Week 8 NFL Picks: October 30th 2011
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Week 8 NFL Pick: Detroit Lions -2.5
The Denver Broncos were extremely lucky to beat the Miami Dolphins last week. Tim Tebow made a couple of nice plays at the end of the game, but overall his performance wasn’t good at all. Detroit is by far the better team here and is showing some great value after losing back-to-back games to the San Francisco 49ers and Atlanta Falcons, two of the top teams in the NFC. The big difference in this game is the Lions front four on defense. I believe they will be able to put a ton of pressure on Tebow and are fast enough to keep him from breaking loose for big runs. Denver will also be without running back Willis McGahee, who was really playing well before going down with an injury. Denver is 0-7-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a ATS win and 3-7 ATS in their last 10 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Detroit is 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 games overall, 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 road games, and 4-0-2 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite of 0.5-3.0. BET THE LIONS! -Steve Janus

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Week 8 NFL Pick: Browns vs. 49ers Under 38.5
The San Francisco 49ers host the Cleveland Browns Sunday in a match-up between two of the worst offenses in the NFL. Both teams are solid defensively, and I certainly expect a low-scoring defensive battle in this one Sunday. Cleveland ranks 23rd in the NFL in total offense (308.3 yards/game), and they are scoring just 16.2 points/game. The Browns are 28th in rushing (91.2 yards/game) as well. A big reason for their struggles on the ground is because they have been playing without Peyton Hillis. Hillis, tight end Benjamin Watson and wide receiver Mohamed Massaquoi are all doubtful to play Sunday due to various injuries. These are arguably their three biggest weapons on offense, so moving the football will not come easy for them Sunday. The Browns do feature one of the most underrated stop units in the league. Cleveland ranks 4th in the NFL in total defense (291.0 yards/game), including 1st against the pass (171.5 yards/game). San Francisco ranks 27th in the league in total offense (302.5 yards/game) and 11th in total defense (335.7 yards/game). They have the 31st-ranked passing offense (171.0 yards/game) and the 2nd-ranked run defense (74.7 yards/game). The 49ers are allowing 16.2 points/game. The UNDER is 5-1 in Browns last 6 games as an underdog, and 4-0 in Browns last 4 games as a road dog. I don’t expect either team to top 20 points in this one. Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday. -Jack Jones (Handicapperspicks.com)

Sunday afternoon will provide you with another chance to sink your teeth into the latest regular season NFL odds when the Denver Broncos kick their season off on the road against the Jacksonville Jaguars.
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Denver Broncos vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Game Date/Time: Sunday, September 12th, 1:00 ET
Game Location: Jacksonville Municipal Stadium, Jacksonville, FL
TV/Radio Broadcast: CBS, Westwood One, Sirius

NFL Odds: Denver Broncos (+2.5) -110 vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (-2.5) -110: Over/Under 40

Will this be the professional debut of Tim Tebow? It makes a lot of sense to bring the former Florida Gator into this game at some point for Denver, as this is essentially a de facto home game for Tebow, who played his high school ball in Jacksonville. It’s bad enough for the Jags that the crowd probably wouldn’t be a sell out without Denver fans in attendance, but if No. 15 comes into the game, all of a sudden, there will be a lot of people cheering for the visitors.

As for the rest of the Broncos that will take the field on Sunday, this is clearly a great spot for Kyle Orton to be in. Yes, Orton now has Tebow looking over his shoulder for his starting job, but thanks to a good training camp, he has already cashed in with a lucrative contract extension and will get to take on a defense that isn’t adept at rushing the passer and doesn’t have the greatest secondary in the world.

Speaking of quarterbacks looking over their shoulders, what about David Garrard in Jacksonville? He was clearly outperformed by Luke McCown in the preseason and might be in a spot in which he could be benched if he doesn’t play well.

The running game might be hurt by Maurice Jones-Drew’s nagging knee issues. He isn’t expected to miss this game, as he isn’t even on the injury report, but if Jones-Drew goes down, the Jags don’t have the depth behind him to make up for his absence.

Keep a close eye on Mike Sims-Walker, who was raved about in training camp. Many think that this could be a 1,500 yard receiver this season if Garrard (or some Jacksonville quarterback) can get the ball to him.

NFL Betting Insider Tip: For whatever reason, Denver tends to get off to a high flying start early in the season, as the Broncos have played seven of their L/10 games ‘over’ the ‘total’ in the month of September.

We tend to believe that the Jags are going to be doing more throwing the ball this year if the preseason is any indication. If that’s the case, these two teams might be in for a bit of a shootout. Both could easily get into the 20s, which would be more than enough to cash this ticket.

The latest NFL odds have this ‘total’ at 40; it’s not high enough!

My NFL Predictions: Denver Broncos/Jacksonville Jaguars Over 40

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BetUS Sportsbook is back with another fantastic NFL line analysis in the Week 4 NFL preseason duel between the Denver Broncos and the Minnesota Vikings from Minneapolis.
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Denver Broncos vs. Minnesota Vikings
Game Date/Time: Thursday, September 2nd, 8:00 ET
Game Location: Mall of America Field, Minneapolis, MN
TV/Radio Broadcast: Local TV, Westwood One, Sirius

NFL Football Odds: Denver Broncos (+4.5) -110 vs. Minnesota Vikings (-4.5) -110: Over/Under 35

The key to figuring out the winner of the football game line in this one is going to be quarterback play.

Quite simply, for the visiting Broncos, their QBs just aren’t quite there yet. Neither Brady Quinn nor Tim Tebow is completing more than 57 percent of their passes, and neither has even reached 200 passing yards yet in the preseason. The two have also combined to throw just one touchdown against two INTs.

Denver is clearly also not being helped by its defense, which is allowing 385.3 yards per game, the second worst total in the NFL. Will the ‘D’ that picked off three passes and made life a living hell for the quarterbacks of the Pittsburgh Steelers show up? Or will the one that seemingly tanked its first two games of the year rear its ugly head?

If it is the latter, the backup QBs for the Vikings are going to make Denver pay. The Vikes, without a doubt, have the strong trio of quarterbacks right now in the league, and even if Brett Favre doesn’t play (or doesn’t play much), there is no reason not to believe in the combination of Tarvaris Jackson and Sage Rosenfels.

Look for Rosenfels to get the majority of the reps once again for the men in purple and gold, as this will probably be the last time that he ever steps foot on the turf for his current team. Rosenfels has looked sharp all preseason long, completing 63.8 percent of his passes for 392 yards with four scores and no picks.

Even the fourth man on the depth chart, rookie Joe Webb has looked great, throwing for 91 yards and two TDs and rushing for another 78 yards and a score.

NFL Insider Tip: These two teams are clearly in different mindsets right now in terms of recent form. Denver is just 2-5 ATS and 1-6 SU in its L/7 games overall, while Minnesota has beaten the football game line in five of its L/6.

That being said, we tend to believe that the backups for the Vikings are just all around better than they are for the Broncos. Yes, we understand that Tebow generally refuses to lose as a starter, but this is a game that isn’t exactly for keeps. Go with Minnesota, and you’ll be a winner against the football game line on Thursday night.

My NFL Predictions: Minnesota Vikings -4.5

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