Expert’s Week 10 NFL Picks for November 13th 2011

November 13, 2011 By

Expert’s Week 10 NFL Picks: November 13th 2011
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NFL Pick: Denver Broncos +3
Kansas City gained some attention when they ripped off 4 consecutive wins after opening the season at 0-3. But they beat three terrible teams over that stretch and got extremely fortunate in their Monday night win over the Chargers. The Chiefs got back to reality last week in their 31-3 home blowout loss to the Dolphins. Kansas City was getting the breaks during their winning streak; they benefited from a remarkable 13/6 turnover margin in those 4 games, including a 10/6 margin against the Raiders and Chargers. An easy schedule plus getting lucky in the turnover game is a great recipe to string together some wins, and that is exactly what Kansas City did.

We often see teams winning on “good fortune” become overvalued and this is when we can take advantage of the public perception of a team. Despite their recent success, the Chiefs are still 26th in the league in scoring offense, 23rd in the league in points allowed, 21st in yardage allowed, and 27th in offensive passing yards per game. Kansas City is not really a team that deserves to be 4-4 on the season.

Denver has played much better football since Tim Tebow too over as the starting quarterback. The Broncos have gone 2-1 in those games as their rushing game has been phenomenal; they’ve run for 183, 195, and 298 yards with Tebow under center. Overall, the Broncos are 5th in the league in rushing; they average 148 yards per game on 5.3 yards per rush. Denver will find room to run against the Chiefs’ defense which is 17th in the league against the run (120 yards per game on 4.1 yards per rush). Since 2007, the Chiefs are just 13-23 ATS at home including 3-11-1 ATS as a home favorite. Kansas City should not be favored over any team so we’ll take the points with Denver in this game. -Steve Merril

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NFL Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers -3
The Bengals have surprised everyone with their 6-2 start to the season, but I don’t think the magic is going to hold up over the second half. The Bengals have played an incredibly easy schedule up to this point. Their only win against a team who currently has a winning record is a 23-20 home win over Buffalo, a game in which they trailed by 14 points. The Steelers are going to be one pissed off bunch after suffering their second loss of the season to the Baltimore Ravens. Earlier this season the Steelers responded from a loss to Baltimore by coming out the next week and beating the Seahawks 24-0. Expect a similar result in this one, as the Bengals just don’t match up in talent. Pittsburgh is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 road games vs. a team with a winning home record, 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite of 3.5-10.0, and 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games following a S.U. loss. -Steve Janus (Handicapperspicks.com)

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Steelers vs. Ravens Pick & Odds: Sunday Night Football: November 6th 2011

November 6, 2011 By

Steelers vs. Ravens
Odds: Pittsburgh Steelers -3 Over/Under 42.5 (November 6th 2011)
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NFL Picks for November 6th 2011: Bet The Falcons, Dolphins And Steelers

November 5, 2011 By

NFL Picks: November 6th 2011
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Pick: Atlanta Falcons -7
The NFL season has hit the halfway point and the Colts (0-8) are still winless with QB Manning on the sideline. They’ll host a 4-3 Falcons squad that won’t let down against the Colts as they need a victory to stay in the Playoff race behind New Orleans and Tampa Bay in the NFC South division. After a disappointing 2-3 SU start to the season, Atlanta is finally playing better football, winning back-to-back games for the first time this season over Carolina and Detroit before their “Bye” week last Sunday. Atlanta QB Ryan is 7-4 ATS as a road Favorite and should have no trouble finding open receivers against this Colt’s defense that’s allowing 31.5 points per game and have allowed at least 23 points in every game this season! -Carlo Campanella

Pick: Miami Dolphins +4.5
Dolphins (+) over Chiefs- No, I have not lost my senses as you might remember I posted Miami against the New York Giants last week and week collected the cash. Having spent the last week in Miami these fans are on a ‘Suck for Luck’ campaign not realizing that this organization (?) will NEVER have Luck in a Dolphins uniform. They really have no idea what it takes to build a winner and Luck knows this and will hold Miami for ransom and they probably won’t draft him if they had the chance anyway. The community may have quit on the Dolphins but they haven’t quit on each other. This line is way too low as the Chiefs have won four straight and will get caught look ahead to next weeks division game against Denver and the New England. In a shocker…MIAMI! -Chip Chirimbes

Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers -3.5
Odds have the Steelers as a 3-point favorite at home, where they are 4-1 SU and 2-2-1 ATS in their last five meetings with the Ravens, with three overs and a push when it comes to the total. The Ravens laid a 35-7 beating on the Steelers in Week 1, and you could tell that the Ravens put everything they had into that game, but they’re in the middle of a slump. The Steelers have taken that loss to the Ravens and channeled it to the point that some are calling them the team to beat in the AFC. This game comes down to quarterbacking, and you have to take Roethlisberger over Flacco every day of the week, even after what happened in Week 1. It also helps that the Steelers are coming off a win over another AFC power, so they’ll be focused. Take Pittsburgh to cover. -Ray Monohan (Handicapperspicks.com)

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NFL Picks for October 23rd 2011: Bet The Detroit Lions and Pittsburgh Steelers

October 23, 2011 By

NFL Picks: October 23rd 2011
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NFL Pick: Detroit Lions -4
Atlanta needed three Carolina turnovers to win last week. Without those game-changing plays, it would have been a different outcome for the Falcons. They were out-yarded on the field (368-325) and out-gained 5.9 to 5.6 yards per play. Atlanta trailed going into the fourth quarter before scoring 17 points; they needed 26 plays to gain 142 yards over the final 15 minutes of the game. So the scoreboard reads like a blowout win for Atlanta, but it was hardly that. And the Falcons are taking a major step-up in class here against the Lions, especially with this game being played on the road with Detroit coming off a loss.

We can forgive the Lions for losing last Sunday. They were in a terrible situational spot after winning a highly emotional Monday night game against a divisional opponent just six days before. The Lions were flat against San Francisco, and that was clearly evident by watching the game. Detroit’s offense holds a huge match-up edge in this game. The Lions have a terrific passing game led by QB Matthew Stafford. They are averaging 277 passing yards per game on 7.0 yards per pass attempt. Atlanta’s defense has been dreadful against the pass this year as they are allowing opponents 283 yards per game on a whopping 8.0 yards per pass attempt. The Falcons have been out-gained through the air in all but one game this season so there’s no reason for the Lions not to a field day against the weak Falcons’ secondary.

Detroit’s defense has gone unnoticed because of their offense. The Lions are ranked in the top 15 in the league overall and they present huge problems for opposing offensive lines with their strength along the defensive line. They rank 6th in the league against the pass (205 yards per game on 5.5 yards per pass) and they are allowing opponents to convert less than 30% of their third down attempts. With WR Julio Jones still questionable, the Falcons will be hard-pressed to stretch the Lions’ defense through the air. Detroit is in a great bounce back spot at home to notch a solid win over a vastly overrated Atlanta team. -Steve Merril

NFL Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers -3.5
Pittsburgh is tied for 2nd in the AFC North with Cincinnati at 4-2. Their defense is yielding just 17.0 PPG and top the league in both total yards allowed (270.5) and passing yards allowed (157.7). Safety, Troy Polamalu has been cleared to play after a concussion issue. The stifling Steelers “D” will get to Cardinals QB, Kevin Kolb and force him to make mistakes. Arizona has dropped 4 in a row SU and their L3 ATS. They have averaged a mere 17.0 PPG in their current 4 game funk. None of those 4 defenses are on the same level as the stop unit they must face today. There is a reason why ‘Zona is 1-4. RB Mendenhall will shred the Arizona defense while the Pitt “D” will add to Kevin Kolbs 16 sacks. The Steelers are 7-3 ATS their L10 games played vs. teams with a losing record and 6-2 ATS their L8 games played as a favorite. The Cardinals are 6-14 ATS their L20 overall and 3-7 ATS their L10 games played as a ‘dog. Take Pittsburgh. Thank you. -Joseph D’Amico (Handicapperspicks.com)

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Eagles vs. Steelers Preseason Point Spread & Pick: August 18th 2011

August 18, 2011 By

Philadelphia Eagles vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
Preseason Point Spread: Pittsburgh -3 Over/Under 34 (August 18th 2011)
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