twins vs. Royals Under 8.5
On Wednesday the Free MLB Totals system is on the Under in the Twins at Royals game. Rotation numbers 923/924 at 4:10 eastern. This game fits a nice totals system that plays to the under for home favorites of -140 or higher off a home favored win scoring 4 or less runs on 10+ hits, vs an opponent off a road dog loss scoring 2 or less runs on 4 or less hits with 4 or less men left on base. If the total is less than 10 this system cashes a shade over 80%. The Twins anemic offense is averaging just 2 runs per game the past week and they have gone under in 12 of the last 12 vs losing teams. The Royals have played under in 5 of the last 6 games. They have L. Hochevar going today and he has pitched under in 7 of his last 9 starts. He opposes Twins rookie Hendricks here today and Hendricks is another Solid, September, Minnesota call up this season. In his first start he went a solid 7 innings allowing just 3 runs. Look for this one to stay under tonight. On Wednesday the Lead plays are the MLB Parlay of the Month backed with 27-2 systems. Jump on and get on the giving end of Hump day. For the free play take the Under in the Twins at Royals game. -Rob Vinciletti

Pick: New York Mets -125
Washington is 18-38 last 3 years as a road underdog of +100 to +125. Washington is scoring only 3.9 runs per game overall this year and 3.8 runs per game on the road this season. Brad Peacock makes his 2nd appearance of the year and 1st start. He has pitched in one game so far and gave up four hits in a little over an inning of work, struck out none and walked one. His ERA sits at 6.75 on the season. Mike Pelfrey has been his best at home with a 3-3 record and a 3.87 ERA. We’ll recommend a small play on NY Mets tonight! Thanks and good luck, Rocky Atkinson

Pick: Los Angeles Dodgers -138
The D-backs are playing fantastic baseball right now, but I like LA ace Kershaw to get the better of them tonight. The Dodgers have won 12 of his last 15 starts, and he has given up 1 or no earned runs in 9 of those outings. The southpaw has been nearly unhittable at home, where he is 10-1 with an ERA of 1.80. The Dodgers have won each of his last 6 home starts and 5 of his last 6 starts vs. the Diamondbacks. Hudson is having a strong season for Arizona, but he has had some difficulties on the road, where he has posted an ERA of 3.95 and the D-backs have only won 8 of his 15 starts. We’ll bet the Dodgers. -Jimmy Boyd (Handicapperspicks.com)

Free MLB Baseball Picks: September 13th 2011
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Pick: New York Mets -145
The Mets have the edge on the mound with Gee, who’s 6-3 with an ERA of 3.31 at home this season. The Mets are 5-1 in Gee’s last 6 home starts vs. a team with a losing record and 11-4 in his last 15 starts overall vs. a team with a losing record. Also, he’s 3-0 lifetime with an ERA of 3.08 in 4 starts against the Nats. Washington’s Wang has been struggling. The Nats are 0-3 in his last 3 starts, during which he posted an ERA of 4.58. Plus, he’s 0-3 with a 5.75 ERA in 4 starts against the NL East. We’ll bet the Mets. -Dave Price

Pick: Arizona Diamondbacks -129
The D-backs are on fire. They’ve won 17 of their last 20, and I expect them to keep rolling with Cy Young candidate Ian Kennedy on the hill. Kennedy is 19-4 (22-8 on the ML) with an ERA of 2.90 this season. He’s 9-0 (12-1 on the ML) with an ERA of 1.87 against division opponents, winning all 3 of his starts against the Dodgers this year. The D-backs have won each of his last 4 and 11 of his last 12 starts. Chad Billingsley is a quality starter, but he’s struggled against division foes to the tune of 4-7 (5-8 on the ML) with an ERA or 4.94. Also, the Dodgers are 0-6 in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning record and 1-5 in their last 6 home games in this series. Take Arizona. -Jimmy Boyd

Pick: San Diego Padres +146
San Francisco has folded in September, unlike a year ago, with a weak offense, 30th in runs scored and 29th in on base percentage. They are favored here with Matt Cain, though the team is 3-7 his last 10 starts. He is 0-2 against the Padres this season (5-11 all time) and has been a bit wild his last 2 starts, walking 7 in 15 innings. That offense faces Cory Luebke (3.28 ERA), who has a terrific 131-37 strikeout to walk ratio in only 120 innings. The Padres are 4-1 in Luebke’s last 5 starts with 4 days of rest. And the Giants are 3-7 in their last 10 games vs. a left-handed starter. Play the Padres. -Jim Feist (Handicapperspicks.com)

