Free MLB Baseball Betting Picks: July 28th 2011
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Pick: Boston Red Sox -1.5 -140
We’ll side with the Boston Red Sox Thursday on the Run Line as they send Ace Josh Beckett to the bump. The Red Sox are 19-4 in their last 23 games overall, winning 16 times by two runs or more. Kansas City send Luke Hochevar to the mound, who is 6-8 with a 5.29 ERA and 1.366 WHIP in 21 starts this season. Beckett is 9-3 with a 2.07 ERA and 0.905 WHIP in 19 starts, and 4-0 with a 1.61 ERA and 0.933 WHIP in eight home outings. He is the frontrunner to win the AL Cy Young award with what he has done this season. Kansas City is 1-9 against the run line (-11.3 Units) after allowing 12 runs or more over the last 2 seasons, losing by 5.3 runs/game in this spot. The Red Sox are 20-11 against the run line (+12.4 Units) in day games this season. Beckett is 10-1 against the run line (+9.0 Units) when playing against a bad team (Win Pct. 38% to 46%) in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons. Take the Red Sox on the Run Line. -Black Widow
Pick: Oakland Athletics -122
Tampa Bay seems to have lost their motivation to come to ballpark. A lot of that probably has to do with the fact that they are coming to terms with the fact that they aren’t going to make the playoffs. Not only are they not hitting the ball, but they aren’t pitching worth a crap either. While the A’s are also pretty much out of the playoff race, they are still playing hard and doing whatever it takes to bring home a win. Oakland is 7-3 in their last 10 games, and I think this team will be excited for the chance to sweep the Rays today. The A’s will start Rich Harden, who is coming off back-to-back strong starts. He allowed just 3 runs over 7 innings in a 4-3 win (no decision) over the Angels on July, 16 and held the Yankees to just 2 runs in his last start. Tampa Bay is just 2-16 in their last 18 games after losing the first 3 games of a series, while the A’s are 6-2 in their last 8 during game 4 of a series. -Steve Janus
Pick: Toronto Blue Jays -155
Toronto has won 20 of its last 23 home games against Baltimore and will have an excellent chance to build on this run with Baltimore’s Bergesen stepping to the hill. That’s because the Orioles have lost 11 of his last 13 starts. Plus, the Blue Jays are 4-0 in Villanueva’s last 4 starts versus a team with a losing record. Take the Jays. -Dave Price
Pick: Texas Rangers -152
After back-to-back losses to the Twins, expect the Rangers to come storming back to earn a split in the series. One thing you don’t want to do is make a habit out of fading the Rangers at home off 2 or more losses. That’s because they are 17-2 the last 2 seasons in home games after 2 or more consecutive losses, winning by an average of 3.3 runs/game in this situation. Baker hasn’t been quite as good on the road this year and the Rangers have won each of Harrison’s last 4 starts. We’ll take Texas on the money line. -Jeff Alexander (Handicapperspicks.com)

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