Oklahoma vs. Oklahoma State
Prediction: Oklahoma +3.5 (December 3rd 2011)
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Oh what could have been if Oklahoma State did not lose to Iowa State. We had Iowa State +2250 that night and are quite happy Oklahoma State lost that game, but now I wish they had won so this game had more meaning, but for now it’s just the Big 12 Championship in a year where the Big 12 only has ten teams. Oklahoma State isn’t the only team to choke away their season dreams as Oklahoma lost at home to an awful Texas Tech team as -28 point favorites just to put things in perspective. There is a small chance that if Oklahoma State blows Oklahoma out that they could get the votes past Alabama but I just do not see that happening and they definitely do not deserve it. Do you think Alabama would ever lost to Iowa State or Texas Tech? Not a chance. The nation will have to settle for a SEC National Championship.
Why Oklahoma Can Win?
Defense! Unlike Oklahoma State who are ranked 107th in total defense Oklahoma is ranked 52nd and they are 30th vs. the run and 28th in scoring defense while Oklahoma State is ranked 65th. Oklahoma is 7th in the nation in sacks, while Oklahoma State has only allowed 11 on the season but they have faced 6 team defenses that are ranked 92nd or worse in sacks this year. In their only game vs. a team better than Oklahoma in sacks they barely got by beating Texas A&M 30-29.
We saw what talented linebackers A.J. Klein and Jake Knott did against Oklahoma State not allowing for yards after the catch and shutting down the running game well Oklahoma has more talent and they should be able to keep the mid range passing game in check all day long. This defense has allowed just 2.74 yards per carry on the road this season.
Offensively, Oklahoma is no slouch and in fact it’s the best opposing offense that Oklahoma State has faced all year as the Sooners are nearly a mirror image offensively compared with the Cowboys. They are 4th in total offense 3rd in passing, 42nd in rushing, and 8th in scoring offense. It starts up front where Oklahoma has allowed the nation’s fewest sacks. Despite losing their star WR Ryan Broyles and RB Dominique Whaley the offense has continued to roll on.
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Why Oklahoma St Can Win?
Maybe they are due, I mean they have not beaten Oklahoma since 2002 and they have every advantage in terms of preparation going into this game having an extra 8 days off. They’ve had a lot of time to be ticked off about losing to Iowa State and I think they can certainly come out like they are on a mission. Also it does not hurt that Oklahoma is dinged up quite a bit.
Turnover margin is another huge reason why Oklahoma State has won and covered games this year. They have forced 37 turnovers on the year and are +16 in turnover margin. This can be a huge advantage if they can force Oklahoma into some turnovers early. Along with that advantage they have the best offense that Oklahoma has faced all year long. Guess what, when Oklahoma went up against high octane offense they struggled especially against teams that can pass. I mean Texas Tech’s Seth Doege threw for 441 yards, Robert Friffin had 479 yards, and Ryan Tannehill threw for 379 yards. Brandon Weeden is better than all three and he has the best WR in the nation in Blackmon.
Third Down & Red Zone
This is an important aspect to my handicapping and my sports picks. Let’s kick it off with third down offense and defense:
Oklahoma State is converting 51.57% of their 3rd downs and 48.62% in conference play; While Oklahoma is converting just 43.71% and 42.74% in conference play. Defensively Oklahoma are allowing just 30.12% conversions on third downs, 28.93% in conference play; While Oklahoma State are allowing 41.85% and 42.96% in conference play. Basically Cowboys have the advantage on offense and the Sooners have the advantage on defense.
Red Zone, can teams put 7 points on the board or settle for field goals? It’s a big question and a big factor when I look at teams especially in a game where the spread is only 3 points.
Oklahoma State is converting 66.20% of their 71 attempts into TD’s in the red zone and they are at 62.5% in conference play; While Oklahoma 60% overall on 60 attempts and 62.79% in conference play. Defensively Oklahoma State is allowing 50% overall TD’s, 53.13% in conference play while Oklahoma allowing 51.72% and 60% in conference play, but far less attempts 29 to Oklahoma State’s 42 attempts allowed.
Trends:
• Sooners are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a road underdog.
• Sooners are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games following a ATS loss.
• Sooners are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
• Sooners are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
• Sooners are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games after allowing less than 275 total yards in their previous game.
• Cowboys are 21-4-2 ATS in their last 27 games as a favorite of 3.5-10.0.
• Cowboys are 48-19-2 ATS in their last 69 games as a favorite.
• Cowboys are 17-7 ATS in their last 24 games as a home favorite.
• Sooners are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 meetings.
Freddy’s Free Pick: Oklahoma +3.5 (2.2* FREE Play)
Basically for me it comes down to defense. The only reason this is not a premium maxed out play is the injuries on Oklahoma’s side as well as the extra time Oklahoma State has had to prepare, but I still think Oklahoma is the better team they have a defense that can make stops and the advantage Oklahoma State has in turnover margin won’t be a factor as both teams turn the ball over around the same amount overall this year. Also when it came to 3rd down defense and red zone defense on the road Oklahoma got better showing that they are capable of stepping it up in hostile environments. I think Oklahoma takes this game and Oklahoma State is unable to emotionally get over their loss to Iowa State. -Freddy Wills (Handicapperspicks.com)