MLB Picks: July 30th 2011
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Pick: Pittsburgh Pirates +1.5 +104
The Pirates are showing value at +104 with 1.5 insurance runs to work with. Lee is struggling. The Phillies have lost 3 of his last 4 starts, and he’s been absolutely shelled in two of those outings. He gave up 5 earned on 10 hits in a 5-4 loss to a light-hitting San Diego club his last time out. McDonald, meanwhile, is sizzling. The Bucs have won each of his last 4 starts and seven of his last 8, and he hasn’t allowed more than 3 earned in any of those starts. He hasn’t allowed a single earned run in back-to-back wins over Cincy and Atlanta. We’ll take the Pirates on the run line. -Jeff Alexander

Pick: New York Mets -105
The Mets and Nats are heading in different directions, and we’ll take the one on the upswing at a nice price. The Mets have won 5 in a row while the Nationals have dropped 6 straight. Also, the Mets are 6-1 in Dickey’s last 7 starts while the Nationals are 1-4 in Marquis’ last 5 starts. The Mets have won 5 of their last 6 overall against the Nats and 5 of their last 6 in Washington. Bet the Mets. -Dave Price

Pick: Los Angeles Angels -140
A bit of a discount here with the Angels on the road and the Tigers winning by 10 runs last night, but I’ll take Dan Haren over Duane Below at this price all year. Haren has struggled a little in his last 3 starts, but he’s still 10-6 on the year with a 3.01 ERA and 1.00 WHIP. He’s opposed by untested Duane Below, who has just two starts and a 4.65 ERA for his season. I’ll take LA. -Steve Janus (Handicapperspicks.com)

MLB Picks: July 27th 2011
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Pick: Pirates vs. Braves Under 7
We look for a pitcher’s duel tonight between the Pittsburgh Pirates and Atlanta Braves. Clearly, both teams are tired after last night’s 19-inning marathon. That gives the edge to the starting pitchers in this one as the positional players will have a hard time focusing at the plate. Plus, we have two excellent starters going at it tonight. Jair Jurrjens is 12-3 with a 2.44 ERA in 18 starts for Atlanta, while Paul Maholm is 6-10 with a 3.26 ERA in 21 starts for Pittsburgh. The UNDER is 14-6-1 in Maholm’s 21 starts this year. These two have also been dominant when facing their respective opponents. Jurrjens is 2-3 with a 2.35 ERA in five lifetime starts (Under 4-1) versus Pittsburgh, while Maholm is 1-1 with a 1.64 ERA in five lifetime starts (Under 5-0) versus Atlanta. Take the UNDER 7 runs in this one. -Black Widow

Pick: Mets vs. Reds Over 9.5
The Mets Bobby Pelfrey hasn’t been missing many bats with his 5.29 ERA over his last three starts. The NYM is 15-4 to the high in L19 as a RD of 25-50 cents. Bronson Arroyo is 1-2 with a 7.36 ERA over his L5 starts and the Reds 12-5 to the over as HFs at this price. Play the over and don’t blink. -Dennis Macklin

Pick: Cincinnati Reds -138
Play on Cincinnati at 7:10 ET. After losing 2 straight here at home to the Mets, look for the Reds to win tonight. They are 31-21 off a loss this season and 32-19 off BB losses the L2 seasons. The Mets are 13-33 in road games when off back to back wins by 2 runs or less. NY starter Pelfrey has a 3-9 TSR as an underdog this year. Cincinnati starter Arroyo has a 7-3 TSR if the team lost its last game. 10* on Cincinnati. -Tom Freese (Handicapperspicks.com)

MLB Picks: July 15th 2011
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Pick: Indians vs. Orioles Under 9
With the O/U line currently having climbed from 8.5 to nine (at some shops) I believe we’re getting some solid value with the “under.” Tomlin gets the call for the Tribe. He’s got a stingy 3.15 ERA with an excellent 0.85 WHIP his last three starts. Each of those was of the “quality” variety. He hasn’t beaten himself. Over those three starts, he walked just two – striking out 11. Note that the last two of those games finished with exactly nine combined runs – emphasizing the importance of getting nine rather than 8.5 here. Note that Tomlin was tough against Baltimore back in the spring. In six innings, he allowed only two runs. Admittedly, Arrieta hasn’t been quite as good as Tomlin. However, after four straight road starts, he should be thrilled to finally pitch at home again. In his last start here, he tossed seven shutout innings vs. Tampa. In fact, six of his last seven home starts, including three straight, have been of the “quality” variety. He’s been excellent in seven of nine starts here, while struggling in the other two. The O’s have seen the “under” go a lucrative 34-17-1 the past few seasons, when playing a home game where the line ranged from +100 to -125. Assuming you can get nine, consider a play on the Under. -Ben Burns

