NFL Picks: December 26th 2010
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Pick: San Diego Chargers -7.5
There’s only one way for San Diego to have a shot at making it to the playoffs this year. The Chargers know they need to win out and get a little help along the way. Fortunately for the Bolts, they close with Cincinnati and Denver – two NFL teams that own a combined 6-22 SU and 9-19 ATS record! If you’re worried about backing this warm-weather San Diego team in the snow and cold at Cincinnati, rest your mind at ease. As a December guest, the Bolts are a perfect 10-0 SU (6-4 ATS) dating back to the 2006 season. The Chargers have been one of the best in the league overall too posting a sensational 79-40 SU and 70-44-5 ATS record in their last 119 games. Those two team trends are nice but this next technical situation is what really makes this investment an attractive one. According to my high-octane NFL database, game 15 home teams that enter off a SU and ATS home win are a soft 24-35 ATS provided they close the regular season on foreign soil. Since 2001, NFL clubs in this specific situation are on a woeful 5-17 ATS run! Cincinnati has dropped 37 of its last 61 to the Las Vegas pointspread and performed just as badly against teams from the AFC West posting a weak 18-39 SU and 23-34 ATS record. Without the services of TO, the Bengals will lose one of their best offensive weapons. That’s a bad thing matched up against a Chargers defense that has limited their last two opponents to seven points combined! Lay the lumber here men. Take San Diego. Thank you and best of luck, Tom Stryker.

Pick: Detroit Lions +3.5
The Lions have been battling all season with six losses coming by 5 of fewer points. They enter today’s contest with lots of momentum off back-to-back wins against Green Bay and Tampa Bay – winning teams. Detroit has become even more competitive lately because it has been able to get its ground game going, racking up 371 yards rushing the last two weeks. The Dolphins have been lousy at home this season, going just 1-6. From the perspective of the point spread, Miami has long been troubled at home. In fact, the Dolphins are a pathetic 17-44-1 ATS in their last 62 home games. It is also worth noting that they are 6-28 ATS in their last 34 games as a home favorite. Going a step further we find that Miami is 0-8 ATS in its last eight games as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points. The Lions have been cashing tickets all season to the tune of 10-3-1 ATS. With plenty of momentum, and playing a team that has been outscored by 6.6 ppg on its home field this season, we’ll take the Lions and the points. -Jimmy Boyd

Pick: Oakland Raiders +3
Indianapolis/Oakland 4:05: Pretty good matchup for Oakland with a top-tier running game with 1000+ yard rusher McFadden living up to his lofty expectations this year. Sure, the Colts stopped a top-tier runner last week in Jones-Drew; however, McFadden offers a different challenge with his shiftyness and breakaway speed. His off tackle runs will surely keep the great bookends of Indianapolis –Mathis and Freeney — from running up field on QB Campbell. The Raiders’ defense, on the other hand, has a ball hawking secondary led by corner Asomugha. And although Manning gets RB Addai back, he won’t have Collie (concussion) and guard Jamey Richard is still questionable (hip). The Raiders have covered 4 of the last 5 in this series and, unlike the last decade, still are in post-season contention. Indy sports a 2-7 ATS mark in week 16 and we’ll take the points here. -Vic Duke