College Basketball Picks: January 29th 2011
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Pick: NC State +10.5
Getting swept in the season series last year figures to be all the motivation NC State needs to take the Heels right down to the wire Saturday. And fortunately for us, a disappointing result in its last game at Clemson assures us that the Wolfpack will be extremely focused. Consider that NC State is 24-9 ATS in its last 33 games following an embarrassing road loss in which it was held to fewer than 60 points. The Pack is actually bouncing back to win by an average score of 72.7 to 69.4 in this situation. The time to fade this overvalued UNC squad is now. After all, the Tar Heels are 0-7 ATS after 2 or more consecutive wins this season. UNC is also just 2-11 ATS in home games when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 80%) over the last 3 seasons. We’ll take the points. -Jeff Alexander

Pick: Georgia +11.5
UK has been great last few years but one team that always give them trouble is this GEO team. In fact the early beat down to start conference play was just a month ago. Road team has dominated ATS in this head to head series winning 6 of last 8 games. This young UK team doesn’t rebound or defend enough to cover this big number. -Craig Trapp

Pick: Northwestern +11.5
The Buckeyes are coming off a big win over Purdue, but we can’t overlook the fact that 5 of their last 7 Big Ten wins have come by 5 points or less. Off back-to-back defeats, the Wildcats will be focused and ready to go after the target on Ohio State’s back. Consider that plays on underdogs of 10 or more points after 2 or more consecutive losses, provided they are up against an opponent that has rattled off 9 or more consecutive wins, are 62-33 ATS the last 5 seasons. The Wildcats are an extremely dangerous team on their home floor, where they have covered the spread in 11 of their last 14. Plus, they are 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 games as an underdog of 7.0-12.5 points. As you might expect, odds makers have overvalued the top team in the nation here because of the public betting attention a No. 1 demands. We’ll take the points. -Jimmy Boyd

Pick: Oklahoma State -2
The Texas Tech Red Raiders are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 home games and 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games as an underdog. The Cowboys are 37-12-2 ATS in their last 51 games as a favorite, 42-16-2 ATS in their last 60 games as a favorite of 6.5 points or less and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a road favorite. Off back-to-back defeats, expect the Cowboys to bounce back strong against this inferior Texas Tech squad. Lay the points. -Dave Price

Pick: UCLA -2
On Saturday the Free NCAAB Play is on UCLA. Game 563 at 3:30 eastern. UCLA has won 16 of 18 vs teams with a losing record. They are 5-1 after allowing 80 or more, 29-7 vs teams who score less than 65 points per game and 10-4 ats as a road favorite of 3 or less. Today they take on an Arizona St team that is 7-16 as a home dog of 3 or less and 3-8 vs winning teams. In conference play they have struggled losing 7 of 8 thus far. As an underdog they have lost 6 of 7. Look for UCLA to get the win and cover in this Pac 10 affair. On Saturday I have 5 Big plays including the NCAAB Sun Belt Conference Game of the Year and 3 Perfect Angle Power plays. In the NBA its another Cutting edge 100% NBA System Game of the Week. For the free play take UCLA. -Rob Vinciletti (Handicapperspicks.com)