Pick: New York Mets +101
Doc’s Sports COMP Pick: Take #954 Ny Mets over Philadelphia (7:10pm est): I love to bet against rookie pitchers on the road, especially in highly intense divisional match-up like we have here in this one. Phillies starter Vance Worley has done a really good job so far in his short stretch of games in the Philadelphia starting rotation but keep in mind his last four good starts, three of them came against the light hitting Marlins, A’s and Mariners. Things don’t get much easier than pitching against that trio of offenses. In those four games Worley didn’t manage to go above a 2-1 ratio of strikeouts to walks either, which shows he was far from dominating on the hill. The Mets counter with knuckle ball pitcher R.A Dickey in this one. Dickey started the season off a little slow but has been very strong since May 20th. In those last ten starts Dickey has posted an ERA of 2.41 and has been even more impressive at home with an ERA of under 2.00 during this time. The Mets are 8-3 in Dickey’s last 11 home starts versus teams with winning records like the Phillies bring into this game tonight. Overall the Mets have won four straight games with Dickey on the hill. Big game for the Mets here as they have to decide soon if they are going to play for this season or pack it up and trade off their key pieces to build a better team for the future. This series may go a long way in deciding all of that. Overall the Mets rank higher than Philadelphia in hitting and have the better pitcher on the mound in this one. Both of those things combined with playing at home as an underdog makes them way too good to pass up on here. Take the Mets in this one. -Doc’s Sports

Pick: San Francisco Giants -133
This is a very decent price to get Tim Lincecum and the San Francisco Giants at Friday. Lincecum is having yet another tremendous season, going 7-7 with a 3.06 ERA and 1.200 WHIP with 132 strikeouts in 123 1/3 innings. Lincecum has pitched his best on the road, going 4-4 with a 2.53 ERA and 1.182 WHIP in 10 starts. He’ll be up against Dustin Moseley, who is 1-4 with a 3.83 ERA and 1.383 WHIP in eight home starts this year for San Diego. Lincecum is 6-4 with a 2.20 ERA in 15 lifetime starts versus San Diego. The Giants have won three straight and five of six overall to sit atop the NL West division at 53-40. San Diego has lost six straight, and they’ve scored a combined 4 runs in their last five games overall. The Padres are hitting .217 and scoring 2.7 runs/game at home this year. Moseley is 2-13 (-10.6 Units) against the money line as an underdog of +100 or higher over the last 2 seasons. Take the Giants on the Money Line. -Black Widow (Handicapperspicks.com)

MLB Picks: June 24th 2011
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Pick: Detroit Tigers -140
This game features a pair of southpaw starters. That should favor the Tigers. Detroit is a profitable 70-48 (+20.2) against left-handed starters, the past few seasons. That includes a 15-7 (+7.3) mark this season. On the other hand, Arizona is 10-11 against southpaw starters this season and a money-burning 46-73 (-28.6) the past few seasons. The Diamondbacks are scoring only 4.1 runs per game vs. southpaw starters, hitting a mere 0.235 in those games. Conversely, the Tigers are hitting .264 against left-handers, averaging 4.5 runs in those games. While he hasn’t had much help from his team, Coke has a very solid 1.065 WHIP at home. That’s far better than Duke’s 1.446 WHIP on the road. Speaking of home/road numbers … Even with a win yesterday, the Dbax are still an ugly 79-120 (-23.2) on the road, the past few seasons. During that time, the Tigers, who had yesterday off, are 125-74 (+31) here at Detroit. All things considered, the price seems very reasonable. Consider laying the wood. -Ben Burns

Pick: Los Angeles Angels -127
LA Angels are 31-14 last 3 years in Inter-League play. LA Angels bullpen has a 3.52 ERA overall this year. LA Dodgers are scoring only 3 runs per game at home this year. Dan Haren is 6-5 with a 2.96 ERA overall this year and 4-2 with a 3.47 ERA on the road this season. Rubby De La Rosa is 0-1 with a 9.64 ERA at home this year. LA Angels are 5-1 at the LA Dodgers the past 3 years. Haren has a 3.11 ERA overall vs LA Dodgers since 1997. We’ll recommend a small play on the LA Angels tonight! Thanks and good luck, Rocky Atkinson

Pick: New York Mets +135
The Mets are quietly playing well, 6-2 in their last 8 vs. a team with a winning record. One reason is righty Mike Pelfrey, who has a 2.05 ERA his last three starts walking none in 22 innings! And the Texas Rangers have never faced him before. The Rangers are 3-8 in their last 11 games vs. a right-handed starter and 3-7 in Matt Harrison’s last 10 starts. And the Mets are 4-1 in the last 5 meetings between these teams. Play the NY Mets. -Jim Feist (Handicapperspicks.com)